There are just two days of the World Cup group stage left to go. Whether this is a good riddance moment or a fond farewell might well depend on nothing more than your experience of the tournament, but I must admit I'm eager to move on. I swear Mexico qualified for the round of 32 last month. Already, the shape of the tournament is becoming clearer with four knockout games locked into place.
Now some of the big hitters will find out where they stand. Uruguay need something against Spain if they are to advance, while the European champions aren't yet certain of top spot in Group H, which could be snatched by Cabo Verde. Meanwhile, every team has a chance to advance in Group G where Belgium face New Zealand and Egypt are up against Iran. The day, however, starts with France's clash against Norway and so do we.
A must-win game for Norway
The clash between Erling Haaland and Kylian Mbappe was always going to be a high-wattage affair and so it has proven, even when the shape of the group seems to conspire against fans at Gillette Stadium. On paper, it looks like there is little to play for, both teams have six points and cannot be leapfrogged by a Senegal side that must beat Iraq in Toronto. And yet a win carries a great deal of value for Norway in particular, who should be looking ahead to the knockout stages with some trepidation.
As it stands, their path to a quarterfinal would go through Ivory Coast and then the winner of Brazil's tie with Japan. France, who currently occupy top spot in Group I, would have to overcome a rather ragged Sweden side before beating the winner of Germany against Paraguay. Your view on the following statement will rather depend on what you made of Germany's win over Ivory Coast on Saturday, but to this column it really seems that there are three opponents awaiting the Group I runners-up who are superior to anything the other path might throw up.
CBS Sports Yes, yes, Germany actually won, but did you see what difficulties Ivory Coast gave them in defense and attack? Until Denis Undav came on, there was nothing doing in the Ivorian area, more chances coming the way of the team in orange. Emerse Fae's squad is a versatile one replete with options off the bench and a game-changer who could one day soon be talked of in the same breath as Haaland and Mbappe, winger Yan Diomande. Get out of their path if you can.
That might well be easier said than done for Norway given Stale Solbakken has indicated he wants to give his players a breather. "It is an important game, but the most important is the round of 32," he said. "It is 100% certain that we will need to be rested for the round of 32 mentally and physically. It could be that we have to play 30 minutes of extra time or penalties.
"There is an argument that these players are used to playing every three days, but here [there] is so much pressure. It is like a pressure cooker... We are very happy having six points. We can learn a lot from France because they have been in this situation. They are going to game three and will rest some players. We should not become too greedy. We have to be more smart than greedy."
Solbakken may well be right and I wrong in the end. Give his star players eight days off between the win over Senegal and the game against the Ivory Coast and he may be rewarded with an outstanding display to lift his side over a really good opponent. If, however, there is a chance to get off a path that goes via the Ivorians, you would be well advised to take it.
Belgium couldn't blow this, could they?
No one was under any illusions about Belgium before this tournament. This was evidently a diminished version of the Golden Generation, supplemented by the sort of talent you would expect a nation of this size to produce. And yet few would really have expected this team to have much difficulty reaching the knockout stages. They had been handed the most favorable draw this World Cup could realistically offer. Anything less than six points was a sign that something had gone disastrously wrong.
We can safely say then that something has gone disastrously wrong. A point against New Zealand would advance the Red Devils to the knockout stage, but put this team against France or even Switzerland and things could go really badly wrong. On the evidence of the last two games, Australia might not be a much better matchup for Rudi Garcia's side, who huff and puff their way around teams with excellent defensive shape.
That that is the case is a reminder that things could be worse for Belgium than just a rough draw in the knockout stages. This team is really lacking in final third oomph. It's not so much that they struggle to get into dangerous areas, an average of 36.5 penalty box touches per game is seventh best in the tournament, but when they get there they can't manufacture good shooting opportunities for the right players.
Defender Maxim De Cuyper and Brandon Mechele sit first and third for xG on this team, second-placed Kevin De Bruyne is mostly taking bad shots. Both starting forwards Romelu Lukaku and Charles De Ketelaere have been marked out of games, the latter failing to register a shot in the opener and being dropped for the second game. None of the wide options really threaten to get a bunch of shots even though Leandro Trossard has license to roam.
Can this really be the team that lit up qualifying to the tune of 29 goals in eight games? It might be if De Bruyne could get his groove back or if Jeremy Doku, who scored five goals in those qualifiers, can get up to speed quickly after returning to camp following the birth of his first child. Garcia has suggested that the Manchester City winger may not be ready to play the full 90 just yet, but Belgium will need him. There is a serious risk here against a New Zealand side who allowed only 3.37 xG despite conceding five goals to Iran and Egypt. If the All Whites lock in and if Belgium don't get those shots from the guys who need to take them, then this could go badly wrong.
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