Week 8 brings another wave of difficult decisions for Fantasy managers, with four teams on bye, injuries continuing to reshape starting lineups and several familiar names facing challenging matchups. With the Fantasy regular season approaching its midpoint, finding the right balance between trusting proven performers and taking advantage of favorable matchups could make all the difference.
Geno Smith is among the quarterbacks worth trusting this week, with a favorable matchup against his former team, the Raiders, creating an opportunity for another strong performance. Michael Wilson could also bounce back against a vulnerable Cowboys secondary, while Sam LaPorta remains a reliable option despite an inconsistent season. Meanwhile, KC Concepcion's recent breakout has put him firmly in the flex conversation as Cleveland prepares for a rematch with Pittsburgh.
On the other side, Patrick Mahomes faces another difficult matchup against Denver, while Jared Goff could struggle against Minnesota's relentless blitz-heavy defense. Quinshon Judkins also faces a tougher challenge against Pittsburgh's stout run defense, and Caleb Williams must contend with a Seattle defense that has consistently frustrated opposing quarterbacks. Even productive Fantasy starters can become risky plays when defensive schemes and offensive tendencies work against them.
That's where Dave Richard's Week 8 matchup breakdown comes in. From defensive coverages and pass-rush pressure to backfield workloads and target distribution, we'll examine the factors that matter most to help you identify trustworthy starters, avoid potential disappointments and make the best possible lineup decisions.
Dave Richard's Week 8 rankings: Top 150 | QB | RB | WR | TE | K | DST
Start 'em 10.0-7.00 6.99 - 5.01 5.00 - 0 Sit 'emOne of Bryce Young's biggest strengths turned into an exploitable weakness in a hurry last week when the Buccaneers swarmed his offensive line, resulting in a 15.6% sack rate when Young was in the game. The crazy part? The Bucs had a season-low blitz rate (28.9%) and a season-high non-blitz pressure rate (44%). Young's O-line also took some hits with right tackle Taylor Moton fracturing his fibula and left guard Damien Lewis not well enough to play on Thursday. Young is a considerably worse quarterback when pressured, throwing a catchable ball at a 58% rate at 5.9 yards per attempt. There's no doubt the Packers aren't as aggressive as the Bucs were, but they will try to copy a lot of what the Buccaneers did versus a depleted offensive line. Having confidence in Young bouncing back is a little tough, particularly since only one QB has had north of 18 Fantasy points against Green Bay since Week 2 (Jared Goff had 22 Fantasy points last week).
It also doesn't help that the Packers lead the NFL with eight interceptions (they dropped two more last week) and rank in the top 10 in yards allowed per attempt to receivers despite seeing the third-most WR targets. They also own the third-best EPA per dropback against slot receivers and the best yards per attempt allowed to slot receivers. That's a warning salvo against Jalen Coker, who lines up in the slot about half the time.
- MUST-START: Chuba Hubbard, Christian Watson, Matthew Golden, Tetairoa McMillan
- START: Jordan Love, Bryce Young (borderline start), Josh Jacobs, Jalen Coker, Tucker Kraft
- SIT: Darren Waller, Tommy Tremble, Packers DST, Panthers DST
Like most defenses to play Buffalo, expect the Ravens to play a lot of zone coverage. That's been relatively consistent with Jesse Minter's defense, though their Cover-4 shell has at times operated as man-to-man. And the Ravens pass rush has been decent, but it has really come through against weaker offensive lines, which the Bills don't have. That ties into the Bills run game, which should have success against the Ravens, much like other strong run games, like Indy, Dallas and Atlanta have had against them this season. When Cook gets fed, Buffalo's pass-catchers starve -- only once in four of Cook's games with 20-plus carries has a Bills wideout notched over 14 PPR points (Keon Coleman, Week 6, 15 PPR), and only twice have any Bills pass-catcher gone over that number (Dalton Kincaid had 22.5 against Detroit). The Ravens pass defense isn't one to fear, but this is about the Bills' offensive tendencies when they're able to run the ball. It keeps DJ Moore, Keon Coleman and Khalil Shakir from being appealing Fantasy options, even in what's supposed to be a high-scoring game. A final point: Of the four touchdowns allowed to wideouts by the Ravens this season, just one (Ja'Marr Chase's two-yard TD last week) came from a receiver lined up wide.
- MUST-START: Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Zay Flowers, James Cook
- START: Derrick Henry, Dalton Kincaid (borderline start)
- FLEX: Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman
- SIT: Rashod Bateman, Ja'Kobi Lane, Mark Andrews, Josh Cuevas, Ty Johnson, Justice Hill, Bills DST, Ravens DST
Cincinnati's run defense came out of their bye with an impressive showing against the Ravens, clogging lanes so Derrick Henry couldn't build up speed, and ultimately holding him to 2.6 yards per rush. A depleted Baltimore offensive line helped the cause. It was a much-needed change after let-down games against the Steelers, Jaguars and Dolphins for three straight weeks. The Titans offensive line isn't one to fear but they do deserve some praise for helping Tony Pollard to a huge game last week against the poor-tackling Browns. Pollard's been slightly more efficient running in the zone scheme compared to the gap scheme, and that's specifically the run game the Bengals have shown improvement against. The Bengals have also tackled better on runs in their past two games. You already knew not to expect a game anything close to what Pollard did last week, but even with the Titans hanging tough lately, this isn't a matchup I'd bank on big numbers from Pollard in.
- MUST-START: Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins
- START: Carnell Tate (borderline No. 2 WR), Chase Brown (No. 2 RB), Tony Pollard (low-end No. 2 RB), Bengals DST (one week only)
- SIT: Cam Ward, Samaje Perine (bye-week RB), Wan'Dale Robinson, Mike Gesicki, Michael Carter, Titans DST
The Broncos definitely played their safeties over the top of Michael Wilson on well more than half of his routes last week, but they rarely flat-out doubled him. The problem is, even that safety coverage was enough to deter Jacoby Brissett from throwing to Wilson -- 5 of his 8 targets last week were against man-to-man. But things just might work out this week for Wilson versus a Dallas defense that has played a little more man-to-man coverage on third downs, particularly when they blitz the quarterback. The Cowboys have also played the seventh-most single-high safety coverage in the league. Both of these factors really help Wilson, who has a Cardinals-best 36% target per route run rate and 2.11 yards per route rate average against single-high this season (and both numbers have boosted to 41.7% and 2.33 in two games since the Marvin Harrison Jr. trade). Wilson also attracts plenty of targets against man-to-man (32.8% target rate, but just 1.6 yards per route run). Tack on the high-scoring nature of this game and this should be Wilson's best week to put up numbers for a while, given the upcoming schedule for the Cardinals.
- MUST-START: Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, Javonte Williams, Trey McBride, George Pickens
- START: Michael Wilson
- FLEX: Zonovan Knight, Ryan Flournoy (low-end PPR flex)
- SIT: Jacoby Brissett (great bye-week QB), Kendrick Bourne, Tyler Allgeier, Jake Ferguson, Cowboys DST, Cardinals DST
Jared Goff's track record against Brian Flores' Vikings has actually been pretty good -- between 22 and 24.8 Fantasy points in three of his past five games -- but last Christmas was his absolute worst outing against him when he scored 4.1. Goff was blitzed a ton and forced to keep his passes relatively short (a common theme in his matchups with the Vikings). The only difference between last year's Vikings and this year's Vikings is that this year's Vikings are even more aggressive and are willing to blitz wayyy more than they have in the past. Their lowest blitz rate in a game this season was 56.5%, and their highest was last week against the Colts when they blitzed on 85.2% of Daniel Jones' dropbacks. The Lions rank seventh-best in pass rush pressure rate allowed, and tops in the NFL in pass rush pressure rate allowed when blitzed, but they're among the least-blitzed offenses in the NFL for good reason. The Vikings won't care; they're going to blitz Goff mercilessly and thus be a huge test for Detroit's O-line, and that's enough reason to be wary of anything more than a solid game from him.
You could have probably guessed that when Goff has been pressured and/or blitzed this season, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs have been his top-targeted teammates. But Sam LaPorta is third, landing a target per route run rate close to St. Brown's when Goff's pressured, and close to the same yard per route run rate as St. Brown when Goff is blitzed (2.77 yards for LaPorta is awfully good). LaPorta's lack of targets last week was a little bit about him chipping defenders on his way out on his route and more about Goff having time to attack downfield. That won't be the case this week, which is why I'd be fine going right back to LaPorta in lineups.
- MUST-START: Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown
- START: Justin Jefferson, Sam LaPorta, Jameson Williams (borderline No. 2/3 WR), Jordan Mason, TJ Hockenson, Vikings DST
- SIT: Jared Goff (high-end No. 2 QB), Kyler Murray, Jordan Addison, Isaac TeSlaa, Lions DST (two-week DST)
Indianapolis' two trades obviously weaken their entire team and can make them easier to beat. A positive game script would mean more carries for the Jaguars running backs, who have been led by Bhayshul Tuten's 15.7 carries per game. But Liam Coen spoke this week about creating more explosive runs, particularly when his offensive line carries out its assignment. In their past three games, it's been Chris Rodriguez with a better rushing average (5.0) and better explosive run rate (10.8%) than Tuten (3.6 and 9.8%). It's kind of hard to buy into Rodriguez displacing Tuten, but the case can be made for both to split duties to some degree. Usually, the carry discrepancy between Tuten and Rodriguez is wider when they play defenses with three or more linebackers on the field; the Colts almost exclusively play with two. Tuten is a worthy starter but Rodriguez has bye-week appeal.
- MUST-START: Jonathan Taylor
- START: Trevor Lawrence, Parker Washington, Bhayshul Tuten, Jaguars DST
- FLEX: Keenan Allen (PPR)
- SIT: Daniel Jones, Brenton Strange (bye-week TE), Jakobi Meyers, Chris Rodriguez (bye-week RB), Josh Downs, Brian Thomas Jr., Colts DST
Remember when the best part of the Raiders defense was its pass rush? It still might be the best part, but it's not productive. Since Week 3, they've accumulated eight sacks and a gross sack rate of 4.5% as they've faced better offensive lines. They'll see another good one in the Jets front five this week, a unit that ranks fifth-best in time to pressure allowed despite yielding an average of three sacks per week. Blended with the Raiders' single-high safety coverages when they play man or zone (usually zone), this should be a second-straight good game for Geno Smith. Not only might he need to throw a good amount, but his passing is more explosive against one-high looks than two-high. It would make sense for Smith to work on connecting with Garrett Wilson more -- Wilson's got some great numbers this season against Cover-1, which the Raiders will play their man-to-man coverage in. But Omar Cooper Jr. has been a winner for the Jets both on short routes and deep ones, and he's been great against single-high coverage in limited action. Maybe there's a teeny concern about the Jets run game succeeding to the point where Smith won't have to throw a ton. Still, the Raiders have defended a quarterback that's dropped back at least 30 times in every game this season, and if they're not going to pressure like they did earlier, then Smith should have time to rip some shots downfield against his old squad.
- MUST-START: Brock Bowers, Ashton Jeanty,
- START: Kirk Cousins, Geno Smith (low-end starter), Braelon Allen, Garrett Wilson, Omar Cooper Jr. (No. 2 WR), Tre Tucker (low-end No. 2 WR),
- FLEX: Adonai Mitchell (low-end flex)
- SIT: Mason Taylor (bye-week TE), Michael Mayer, Kenyon Sadiq, Mike Washington Jr., Cody White, Jets DST, Raiders DST
The Steelers have stuck with a pretty strong zone defense, usually with a single-high safety look. These are the exact conditions that seem to favor KC Concepcion and Harold Fannin, both of whom pulled down 10-plus PPR points in their first meeting with Pittsburgh. Denzel Boston got over 10 PPR points, too but he's had north of six PPR points once in the three games since. Boston has low target per route run rates both against zone coverage and single-high safety looks, with mediocre-to-awful yard per route run averages to boot. There's no arguing with Concepcion's target volume in the past four games he's finished (at least six targets in each), but expecting him to rage through the Steelers defense like he did the lowly Titans a week ago might be a little too far-fetched. Both receivers are in the flex conversation, and Fannin is worth a shot as a low-end starter.
Quinshon Judkins looked outstanding last week, but he owes a big thank you to his blockers -- and the Titans run defense. On every single big run, Judkins had ample space because he got some tremendous blocks from his big men, tight ends and receivers against an overmatched Tennessee back-end. The Steelers are a much tougher run defense outfit, ranking in the top seven in yards per rush allowed, runs of zero/negative yards gained against, and yards before contact per rush allowed. And when Judkins rolled on them in Week 4, it came on a Thursday night when the defense had played just three days earlier. Judkins is just one of two RBs to eclipse even 14 PPR points on Pittsburgh, with known names like Jonathan Taylor, Rhamondre Stevenson and Chase Brown each struggling. I do think Judkins could be helpful in the passing game (his metrics are outstanding against zone coverage and single-high safeties), but I thought the same thing last week and he saw one whole target.
- MUST-START: Jaylen Warren
- START: Quinshon Judkins (low-end No. 2 RB), Harold Fannin Jr., Steelers DST, Browns DST
- FLEX: DK Metcalf (high-end flex), Germie Bernard, KC Concepcion (PPR flex), Denzel Boston
- SIT: Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Watson, Dylan Sampson (bye-week RB), Rico Dowdle (desperation RB), Darnell Washington, Pat Freiermuth, Jerry Jeudy
Atlanta's defense changed a lot of their tendencies last week to surprise the 49ers but stayed true to their single-high safety scheme. That should remain this week to help stop the Bucs run game and get pressure on Mayfield in passing situations. Before Week 7, Mayfield was pressured on about a third of his dropbacks and struggled (47.7 QB rating with a 58% catchable ball rate). The Falcons are probably going to do what they can to make Mayfield uncomfortable, and they should also have a pretty good idea of the Buccaneers' offensive plan since their ex-playcaller Zac Robinson has been calling the shots in Tampa Bay this season. The Falcons run defense has been in the middle of the pack in efficiency so they're not at all a matchup to fear for Bucky Irving. The Falcons could deploy A.J. Terrell across from Emeka Egbuka when he lines up wide and make that matchup a little more difficult for the Bucs to connect on.
- MUST-START: Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Bucky Irving
- START: Kyle Pitts, Falcons DST
- FLEX: Chris Godwin (low-end PPR flex)
- SIT: Michael Penix Jr., Baker Mayfield, Jahan Dotson, Tez Johnson, Ted Hurst, Kenneth Gainwell, Cade Otton, Buccaneers DST
Blake Corum has been taking on a few more snaps in the first half of each of the Rams' past two games, getting closer to a 60/40 snap split compared to just below 70/30 in most of their first five games. The second halves remain game-script dependent: When the Rams have blown out opponents, we've seen a near-50/50 split between him and Kyren Williams, and when the Rams are in a close game or trailing, it's been almost all Williams. And sure enough, Corum's two biggest touch games came in the Rams' blowout wins. He's got some good Fantasy outings in competitive losses, but his touches aren't quite as high. I bring this up because this week's matchup figures to be a blowout win for the Rams against a Chargers squad whose offense has been messy all year and has only limited options to change things up this week. How might the Bolts keep this one close? A big dose of Ladd McConkey? More Kimani Vidal and his efficiency in the offense? A defense that gets pressure on Matthew Stafford? I get that the Bolts are thirsty for a win and claim they're going to simplify their offense coming out of the bye, but it's one of those things we have to see to believe, especially versus a Rams team that's a game below .500 and needs a win too. If this is a blowout, then Corum is absolutely in play as a flex given how the Rams have operated their run game so far.
- MUST-START: Puka Nacua, Kyren Williams
- START: Matthew Stafford, Rams DST
- FLEX: Blake Corum (non-PPR), Omarion Hampton (low-end non-PPR flex)
- SIT: Justin Herbert, Tyler Higbee (bye-week TE), Colby Parkinson, Quentin Johnston, Kimani Vidal, Keaton Mitchell, Charlie Kolar, Konata Mumpfield, Chargers DST
If the Broncos are looking for explosive plays, it would make sense for them to give Jonah Coleman playing time. Last week, he had an explosive play (run of 12-plus yards, catch of 16-plus yards) on 18.2% of his touches. On the season, he's been explosive on 16.7% of his touches, which isn't just the best of any Broncos running back but the best among all running backs with at least 20 touches. The film showed a big dude with good quickness, balance, patience and vision, along with the power to finish runs. JK Dobbins still has good vision and balance, too, but his quickness isn't quite the same as Coleman's, plus Coleman's been decent in the pass game (5-34-0 on five targets). The Chiefs got bowled over by the Seahawks' commitment to the run in the second half of last week, but still held their RBs to 3.4 yards per run. Before last week, Kansas City allowed 2.9, 2.8 and 2.7 yards per rush to the Dolphins, Raiders and Chargers. I don't think the Broncos will be able to run quite that much on Kansas City (they had 11 carries in Week 1), and their track record shouldn't be ignored. Coleman remains the Broncos RB to have long-term high hopes for, but no one should start him or Dobbins this week; R.J. Harvey carries the most appeal because of his work in the passing game.
- MUST-START: Kenneth Walker III
- START: Travis Kelce (borderline start), Chiefs DST, Broncos DST
- FLEX: R.J. Harvey (PPR), Courtland Sutton
- SIT: Patrick Mahomes, Bo Nix, Xavier Worthy (bye-week WR), Jonah Coleman, JK Dobbins, Evan Engram, Emmett Johnson
Miami's run defense still ranks second-worst in defensive rush success rate allowed, bottom six in defensive rush EPA, and bottom five in rate of 10-plus-yard runs allowed. And last week, Braelon Allen became the sixth consecutive running back to notch at least 15.8 PPR points on the Dolphins. This isn't to tell you the obvious advice to start Rhamondre Stevenson, who has a hammerlock on the Patriots' high-value RB touches, but it is to tell you that unless the Dolphins offense can put up some points, we might not see a ton of passing from Drake Maye. New England has two blowout wins -- one where Maye went off, another where he didn't have to. I'd normally be a little nervous starting Patriots pass catchers, but A.J. Brown has some obvious upside and is due for a get-right game against an inferior secondary. Hunter Henry has a tremendous matchup against a Dolphins defense that's allowed at least 10.4 PPR points to a tight end in five straight games, four of whom caught at least one score. Henry, along with rookie tight end Eli Raridon, has been among Maye's trusted red-zone targets since Week 4.
- MUST-START: Drake Maye
- START: Rhamondre Stevenson, Ollie Gordon, A.J. Brown, Hunter Henry, Patriots DST
- FLEX: Caleb Douglas (boom/bust flex)
- SIT: Malik Willis (bye-week QB), Malik Washington, Demario Douglas, TreVeyon Henderson (bye-week RB), Eli Raridon, Chris Bell, Dolphins DST
The Eagles pass rush was never particularly strong this year, but they set a low bar last week with just a 14.3% pass rush pressure rate against the Cowboys, among the lowest of any defense in any game this year. It was especially bad because Dak Prescott averaged 3.0 seconds per throw! Washington's offensive line hasn't played well, but they are coming off a bye and they've got one of the most elusive run-around QBs in the league in Jayden Daniels. Philly sacked him once in Week 1, and that was when they did happen to get over a 40% pressure rate on him. The rest of the Eagles defense has been a mess -- the run game has been blown apart in two straight games and outside corner Riq Woolen has allowed a touchdown in three straight -- so it's far from a dangerous matchup for Daniels. I'd expect Rachaad White to lead the Commanders run game and handle their passing down snaps, though I wouldn't expect a big game. I'd also expect Chig Okonkwo to especially land some targets in the middle of the field as both a short- and intermediate-area target against Philly's zone-heavy defense. Three of four tight ends with at least four targets against the Eagles have scored at least 11.7 PPR points.
- START: Jayden Daniels, Stefon Diggs, Saquon Barkley, Rachaad White (low-end No. 2 RB),
- Chig Okonkwo, Dallas Goedert (low-end start), Commanders DST (one-week start)
- FLEX: Antonio Williams (PPR)
- SIT: Tanner McKee, Makai Lemon (bye-week WR), Darius Cooper, Treylon Burks, Elijah Mitchell, Eagles DST
Patrick Mahomes and Kenneth Walker III were the latest Fantasy casualties of the Seahawks' amazing defense. They remain a very strong zone-coverage squad that doesn't blitz a lot but gets really good pass rush pressure on the quarterback anyway. The specific zone coverages they subscribe to are Caleb Williams' worst in terms of EPA per dropback, and Cover-6 has netted Williams a weak 3.2-yard average depth of throw this season. It's fair to expect this defense to give Williams problems, but in his limited snaps this season, Williams has definitely leaned on Luther Burden III against both Cover-3 (26.5% target per route run, 2.62 yards per route run) and Cover-6 (37.5% target per route run rate, 3.5 yards per route run). These are exceptional numbers that keep Burden in the starting conversation. Colston Loveland should be right there with him -- he's seen a 27.3% target per route rate with Williams in his past two games for just over two yards per route, and his 18.2% target per route rate against Cover-6 is second-best among Bears regulars, albeit with a weak 0.27 yards per route run. All of the other Bears players, including D'Andre Swift, carry some risk. Receptions have helped five running backs get at least 13 PPR points against the Seahawks, but only Christian McCaffrey has had over 15 PPR points this season.
- MUST-START: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
- START: D'Andre Swift (back-half No. 2 RB), Luther Burden III, Colston Loveland, Seahawks DST
- FLEX: Zach Charbonnet
- SIT: Caleb Williams, Sam Darnold, Emanuel Wilson, Rome Odunze, Cooper Kupp, Roschon Johnson, A.J. Barner, Kalif Raymond, Bears DST (desperation DST)