Final Four breakdown: Why Illinois has answers for UConn, Michigan holds edge vs. Arizona

A position-by-position breakdown of both Final Four games: where each matchup tilts, what could decide it and why Illinois and Michigan may have the answers when it matters most

The Final Four is here in all its glory. No. 1 seed Arizona and No. 1 seed Michigan have been on a collision course since Selection Sunday. It's the Game of the Year, and the numbers back it up. This matchup has the top-rated Thrill Score on KenPom to date this season. 

Oh, and we get an Illinois vs. UConn rematch from a Black Friday game that is utterly pointless to look at because the rotations have changed so much for both teams. 

March Madness has been epic so far, and this Final Four could take it to another stratosphere.

March Madness 2026: Ranking every starter for the Final Four teams from No. 1-20 David Cobb

Let's dive into a position-by-position breakdown and predictions for these two electric matchups. 

No. 2 UConn vs. No. 3 Illinois

Point guard

Illinois freshman Keaton Wagler is a smooth operator. His hesitation, crossover into a stepback jumper is butter. Wagler is on pace to be a lottery pick because he combines size, skill, feel and shooting. The 6-foot-6 point guard is shooting over 40% on both catch-and-shoot 3s and pull-up treys, and he rarely turns it over in pick-and-rolls (11% turnover rate, per Synergy). His toughness is the cherry on top. Wagler gets after it on the glass with all the big dawgs. He mixes role-player habits with go-to star skills.

UConn point guard Silas Demary Jr. has had a fabulous, do-it-all season for UConn. He's Hurley's best point-of-attack defender, who can go hunt triple-doubles while serving as UConn's late-clock option. Unfortunately, a Grade 2 high-ankle sprain has limited his minutes in March.

Advantage: Illinois

Shooting guard

Solo Ball hasn't had the massive junior season he was hoping for, but the UConn sharpshooter is still incredibly dangerous. Ball flies off screens and can fire in a heartbeat. He's only shooting 29% from 3-point range this year, but he's deposited 170 treys in the last two years combined. Ball can stop and pop from the midrange, curl all the way to the tin and get out in the open floor and do damage. If you let him get rolling, Ball can hit six treys in a blink.

Illinois counters with senior guard Kylan Boswell, who is at his best as a connect-the-dots secondary option who can play on or off the ball. Boswell is the top point-of-attack defender on the team, and he can uncork bully-ball drives, cash out open catch-and-shoot 3s and play in the creases to create advantages. He'll likely take the assignment chasing Ball around screens.

Advantage: UConn, barely

Wing

You can't leave Illinois wing, Jake Davis. The former Mercer product is shooting over 44% on open catch-and-shoot 3s, and he's a sneaky-good screener who can help put a weak defender into the crosshairs. The 6-foot-6, 215-pound junior isn't afraid to woof at anybody, and he'll crash the offensive glass religiously. He has turned the basketball over just six times all year. That's one of the best marks in the country.

But the Bringer of Rain is the headliner here. UConn is hoping the epic game-winner against Duke can get freshman Braylon Mullins rolling at the level he's capable of. Add Mullins to the list of guys who can pop off for six triples on a moment's notice. The 6-foot-6, 195-pound freshman has a quick trigger from downtown and a knockdown pull-up jumper, but he's shooting just 14-for-66 (21%) from 3-point range in the last 10 games. He has good defensive instincts and tries to be in the right places at the right times, but defending without fouling has been a concern. Illinois will hunt him religiously to see if Mullins cracks.

Advantage: UConn

Forward

Illinois' David Mirkovic against UConn's Alex Karaban is the matchup of the game. Mirkovic is Illinois' second-best player. The 6-foot-9, 250-pound freshman has had a tremendous year operating as a top action guy in the halfcourt. Mirkovic can play in pick-and-rolls or backdowns where he's a threat to score or create once he finds a matchup. The shooting has been a pleasant surprise and made Mirkovic a brutally tough cover. Only two players finished with at least 50 treys, a 10% offensive rebound rate and 15% assist rate: Mirkovic and Duke's Cameron Boozer. Pretty good company.

Conversely, Karaban is one of college basketball's ultimate winners. This is his third Final Four appearance. Karaban gives husky 4s (like Mirkovic) some problems with his barrage of cuts and slips. Karaban has parking-lot range (73 3-pointers at a 39% clip), and he can slice you up as a passer in UConn's layered offense. Karaban has mastered all the intricacies of one of college basketball's best schemes. 

Mirkovic's size and skill could give Karaban problems, although he was up to the fight against Duke's Cameron Boozer on multiple occasions. Karaban's movement shooting and activity could give Mirkovic some issues, although the Illini freshman's off-ball defense has improved leaps and bounds compared to the first matchup back in late November.

Advantage: Draw

Center

Tarris Reed is having himself a tournament. The UConn big fella is averaging 21.8 points, 13.5 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 2.2 blocks in these four NCAA Tournament contests. Reed is a load in the low-box area, where he can carve out a ton of space and finish over either shoulder. Reed has hammered home 36 dunks this season, and UConn's offense is 7.0 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor against top-50 teams, per hoop-explorer. He's become a much better defender in every facet, but Illinois will make him work to defend pick-and-rolls all night, hoping to tire him out and potentially get him into foul trouble.

Illinois big man Tomislav Ivisic also enters this one feeling good. The 7-foot-1, 255-pound center has improved as a low-post scorer, but the shooting is his best attribute. No 7-footer has cashed more 3s this year than Ivisic (48). Illinois needs Ivisic's very best in terms of toughness if it wants to advance to the title game. He has to be a monster on the boards, keep Reed off the offensive glass and hold up in solo coverage.

Advantage: UConn

Bench mob

This is the healthiest UConn's bench has been in over a month. Junior wing Jayden Ross has used defense to carve out a bigger role. Backup point guard Malachi Smith has had to play a bit more after Demary's injury. He can supply a jolt of speed and ball pressure. Jaylin Stewart is back in the mix, and backup big man Eric Reibe is capable.

But Illinois has a huge bench advantage in this one. Andrej Stojakovic is capable of taking over games for stretches. He's averaging 15 points per game off the bench in this tournament with a barrage of drives. Illinois' superb spacing has helped Stojakovic average 1.14 points per possession on drives while shooting 63% at the rim. Backup big man Zvonimir Ivisic is an elite shot-blocker with freaky length, and veteran sharpshooter Ben Humrichous plays his 3-and-D role well.

Illinois' second wave of reinforcements is on a far different level.

Advantage: Illinois

Illinois-UConn prediction

Demary's injury forces UConn to play more of its weaker point-of-attack defenders for longer stretches than Dan Hurley would prefer, and it's hurting the structure of this UConn defense. The Huskies are giving up way, way too many point-blank looks right now because they can't defend the ball at the level Hurley demands.

• 25 of Duke's 48 shots were at the rim.
• 26 of Michigan State's 58 shots were at the rim.
• 24 of UCLA's 49 shots were at the rim.

That's a major problem against an Illinois team that shoots over 63% at the rim against top-100 competition. The Illini have so many different ways it can generate paint touches because of its immaculate spacing and sharp matchup-hunting, including Stojakovic drives, Wagler in pick-and-rolls, Boswell attacking seams, Mirkovic backdowns, Tomi Ivisic post-ups or Zvonimir Ivisic lobs. If UConn can't defend the paint much better, it's in scalding-hot water because Illinois isn't making many mistakes these days.

Illinois does not foul. Illinois does not turn it over, which breathed life into UConn's rally against Duke. Illinois also offensive rebounds at an elite clip. That's another area where the Demary injury hurts UConn. He is the second-best rebounder in Hurley's starting lineup, and UConn's quietly allowed its opponents to corrall at least 33% of its misses 11 times this year. 

There are just too many easy buttons for Illinois' elite half-court buttons to press. They'll put Mullins into the action 24/7. They'll poke at Smith whenever he subs in for Demary. They'll drag Reed away from the rim to defend Ivisic's pick-and-pop 3s and open up more driving lanes to the paint.

It's a hard matchup for UConn to offset all the paint touches that Illinois will generate because if UConn has to start bringing two to the ball, the Illini's blend of plus passers have shredded that defensive gameplan all year. Karaban, Ball and Mullins need to go berserk from downtown, or UConn's run ends in the Final Four.

The pick: Illinois

No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 1 Michigan

Point guard

Arizona point guard Jaden Bradley just lives in the paint. The 6-foot-3, 205-pound senior has terrific positional size and power. He bullies smaller defenders into the teeth of the defense, where he can stop and pop for pull-ups or finish through traffic. Bradley makes good decisions, defends at an elite level and rises to the occasion in the clutch. He's been one of the top clutch-time scorers all season.

Michigan counters with Elliot Cadeau, who brings a real tenacity and edge to the Wolverines' lineup. Cadeau is shooting the 3-ball with way more confidence (61 makes at a 38% clip), but it's his unselfishness, speed and court vision that make him so valuable. Cadeau can throw every pass in the book. While he's a bit undersized, Cadeau has become a pesky defender.

Advantage: Arizona, but it's closer than you think

Shooting guard

Nimari Burnett was on the same Michigan team that won just eight games and finished last in the Big Ten. Two years later, he's in the Final Four. The 6-foot-5, 195-pound senior guard makes open 3s, runs the floor, can play above the rim and connects the dots as an unselfish ball-mover.

Burnett will get matched up against Arizona's star freshman Brayden Burries, who is a flat-out bucket. Burries does a little bit of everything well. He's a legitimate 3-level scorer, who is shooting 40% from beyond the arc, 45% on pull-up 2s, 64% at the rim and 81% at the free-throw line. He's a big-bodied jet in the open floor who looks every bit the part of a future lottery pick.

Advantage: Arizona

Wing

Yaxel Lendeborg is hoopin' like the best player in the country. The first-team All-American has lived up to the "Dominican LeBron" moniker. He is the definition of a five-tool baseball player on the basketball court. Lendeborg hits for average (64% on 2-pointers), he hits for power (37% on 3-pointers), he's fast (elite transition scorer), he is a high-level defender and owns a bazooka (27 dunks). 

Lendeborg did not hide the fact that he felt disrespected that Alabama put freshman Amari Allen on him in the Sweet 16.

Guess who is guarding him in the Final Four? Arizona freshman Ivan Kharchenkov. 

But the German youngster does not look like a typical teenager. At 6-foot-7 and a stout 230 pounds, Kharchenkov is physically ready for the Yax Attack. Kharchenkov is a torrid defender who makes most of his money as a straight-line driver for Arizona's offense. He has not made more than two 3-pointers in a game all year. Kharchenkov does play with a ton of energy, and you have to keep him off the glass.

Advantage: Michigan

Forward

This is going to be a scrap between two bludgeoning monsters in Koa Peat and Morez Johnson Jr. Peat has been one of the best freshmen in the country for Arizona. The 6-foot-8, 235-pound freshman knows exactly where his bread is buttered in the paint. He wants to play with force, violence and ferocity. He's a hammerhead shark playing basketball. 

Johnson will be just fine with all the physicality. The Michigan forward is all about the body blows. Johnson makes his money as a rugged offensive rebounder, but he's rounded out the rough edges of his game. He can make reads as a passer now. He can step out and make an open triple. He can put it on the deck a little bit now. 

Both Johnson and Peat played together for Team USA, so they are well aware of each other's games. Peat, for all his strengths, can be a mediocre rebounder for his position, and Johnson is going to be getting after it on the glass. 

I can't wait to see how this one goes.

Advantage: Arizona, barely

Center

There are tall dudes, there are enormous men and then there is whatever Aday Mara and Motiejus Krivas are. Mara stands at 7-foot-3 and 255 pounds. Krivas counters at "only" 7-foot-2 and 260 pounds.

This is big-boy basketball, literally and figuratively.

Mara is the flashiest of the two. He's an outstanding back-to-the-basket scorer and creator who has so many tricks in his bag. But he can have some finesse moments. There is no softness in Krivas' game. He is tough, smart and reliable. Krivas will be physical with Mara from the jump, and Dusty May needs his big fella to match that.

Both of these guys are precious anchors to their respective defenses. Staying out of foul trouble will be paramount.

Advantage: Michigan, barely

Bench mob

It would not shock me if these second units tilt the scales in this hotly contested war. Michigan's trio of Trey McKenney, Roddy Gayle Jr. and Will Tschetter all do their jobs. McKenney can fill it up. Gayle can guard, cut and drive it. Tschetter can space the floor and will compete.

It's a similar deal at Arizona. Tobe Awaka comes off the bench ready to disperse his five fouls and play with toughness. Anthony Dell'Orso isn't a great defender -- which is why he doesn't play a ton -- but he can hit 3s and pull-ups. He gives Arizona a real jolt if the offense hits a dry spell.

Advantage: Michigan

Arizona-Michigan prediction

This game is won or lost on the glass. End of story. If Michigan keeps Arizona off the offensive glass -- easier said than done -- I don't know how Arizona scores. Who do you pick at? Krivas post-ups against Mara won't work all that effectively. Peat backdowns against Johnson won't be efficient. Bradley and Burries need to hit a ton of tough 2s? That might work for a minute, but it won't be sustainable over a 40-minute game. Plus, I wouldn't be surprised if Lendeborg gets the Burries assignment and gives him fits. It's just hard to find pathways for Arizona to score outside of second-chance opportunities. 

Whoever controls the boards controls the game because both of these teams are so good at playing in the open floor.

But both of these defenses have been so good at limiting transition points.

If this turns into a half-court grinder, Michigan has the advantage. 

• Michigan's halfcourt offense averages 1.05 points per possession. That ranks in the 99th percentile. Arizona's is at 0.99 points per possession, which is the 86th percentile. 
• Michigan is also the better-shooting team. The Wolverines have a 54% effective field goal percentage on jumpers. Arizona is at 50%. 
• Michigan can also have three elite passers. Arizona counters with one or maybe two?

Those little margins add up in a game that is going to be so close.

Plus, Michigan has the best player on the floor in Lendeborg and a second-half defense that rates No. 1 nationally amongst all high-majors in effective field goal percentage, per CBB Analytics.

I was on Arizona to win this game for weeks because I thought the guard play would be the difference. But the way Lendeborg is playing right now is on a different level. He is the best player on the floor. Michigan's second-half defense also rates No. 1 nationally amongst all high-majors in effective field goal percentage, per CBB Analytics. Michigan has just a few more edges. This is the one matchup where Arizona's lack of 3-point shooting in the frontcourt comes back to bite 'em. If you can't space out Michigan's shot-blockers, life gets really, really hard. 

The pick: Michigan