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President Trump’s signature on a deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz set off a 60-day clock starting Thursday to hone the details of what administration officials hope will be a final agreement to end Tehran’s nuclear weapons ambitions and shore up other issues.
The 14-point, relatively vague memorandum of understanding (MOU), signed by Trump late Wednesday at the Palace of Versailles, is void of significant Iranian concessions on its nuclear program, weapons arsenal and its long-standing practice of funding militant proxies throughout the Middle East. Trump insists these issues will be dealt with over the next two months.
It does allow Iran to gain $300 billion in funds to rebuild — if the country honors the agreement — and Tehran in exchange has agreed to not to build nuclear weapons and hand over its enriched uranium, the details of which are expected to be hammered out.
Those talks are sure to be difficult, with Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei saying he authorized the MOU’s signing even as he “held a different view.”
Critics speculate the two sides may never be able to reach an agreement that goes beyond the terms outlined in the memo, let alone in just two months.
In comparison, it took the Obama administration 20 months of negotiations to reach the original Iran nuclear deal, known as the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
Here are five key issues in the talks.
Obtaining a nuclear weapon
One of Trump’s main objectives in entering the Iran war was to prevent Tehran from ever obtaining a nuclear weapon, a goal he again stated during a Wednesday news conference at the Group of Seven (G7) summit in France.
But in addition to preventing the regime from building its own nuclear weapons, he stressed Iran could never “procure” a nuclear weapon.
The new memorandum states as much, with Iran reaffirming “that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons.”
How that will be enforced is expected to be decided in the next round of negotiations.
Dismantling Iran’s missile program, one of Trump’s other priorities in entering the war, doesn’t show up in the MOU text.
The president on Wednesday defended letting Tehran have its arsenal of ballistic missiles, saying it will be one of the issues not related to Iran’s nuclear program that the U.S. will work on with Persian Gulf allies.
“Missiles aren’t the problem,” Trump said, adding that they “hurt a little location, but they don’t blow up the planet.”
Uranium enrichment
Trump’s long-running obsession with Iran’s “nuclear dust” — the enriched uranium that Tehran could eventually use to make a nuclear weapon — may finally be settled in the upcoming conversations.
Under the Obama administration’s JCPOA, which Trump terminated in 2018 during his first term, Iran wasn’t required to destroy all of its enriched uranium. Instead, it was meant to dramatically reduce its stockpile of the material, which was then far smaller than it is now.
Trump previously had pressed Iran to abandon all uranium enrichment, though the regime has refused, insisting its nuclear program only exists for peaceful purposes.
The MOU suggests Iran will face some limits on its stockpile going forward, stating that a “minimum” standard of “downblending” the enriched uranium would happen on site under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency. Iran’s stockpile includes uranium enriched to 60 percent purity, close to the 90 percent needed to produce a nuclear weapon.
An issue for the next round of talks is whether the enriched uranium will be destroyed, removed from the country or simply downblended to a lower grade.
Also up for debate is how long Iran would agree to suspend uranium enrichment, with Trump over the weekend telling The New York Times he wants them to do so for 15 to 20 years. He also insisted on permanent restrictions that stipulate Tehran can “only enrich for nonmilitary purposes. Forever.”
He did appear to leave the door open for Iran to have a civilian nuclear program, saying on Wednesday it would be “for purposes of electricity and things like that.”
Lebanon ceasefire
Iran is selling as a major victory the inclusion of a ceasefire in Lebanon as part of the deal.
Israeli officials across the political spectrum have expressed outrage over the provision, arguing it ties Israel’s hands in responding to its own security threats.
Vice President Vance, in the press conference with reporters, said the U.S. expects Hezbollah to hold back its fire against Israel, but he also said the U.S. expects that Israel is “not going to be going wild in Lebanon.”
Vance’s comments echo Trump’s remarks a day earlier that he views Israel as overreacting against Hezbollah strikes.
“When two drones are shot into the desert and dropped, you don’t have to knock down buildings in Beirut,” Trump said, referring to Israel.
Vance, during the press conference, suggested that back-and-forth strikes between Israel and Hezbollah are likely to play out but called these “little flare ups.”
“And that’s just the sort of thing that we’re going to have to manage through the diplomatic process,” he said.
The U.S. has mediated direct talks between Israel and Lebanon, with the expectation that Lebanon will disarm Hezbollah and take over security of the south of the country, triggering an Israeli retreat. But Iran is unlikely to permit a Hezbollah disarmament or weakening in the country.
$300 billion reconstruction fund
One point in the MOU says the U.S., “together with its regional partners,” will ensure the financing of at least $300 billion for a reconstruction fund for Iran.
It says the “implementation mechanism of this plan” will be determined as part of the final agreement.
Some have questioned the role the U.S. will have in it, even though Trump said Wednesday that the U.S. wouldn’t contribute to the fund, but that he couldn’t stop others from investing in Tehran.
Vance, too, said Thursday that “not a single penny” from the U.S. would be going to Iran. He said there was “great desire” from Arab countries and others “to actually get involved with Iran if they behave properly.”
The language of the MOU is vague, however, and appears to leave the door open for Washington to eventually make payments to Tehran as part of a negotiated settlement.
US sanctions/frozen assets
The agreement also says the U.S. would commit to ending “all types of sanctions” imposed on Iran — including the ones approved by the United Nations and International Atomic Energy Agency as well as unilateral sanctions — following an agreed-upon schedule.
The U.S. also would waive sanctions that allow Iran to export its crude oil into the global market.
The MOU specifically says the Treasury Department “will issue waivers for exports of Iranian crude oil, petrochemical products and their derivatives, and all related services, including banking, insurance, transportation, and the like.”
Iran hawks have raised their eyebrows at this point, which they say is a major concession to Iran.
The memo also includes the U.S. making available Iranian frozen funds and assets upon the implementation of the MOU. It says the two countries would “mutually agree on the procedures related to the release of those funds” during the 60-day negotiation period.
The total of frozen funds is estimated to be at least $24 billion.
But the White House has repeatedly noted that some of the releases of funds are contingent on Iran following through with good behavior.
“You will hear things about $300 billion or $24 billion or this or that number of money, or amount of money, and the simple fact is that the only way the Iranians get any of those resources — not a single penny, by the way, from the United States of America under any circumstances — but the only way that they would ever get any benefit of the bargain is if they comply fully and change their behavior,” Vance told reporters Thursday. “And so, you really have a win-win situation for the United States of America.”
He said if Iran doesn’t change its behaviors “their military and their nuclear program is still destroyed; if they do change their behavior, then they are going to have a transformative relationship with the Middle East, and the Middle East will have a transformative relationship with the people of Iran.”
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