Welcome to Week 1. It's time to move from the wide lens of season-long and hyper-focus on one week's worth of games. As I wrote about in Week 1 Projections Risers and Fallers, that means that some guys we drafted as QB2s are going to be starting over some guys we drafted as QB1s. It may even mean that you should look to the waiver wire for a starter, though hopefully not. I don't want to completely recap that article here, but what you should know is that in our early Week 1 consensus rankings, Jaxson Dart, Brock Purdy, Bo Nix, and Patrick Mahomes are not top 12 quarterbacks. If you have one of them and no one else, I have some streamers below that may be better options for you.
One thing I want to say about rankings, especially in Week 1, is that the gap probably isn't as big as it looks when you are just looking at a list. For example, Dak Prescott is my projected QB4 at 21.75 points, while Matthew Stafford is my QB10 at 21.03 in the projections. I have 14 QBs projected to score at least 20 points in a standard CBS league, and none of them are projected to score more than 23. In other words, don't be afraid to trust your gut if you have two QBs with similar projections. And maybe more importantly, check back throughout the week. These projections will change a lot before the first game on Wednesday night, and even more before the majority of games start on Sunday.
While I mentioned Dart is not a top 12 QB for me, he is QB13, and he is one of the guys I am most interested to watch. Last year, he was QB4 from Week 4 through Week 10, averaging 25.8 FPPG, then he was QB18 in the final five weeks of the season, and didn't even average 18 FPPG. The Giants changed almost everything this offseason and the offense is a bit of a mystery with Matt Nagy in charge, but Greg Roman and Brian Callahan apparently have had input as well. It's possible this approach works, but those names don't exactly inspire confidence either. Dart has Malik Nabers back and the team added Isaiah Likely and Malachi Fields this offseason. Then there's the running, and just how much this new regime tries to pull back the reins on Dart's borderline reckless approach from last year. So yes, I will be very interested to watch the Giants offense on Sunday night against the Cowboys.
Let's get to the rest of the preview:
Week 1 QB Preview Numbers to Know Waiver Wire Targets DFS Plays Projections QB Preview Numbers to know- 19 -- The Chiefs have not scored more than 19 points against the Broncos since January 1, 2023. Now they are facing them in Week 1 with a revamped offensive line that may be missing Josh Simmons.
- 36.8 -- The Cowboys have averaged 36.8 passes per game in the Brian Schottenheimer era. There has been some speculation that could come down with their improved defense. This is one to watch in Week 1 as they are favorites and that number matters a lot to Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and George Pickens.
- 7.2 -- Justin Herbert has averaged 7.2 yards per attempt for his career, which ranks 15th out of 23 QBs who have thrown at least 2,000 passes in the last seven seasons. We're expecting Mike McDaniel to improve on that.
- 6.8 -- Malik Willis has averaged 6.8 rush attempts per game in his nine career starts. We'd like to see at least that many attempts in Week 1 against the Raiders.
- 9 -- Bo Nix has scored nine rushing touchdowns in two seasons. His willingness to run coming off the ankle injury is a big question mark.
- 14.6% -- Caleb Williams' 14.6% off target rate was the worst mark in the league amongst qualified QBs. If he has improved his accuracy, he could be an elite Fantasy QB.
- 2.35 -- Last year, Tua Tagovailoa had the lowest time to pressure in the league at 2.35 seconds. If things aren't better with the Falcons, we could see a lot of dump-offs to Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts.
- 1-11 -- Jacoby Brissett went 1-11 in his 12 starts last year. If he doesn't get off to a better start than that, we could see Carson Beck by midseason.
- 3.1% -- Tyler Shough had a minuscule 3.1% TD rate in his rookie season. That's not uncommon for a rookie, but the QBs that make it in the league often progress in this area in Year 2.
Tyler Shough QB NO New Orleans • #6
Age: 26 • Experience: 2 yrs. Weekly Breakdown MATCHUP @ DET DET -7 O/U 49.5 OPP VS QB 24th QB RNK 17th ROSTERED 65% 2025 Stats PAYDS 2384 RUYDS 186 TD 13 INT 6 FPTS/G 16.2 We'll generally use 65% as a cutoff for a waiver add and Shough sits right on that mark as of Tuesday morning. He averaged 20 Fantasy points per game in the second half of last season and ranked QB11 over that stretch. In week 1, he has a matchup with the Lions, which is one of two games this week with an over-under of 50. There should be plenty of points and pass attempts as Shough and the Saints chase the scoreboard. He is probably just a one-week streamer, as he's at Baltimore next week, but Week 3 (Las Vegas) and Week 4 (Atlanta) are also very good matchups. I would start Shough over Brock Purdy, Patrick Mahomes, and Bo Nix. 
Malik Willis QB MIA Miami • #2
Age: 27 • Experience: 5 yrs. Weekly Breakdown MATCHUP @ LV LV -3.5 O/U 40.5 OPP VS QB 14th QB RNK 18th ROSTERED 51% 2025 Stats PAYDS 422 RUYDS 123 TD 5 INT 0 FPTS/G 14.3 Willis ranks much higher in leagues that reward four points for passing touchdowns than six. But really, there is so much unknown about this situation. He was statistically one of the best passers in the NFL in a tiny sample size last year. We have no idea how that will translate. And his most talented receivers are rookies. If one of those rookies hits and Willis validates last year's small sample size, he is a set-it-and-forget-it QB1. Whether you want to start him in Week 1 or not, he should be rostered in any league 10 teams or deeper. One To Stash (QB Preview) 
Cam Ward QB TEN Tennessee • #1
Age: 24 • Experience: 2 yrs. Weekly Breakdown MATCHUP vs NYJ TEN -1.5 O/U 39.5 OPP VS QB 31st QB RNK NR ROSTERED 25% 2025 Stats PAYDS 3169 RUYDS 159 TD 17 INT 7 FPTS/G 12.7 The preseason gave us nothing to be optimistic about. I am not sure I care. In deeper leagues, I would like to stash Ward for Week 1. He has a new offensive coordinator, a pair of new pass catchers, and he shouldn't be overwhelmed by the Jets defense. He's a former number one pick with plenty of talent around him. If Brian Daboll unleashes Ward as a runner, we could be racing to the waiver wire to add him for his Week 3 matchup against the Giants. QB Preview DFS Plays Top DFS Play Projections powered by Sportsline 
Jalen Hurts QB PHI Philadelphia • #1
Age: 28 • Experience: 7 yrs. Weekly Breakdown MATCHUP vs WAS PHI -4.5 O/U 44.5 OPP VS QB 30th PROJ PTS 25.5 QB RNK 5th 2025 Stats PAYDS 3224 RUYDS 421 TD 33 INT 6 FPTS/G 21.9 Hurts is my QB1 this week in all scoring formats. He has a fantastic matchup against the Commanders and a new offensive system that I am sure he cannot wait to show off after an offseason of hearing about his lack of job security. Sean Mannion has said the tush push will remain part of the offense, but the passing game should be much more creative. Best of all, Hurts will not be that popular because of the public perception of him after the 2025 season. Let's just hope Jayden Daniels and the Commanders can score enough to push the Eagles. Contrarian DFS Play Projections powered by Sportsline 
Jayden Daniels QB WAS Washington • #5
Age: 25 • Experience: 3 yrs. It is a hard argument with math that you should be excited about playing any quarterback against this Eagles defense. That's why Daniels will be contrarian. But he is going to run eight or more times and he has the best trio of pass catchers he's ever had in Terry McLaurin, Stefon Diggs, and Chigoziem Okonkwo. If he's chasing the scoreboard, that will be even better for his pass volume. Don't put all your eggs in this basket, but no low-rostered QB has as much upside as Daniels. QB Preview Heath's projections My full set of Week 1 Fantasy football projections for every position is here. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don't live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 1. Projected stats for all starting quarterbacks are available and will be updated throughout the week as I make changes.
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