It's Week 9 of the NFL season, and for your Fantasy football squads, this is a pivotal week. With more teams on bye and major injuries to starting quarterbacks around the NFL, the fringe plays are now more mainstream and for good reason. Your stat/sit decisons have just gotten a lot more difficult and the matchups play an even more important role now than ever.
That's where Dave Richard's Week 9 matchup breakdown comes in. From defensive coverages and pass-rush pressure to backfield workloads and target distribution, we'll examine the factors that matter most to help you identify trustworthy starters, avoid potential disappointments and make the best possible lineup decisions.
Dave Richard's Week 9 rankings: Top 150 | QB | RB | WR | TE | K | DST
Start 'em 10.0-7.00 6.99 - 5.01 5.00 - 0 Sit 'em
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Baltimore Ravens Thu, Nov 5 at 8:15 pm ET • BAL +10, O/U 39.5 Joe Fagnano has extensive college experience (starting at Maine for four years before transferring to UConn for two more years) and has proven to be a reliable, quick-game pocket quarterback. Asking him to be anything more than that might be problematic, even if his pass protection won't be too rough. Last year at UConn he connected with Skyler Bell on a ton of quick throws, but not necessarily all short throws, for huge numbers. My best guess is that the Ravens scheme up a slew of targets to Zay Flowers against the Jaguars' zone-heavy defense with the hope he breaks a couple of plays for big yardage. The Jaguars happen to rank bottom-five in both yards per attempt and average depth of throw allowed to receivers on throws under 2.5 seconds, but it's not like they've been crushed on quick passes -- Darius Cooper had a long touchdown against a coverage bust and Keenan Allen had a lot of quick-game volume to help push their numbers to decent totals. Tight ends like Foster Moreau and Mike Gesicki have had more success, so maybe that helps raise the outlook for Mark Andrews, who leads all tight ends and is second on the team with 21 targets on quick throws this season. It's probably not enough to call him anything more than a low-end streamer, though. That leaves Flowers as the only Ravens pass-catcher with decent Fantasy potential as a No. 2 receiver.
- START: Trevor Lawrence, Bhayshul Tuten, Derrick Henry (No. 2 RB), Parker Washington, Zay Flowers (No. 2 WR), Jaguars DST
- FLEX: Brenton Strange (PPR; high-end No. 2 TE)
- SIT: Joe Fagnano, Chris Rodriguez (bye-week RB unless Tuten is out), Mark Andrews (bye-week TE), Jakobi Meyers, Justice Hill (desperation PPR RB), Brian Thomas Jr., Rashod Bateman, Ravens DST
Cincinnati Bengals @ Atlanta Falcons Sun, Nov 8 at 9:30 am ET • ATL +3, O/U 52.5 Kyle Pitts wasn't the problem last week -- his quarterback in the rain against a suffocating Buccaneers pass rush was. Pitts generally stuck to short-area routes as an easy option for Michael Penix Jr., though he was wide open on a deep corner that Penix overthrew. Penix otherwise melted down and threw four picks and three other shoulda-been picks. Pitts also didn't see any red-zone snaps until the final drive of the game when Penix was pressured and either misfired or had his ball batted down on three straight plays. Weather won't be a factor in Spain's stadium, and Cincinnati's pass rush has blitzed at the lowest rate this season with a league-average pass rush pressure rate. The Falcons haven't let Penix get sacked in either of their past two games, which is quite a feat given who they've played. This seems like a good spot for Penix, which means it's a good spot for Pitts to be trusted in what should be a high-scoring game.
- MUST-START: Joe Burrow, Bijan Robinson, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Drake London
- START: Chase Brown, Kyle Pitts
- SIT: Michael Penix Jr., Mike Gesicki (bye-week TE), Samaje Perine, Jahan Dotson, Bengals DST, Falcons DST
Denver Broncos @ Carolina Panthers Sun, Nov 8 at 1:00 pm ET • CAR +2.5, O/U 44 Carolina's offensive problems last week started with an offensive line that let up pass-rush pressure on 52.2% of Bryce Young's dropbacks -- and six sacks. Denver's pass rush has only gotten more dangerous with Jonathon Cooper on the field and will be a big challenge for a Panthers O-line down to a third-string left guard and a rookie right tackle. That meant mediocre numbers for Carolina's wide receivers last week; a repeat is possible this week. Of the six wideouts to achieve at least 16 PPR points against Denver in 2026, five needed at least eight targets, three needed 12-plus. Just four touchdowns have been allowed to receivers, all of which came away from Pat Surtain, who will likely follow Tetairoa McMillan. Red-zone motion and crossing patterns have tripped up Denver on three of the TDs, but how many red-zone trips will the Panthers have? And for what it's worth, this Denver defense has yielded more touchdowns to tight ends than wide receivers on the year. Jalen Coker has more than five targets in just one of his past four games (and five max in each of his past two); getting him more involved might make some sense, but on the year Coker has just a 12.2% target per route run rate and a 1.04 yard per route run average when Young's been pressured. That's pretty rough; Tetairoa McMillan and Chuba Hubbard have much higher target rates when the heat's been on Young. I imagine they'll get more targets, especially McMillan on designed short throws, which has been the case lately. Those last two are the only Panthers I feel even remotely okay starting.
- MUST-START: Chuba Hubbard
- START: Jonah Coleman, Tetairoa McMillan (low-end No. 2 WR), Broncos DST
- FLEX: Jalen Coker, Jaylen Waddle
- SIT: Bryce Young, Bo Nix, Courtland Sutton (bye-week WR), Darren Waller, JK Dobbins, Panthers DST
Dallas Cowboys @ Indianapolis Colts Sun, Nov 8 at 1:00 pm ET • IND +5.5, O/U 51.5 Maybe the only bright spot for the Cowboys has been Quinnen Williams finally making positive contributions, with 15 pressures, four sacks, and zero missed tackles, along with 10 run stops in his past three games. Granted, they've come against some suspect offensive lines, but that's a worry for another week with the Colts up next. Dallas' defense is ugly, no doubt, but so too is Indianapolis' offense. They've allowed a sack rate of at least 11.8% in each of their past three games (two with Quenton Nelson still on the team), and last week they allowed a 45.9% pass rush pressure rate against Jacksonville, their second-worst rate on the season. Mind you, that's in a game the Jaguars lost their best D-tackle and one of their best pass rushers in. Daniel Jones has faced bad defenses this season and he's come away looking rough. Jones' efficiency has nosedived, and his gun-shy nature has limited the Colts' pass game all year. I'm not convinced Jones will take advantage of this cake matchup, leaving Tyler Warren, Keenan Allen and Josh Downs to get by on volume. Of those three, I would expect Allen to see the target volume necessary to be helpful for Fantasy.
- MUST-START: Javonte Williams, CeeDee Lamb
- START: Dak Prescott, Jonathan Taylor, George Pickens, Tyler Warren (low-end start)
- FLEX: Keenan Allen (PPR), Ryan Flournoy
- SIT: Daniel Jones, Josh Downs, Seth McGowan, DJ Giddens, Cowboys DST (desperation DST), Colts DST
New York Jets @ Kansas City Chiefs Sun, Nov 8 at 1:00 pm ET • KC -10, O/U 47.5 This feels like a sneaky high-scoring game. Kansas City's pass rush has been noticeably quiet (nine sacks and a 3.6% sack rate this year), and Geno Smith's splits are noticeably better when he's not pressured -- his past two games are recent examples. And if that's not bad enough, the Chiefs figure to be down their top two cornerbacks again, opening up favorable matchups for Garrett Wilson and Adonai Mitchell, who enters the week 15th among all qualifying wide receivers in target per route run rate (25.7%). At bare minimum, the Chiefs will have their hands full with these two plus Omar Cooper Jr. plus both Braelon Allen and Breece Hall at running back, plus it's not like the Jets offensive line is bad or even decent -- they've played well. That should force Kansas City's offense to keep up versus a Jets defense that allowed at least 26 points to three straight opponents, including the Dolphins.
It's worth pointing out that Breece Hall had roughly a 60/40 snap share split with Braelon Allen in Weeks 1 and 2 before Hall got hurt in Week 3. Allen actually played more third downs than Hall; Hall played more inside the five-yard line. However, over Allen's past four games, he's been top five among qualifying running backs in yards per rush (5.6), rush EPA, success rate, yards after contact per rush (4.15), and explosive rush rate (15.2% of his runs have gone at least 12 yards). He's also 12th in avoided tackle rate (25.3%). It's tough to expect the Jets to go back to their early-season split given how great Allen has been. The more likely scenario is a 60/40 or better split in Allen's favor with the high-value touches going his way instead of Hall's. In their past four games, the Chiefs have allowed a running back to land at least 18.5 PPR points three times, including two guys who did it averaging under 4.0 yards per rush (Ashton Jeanty, Jonah Coleman). Every single RB with at least 15 touches against Kansas City has at least 14.5 PPR points thanks to work in the passing game; both backs can catch the ball for the Jets. I'd lower expectations for Allen but still consider him a starter this week; Hall would be more of a bye-week option, with the understanding that he won't see more than 12 touches.
- MUST-START: Kenneth Walker III
- START: Patrick Mahomes, Braelon Allen, Rashee Rice, Garrett Wilson, Travis Kelce
- FLEX: Adonai Mitchell
- SIT: Geno Smith (bye-week QB), Omar Cooper Jr (bye-week WR), Breece Hall (bye-week RB this week), Xavier Worthy, Mason Taylor, Emmett Johnson, Chiefs DST, Jets DST
Detroit Lions @ Miami Dolphins Sun, Nov 8 at 1:00 pm ET • MIA +7, O/U 50.5 Jameson Williams has drawn the attention of Jared Goff to the point where the speedy receiver is not only seeing increased targets ahead of Sam LaPorta, but also taking a small share of targets away from Amon-Ra St. Brown! Coming out of the bye, it was Goff who found Williams as a second read on five of his nine targets, including his second touchdown (and on an end-zone target later in the game). That led to at least half of Williams' six targets in Week 8 being throws designed for him, including the deep post shot he gained 46 yards on. This is great for Detroit's offense, but a little depressing for those who start LaPorta and, to a lesser degree, St. Brown. Dolphins coach Jeff Hafley has plenty of experience scheming against Detroit's personnel from his days in Green Bay, but his current group of defenders doesn't blitz much, doesn't pressure the quarterback enough, ranks league average in PPR points allowed to wide receivers in their past three, and ranks third-worst in PPR points allowed to tight ends on the season. So while LaPorta has been more of a blocker, chipper and check-down option over his past two games, his matchup is impossible to resist in what should be a get-right spot.
- MUST-START: Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown
- START: Jared Goff, Jameson Williams, Ollie Gordon, Sam LaPorta, Lions DST (one-week option)
- FLEX: Malik Washington (PPR)
- SIT: Malik Willis (high-end No. 2 QB), Caleb Douglas (bye-week WR), Greg Dulcich (bye-week TE), Dolphins DST
Cleveland Browns @ New Orleans Saints Sun, Nov 8 at 1:00 pm ET • NO -3, O/U 42.5 MUST-START: Chris Olave
START: Harold Fannin Jr., Saints DST, Browns DST (borderline start)
FLEX: Quinshon Judkins, Alvin Kamara (PPR), Devaughn Vele (PPR)
SIT: Tyler Shough, Shedeur Sanders, Dylan Sampson (bye-week PPR RB), Denzel Boston, KC Concepcion, Kendre Miller, Juwan Johnson
Start 'em 10.0-7.00 6.99 - 5.01 5.00 - 0 Sit 'em
New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles Sun, Nov 8 at 1:00 pm ET • PHI +3.5, O/U 38.5 Analysis to come.
Start 'em 10.0-7.00 6.99 - 5.01 5.00 - 0 Sit 'em
Los Angeles Rams @ Washington Commanders Sun, Nov 8 at 1:00 pm ET • WAS +4.5, O/U 48.5 It wasn't a full half or even one quarter, but just one drive from Blake Corum last week to deliver his fourth consecutive game with at least 13 PPR points. But it's worth noting that this was the first blowout win for the Rams this season where Corum didn't have close to a 50-50 split in the second half with Kyren Williams, and he had a wider gap in snaps played with Williams in the first half (80-20) than in any other game this season. Washington has begun to struggle against the run in their past two games -- losing DTs Javon Kinlaw and Daron Payne has hurt them. Allowing over 30 PPR points to Christian McCaffrey is understandable, but having a banged-up Saquon Barkley and Elijah Mitchell total just over 20 PPR points in a win is kind of a head-scratcher. Los Angeles should be able to build a lead and give both of their backs touches to contribute, and with Corum flashing so much explosiveness in his cuts and playing so effectively, he figures to be worth starting as a low-end No. 2 running back.
In Matthew Stafford's past three games, his average depth of throw has shrunk to 5.7 yards or shorter; his rate of passes going zero or negative yards has exploded to at least 20.7% of his throws; he's getting the ball out in under 2.5 seconds in each game. This has been the case since the Rams' shocking Week 6 loss to the Cardinals, when Arizona blitzed Stafford like crazy -- the Raiders and Chargers followed suit. Week 6 was also when Davante Adams got hurt, taking away a reliable receiver from Stafford. The Commanders have blitzed at the fourth-highest rate this season and should continue to do so to make Stafford uncomfortable, and it's this same Washington defense that held a receiver-depleted Brock Purdy to just under 20 Fantasy points in Week 6. Stafford is startable, but without high expectations -- L.A.'s run game is another factor in his lack of pass attempts in three straight (33 or fewer).
- MUST-START: Puka Nacua, Kyren Williams
- START: Jayden Daniels, Stefon Diggs (low-end No. 2 WR), Blake Corum (low-end No. 2 RB), Rachaad White (low-end No. 2 PPR RB), Rams DST
- FLEX: Antonio Williams
- SIT: Matthew Stafford (high-end No. 2 QB), Chig Okonkwo (bye-week TE), Treylon Burks, Tyler Higbee, Austin Ekeler, Konata Mumpfield, Commanders DST
Houston Texans @ Los Angeles Chargers Sun, Nov 8 at 4:05 pm ET • LAC +4.5, O/U 40.5 START: C.J. Stroud, Nico Collins, Texans DST
FLEX: Ladd McConkey, Woody Marks (borderline No. 2/3 PPR RB)
SIT: Justin Herbert, Marvin Harrison Jr. (bye-week WR), Xavier Hutchinson, Kimani Vidal, Quentin Johnston, Oronde Gadsden II, Omarion Hampton, Dalton Schultz, Keaton Mitchell, Tank Dell, Chargers DST
Start 'em 10.0-7.00 6.99 - 5.01 5.00 - 0 Sit 'em
Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks Sun, Nov 8 at 4:25 pm ET • SEA -8.5, O/U 39.5 In effectively two games this year, Drew Lock has completed 72.9% of his throws for 8.8 yards per attempt on a 7.6 average depth of throw with an incredible 98% catchable throw rate. That includes Lock hitting 4 of 8 throws of 15-plus air yards for 17.8 yards per attempt and a touchdown (I bet you can guess who caught three of those four passes, with one going for an 82-yard score). One of his games was at Arizona in Week 2 -- he threw three touchdowns in that one (I bet you can guess who caught all three of those touchdowns) -- and that's who he's playing in Week 9. Lock will even have the benefit of playing behind an improved offensive line, and he'll see a Cardinals defense that's more beat up than it was when he first saw them. But this is just as good of a spot for the Seahawks to kick-start their run game, which was led by rookie Jadarian Price last week. I might expect less of George Holani on passing downs -- he seemed to play the most in the last minute of the first half and then again in mop-up duty in the fourth quarter. That would mean more Zach Charbonnet on both passing downs and near the goal line -- Charbonnet and Holani each had two snaps inside the 10 (Charbonnet also played on a two-point try). Arizona had allowed at least 4.6 yards per rush in Weeks 5 through 7 before crushing down on the Cowboys' run game in obvious situations in the second half last week, and four of the five RB touchdowns allowed this year have come from inside the three-yard line or closer. It's not crazy to think Charbonnet could score or that Price can rip some quality runs.
- MUST-START: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Trey McBride
- START: Seahawks DST
- FLEX: Michael Wilson, Tyler Allgeier, Zach Charbonnet (low-end flex), Jadarian Price (low-end non-PPR flex)
- SIT: Drew Lock, Gardner Minshew, Cooper Kupp, A.J. Barner, Cardinals DST
Green Bay Packers @ New England Patriots Sun, Nov 8 at 4:25 pm ET • NE -3, O/U 45.5 MUST-START: Josh Jacobs
START: Drake Maye, Jordan Love, Christian Watson, Matthew Golden, Rhamondre Stevenson, Tucker Kraft
SIT: Demario Douglas (bye-week WR), Eli Raridon (bye-week TE), Efton Chism III, Kyle Williams, Savion Williams, Corey Kiner, Packers DST, Patriots DST
Start 'em 10.0-7.00 6.99 - 5.01 5.00 - 0 Sit 'em
Las Vegas Raiders @ San Francisco 49ers Sun, Nov 8 at 4:25 pm ET • SF -10, O/U 51.5 Could we have seen the Raiders running back switch coming? Perhaps -- Ashton Jeanty was so inefficient as a runner entering last week (3.1 yards per carry, 0.49 yards before contact per rush, 2.8% explosive rush rate) while Mike Washington Jr. had been better (4.9 yards per rush, 1.45 yards before contact per rush, 12.5% explosive rush rate). But the Raiders had seemed hesitant to give Washington a lot of work since his season-high in carries before Week 8 was nine. Game script certainly helped Washington get a lot of work, and while his efficiency waned overall, his rushing average was 4.2 if you eliminated touches inside the five-yard line. Most importantly, Washington gave the Raiders a rushing presence they had not experienced since Week 2 with Jeanty. The worry this week is that the 49ers offense crushes the Raiders defense and forces Las Vegas into a pass-heavy game script. That's great for Kirk Cousins, great for Brock Bowers, potentially great for Tre Tucker and maybe also Michael Mayer, but that would seemingly benefit Jeanty since he remains effective -- and used -- in passing situations. Jeanty ran more than twice as many routes as Washington last week.
- MUST-START: Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, Brock Bowers
- START: Kirk Cousins (low-end start), Mike Evans, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel (low-end No. 2 WR), 49ers DST
- FLEX: Ashton Jeanty, Tre Tucker, Mike Washington Jr. (non-PPR)
- SIT: Michael Mayer (bye-week PPR TE), Kaelon Black, Jalen Nailor, Raiders DST
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Chicago Bears Sun, Nov 8 at 8:20 pm ET • CHI -6.5, O/U 47.5 Caleb Williams has definitely cut back on his erratic play since coming back from injury, getting the ball out on average a half-second sooner and completing nearly 74% of his throws compared to 65.5% in his first two games. That hasn't led to amazing Fantasy results, but that's because the Bears had three rushing touchdowns in their drubbing of the Seahawks on Monday, as well as in their win at Atlanta back in Week 6. Williams will face a huge test against the Bucs, who have let up over 20 Fantasy points twice this season, including exactly 20.1 to Aaron Rodgers in Week 5 -- they've held Jordan Love, Joe Burrow and Dak Prescott to under 18 Fantasy points each! They've typically gotten it done with plenty of blitzing and pass rush pressure and a way better-than-expected secondary picking off quarterback errors. Williams deserves credit for cutting down on his mistakes, and though this defense isn't as tough as the one he slayed on Monday, it still should be a challenge for him to come through for a big game. Additionally, D'Andre Swift should be able to pick up gains on the ground on outside zone-scheme runs, the specific type of run that Tampa Bay has given up 4.6 yards per rush against over its past three games.
MUST-START: Bucky Irving, D'Andre Swift
START: Caleb Williams (borderline start), Luther Burden III, Colston Loveland, Bears DST (on bye in Week 10)
FLEX: Chris Godwin (PPR), Rome Odunze (low-end flex)
SIT: Baker Mayfield, Kenneth Gainwell, Cade Otton, Ted Hurst, Tez Johnson, Buccaneers DST
Start 'em 10.0-7.00 6.99 - 5.01 5.00 - 0 Sit 'em
Buffalo Bills @ Minnesota Vikings Mon, Nov 9 at 8:15 pm ET • MIN +3, O/U 45 The Vikings' blitz-crazy defense will have its hands full with Josh Allen, who hasn't been blitzed much this season but is well above average in a number of passing metrics when the heat's been on, including fifth-best among qualifiers in yards per attempt (8.4) and sixth-best in catchable throw rate (88.6%). Allen also has a much higher rushing average when he's under pressure (9.5 compared to 3.6 when not under pressure), a factor the Vikings must contend with if they insist on the blitz. When he's thrown when pressured this year, blitzed or not, D.J. Moore has had the team's best per-route rates both in terms of targets (28.6%) and yards (3.23). No one else is even close, including Dalton Kincaid, whose Week 8 touchdown came in garbage time when Allen wasn't pressured, and it happened several plays after Kincaid had a red-zone drop. Minnesota has allowed the fewest PPR points per game to tight ends (no more than 8.6 in a game this year), making it an even tougher matchup for Kincaid to come through.
- MUST-START: Josh Allen, James Cook
- START: Justin Jefferson, D.J. Moore, T.J. Hockenson, Vikings DST (low-end start)
- FLEX: Jordan Addison (low-end flex)
- SIT: Kyler Murray (bye-week QB), Dalton Kincaid (bye-week TE), Khalil Shakir, Jordan Mason, Aaron Jones, Keon Coleman, Ty Johnson, Bills DST
