I'm worried about Spencer Strider. Again.
His return from his latest IL stint to open this season has mostly gone well, and it seems like there's been a lot of good vibes around him. That was especially true coming off his nine-strikeout effort this weekend, where, if he wasn't all the way back, it seemed like a lot of people were buying that Strider can still be a difference-making starter.
I'm not so sure I buy that. Part of that is because he struggled a bit in his follow-up start against the Red Sox Tuesday, giving up three runs over five-plus innings of work against what has been a pretty beatable matchup lately. But Strider still doesn't look like a true must-start pitcher to me, and that was true even before Tuesday.
The one thing Strider has been doing is missing bats, and that mostly continued Tuesday. He generated 11 whiffs on 87 pitches en route to five strikeouts, and he's sitting on a 13.8% whiff rate and 31% strikeout rate – not quite where he was at his best, but pretty good for any other pitcher. And he continues to miss bats with his entire arsenal, including three whiffs on the curveball and slider and two on the changeup Tuesday. That's a genuine sign of growth from a guy who has mostly been just a two-pitch pitcher even when he was arguably the best pitcher in baseball. Strider has had to evolve, and he has done it. That is to his credit.
But it has come with downsides. He walked three more batters Tuesday to push his season-long walk rate to 14.6%, and he allowed two more homers, giving him 2.1 per nine innings; with a 33% groundball rate for a guy who has always given up more loud contact than you'd like, that might not be a fluke. Add it all up, and you've got a 5.34 FIP backing up Strider's 3.46 ERA. That's pretty alarming.
Does that mean Strider is a sell-high candidate? It might, if someone in your league sees the ERA and the strikeout rates and thinks he's back to being one of the better pitchers in the league. If you could get, say, a top-25 SP type of return for Strider, I would absolutely be looking to trade him – and if you think that's unrealistic, Strider was SP29 in ADP coming into the season!
You might be able to move him for that kind of return, and you should absolutely try to, because I think there will be more disappointing starts like Tuesday's in the future. It doesn't mean I think he's going to be a disaster, or anything. I do suspect the walk rate will probably come down, and he probably won't keep giving up two homers every nine innings forever. But I do think those flaws will be a part of his game, because they are the tradeoffs he has to make to chase strikeouts in his current, diminished form. They are tradeoffs that are probably worth making, but they will limit how useful he will be for Fantasy because of what they'll do to his ERA and WHIP. It makes him someone I'm comfortable ranking as a top-40 starting pitcher for Fantasy, but not much higher than that.
Here's what else you need to know about from Tuesday's action around MLB:
Wednesday's top waiver-wire targets
Here's who we're looking to add coming out of Tuesday's action:
Gage Jump, SP, Athletics (23%) – Sometimes, teams are waiting for a prospect to give them a reason to promote them, and sometimes they're waiting for the right opportunity to open up. In Jump's case, it was the perfect combination of the two – he had shaken off his early-season command issues at the same time Aaron Civale required an IL stint. Jump is a lefty who sits around 96 mph with the fastball and features a five-pitch mix full of at least solid bat-missing potential, and with just one walk over his final two starts in Triple-A before his promotion, the A's deemed him ready. He wasn't dominant in his MLB debut Tuesday against the Mariners, who tagged him for four runs on nine hits over five innings of work, but I still thought he looked good enough to be worth adding in deeper leagues, at least. It helps that this was really just about one bad inning, as the Mariners jumped him for three runs in the second. There was a bit of hard contact later on in the outing, but for the most part, I thought Jump looked pretty good, generating 13 whiffs on 88 pitches even against a mostly righty-heavy lineup. There's plenty of upside here, and while he didn't immediately establish himself as someone you need to run out and add in all leagues, I think Jump is talented enough to be worth gambling on even after a somewhat disappointing debut.
Cade Cavalli, SP, Nationals (55%) – Given the upside we've seen him show at times, I'm surprised Cavalli's roster rate is as low as it is. It's not like I've been pounding the table for him to be 100% rostered, or anything, but he did put up consecutive starts with double-digit strikeouts at the end of April and has been mostly pretty good since then, so seeing his roster rate as low as it is was surprising. I still think there are going to be some really ugly starts along the way for someone who gets hit as hard as Cavalli tends to. But his expected wOBA on contact entering play Tuesday was actually down to .373, basically a league-average mark, and that combined with above-average strikeout rates should be enough to make him pretty useful overall. Tuesday was Cavalli's third straight quality start with at least seven strikeouts, a streak only nine other pitchers have managed this season.
Anthony Volpe, SS, Yankees (25%) – Is Volpe a post-hype breakout? He's actually been excellent since returning to the Yankees lineup, hitting .281 with a huge walk rate, and he hit his first homer of the season Tuesday. Add in a couple of steals in 10 games, and he actually looks pretty good right now, especially with his pulled-air rate up to 29.4%, a key metric for a player with otherwise limited raw power. The problem is that he's still striking out 27% of the time and doesn't have a clear everyday role now that Jose Caballero is back from the IL – Volpe has sat out two of the past four games. The Yankees might just decide to bench Ryan McMahon outright and roll with Volpe and Caballero, but until they do, it's hard to look at Volpe as anything more than a deep-league middle infielder, especially since I'm still pretty skeptical about him sustaining a strong bat.
Esmerlyn Valdez, OF, Pirates (10%) – It wasn't clear what Valdez's role was going to look like when the Pirates called him up, but he has started four of five games since, which is a good start. Even better: He has homered in two of those four games, which is what the Pirates called him up to do. The bad news? Seven strikeouts in 14 plate appearances to date is pretty rough, and also fits in with the pre-promotion scouting reports for Valdez. He'll need to make contact more consistently, but he's at least getting the opportunity and showing some upside so far, for those of you in deeper leagues.
Vaughn Grissom, 1B, Angels (4%) – I want to buy into Grissom as a post-hype sleeper. I was in on him back in his Atlanta days and thought he would emerge as a very useful Fantasy option for the Red Sox, too. And he's had his moments this season, including Tuesday, when he went 3 for 5 with a homer and a whopping six RBI as the Angels beat the Tigers 10-6. The Angels have had some success with other former top prospects, but outside of a few big games, Grissom hasn't done much, and he has only started five of the past nine games, so I think he's really only worth adding in deeper, daily lineup leagues unless he starts hitting more consistently.
Tuesday's standouts
Joe Ryan, Twins @CHW: 7.2 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 9 K – I think there might be some value in exploring a sell-high trade for Ryan. Not because I don't think he's good, or because I think his success is a fluke. It's just that he has had enough arm injury scares over the past year that I do think there is still some elevated risk of things going sideways on him. If he stays healthy, he should remain a top-15 SP, but if you could flip him for someone like Logan Gilbert plus another piece, I would at least consider it.
Chase Burns, Reds @NYM: 5.1 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 8 K – I'm not saying Burns should be ranked ahead of Cam Schlittler, who had another excellent start Tuesday. But I'm not sure he shouldn't at least be in the same tier as Schlittler and Nolan McLean, the other second-year pitchers who seem to be ahead of Burns in the popular conception. Burns is down to a 3.00 ERA with a 32% strikeout rate for his career now, and the only real knock you can make on him is that there might be some elevated injury risk based on last August's flexor strain (plus how hard he throws). That's fair, but I'm not sure it should be enough to keep Burns from being ranked as a top-12 SP at this point.
Braxton Ashcraft, Pirates vs. CHC: 6.1 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5 K – What you love to see from Ashcraft is the ability to thrive in different ways. This time around, he leaned heavily on his slider, throwing it 41% of the time, nearly double his season average, and it was excellent: Six whiffs and a 38% called-plus-swinging strike rate. Ashcraft has also gone at least six innings in eight of his 11 starts, so you're getting plenty of volume from him. I don't necessarily think he'll sustain a sub-3.00 ERA, but outside of a limited track record, it's pretty hard to find any holes to poke in Ashcraft's game – and even that track record includes a 2.71 ERA over 69.2 IP last season. He might just be a top-30 SP the rest of the way.
Kyle Harrison, Brewers vs. STL: 6 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K – Weird start. I'm not sure what to make of it. Harrison had just four swinging strikes on 92 pitches in this one, but nothing about his arsenal really stood out to make it happen – his fastball and breaking ball both had pretty much the same movement profile as always, and yet he generated just two whiffs on each pitch. I'm mostly inclined to write it off as a fluke, given how good Harrison has been this season. But it's something I want to keep a close eye on, given how much Harrison has improved in such a small sample this season – if he gives all of those gains back, I wouldn't be shocked.
Emerson Hancock, Mariners @ATH: 6 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 3 K – Hancock is tough to figure out. He's definitely improved. But how much has he improved? Well, he had a couple of starts at the end of April where the strikeout rate was starting to flag, and then he went out and struck out 14 in his May 2 start, which made it seem kind of silly to focus on the few starts where he wasn't missing bats. Well, after Tuesday, he has just 17 strikeouts combined over his four starts since that 14-strikeout effort. The results have still mostly been good (3.13 ERA with five of the eight runs allowed coming in one start in that span), but the lack of strikeouts is starting to become notable. I'm not panicking or anything, but I do think it's more likely Hancock is like an eight K/9 guy than someone who averages a strikeout per inning moving forward. That's not a huge difference, but it does make him just a little less appealing – and he's another pitcher I would at least consider dangling on the trade market while his value is at its highest.
Sandy Alcantara, Marlins @TOR: 5.2 IP, 10 H, 8 ER, 1 BB, 4 K – Woof, yeah, it might be time for me to take the L on this one. Alcantara was actually pitching well through the first five innings in this one, but he has now allowed at least six runs in consecutive starts and has a 6.53 ERA over the past nine starts. The swinging strike rate has been better this season, but it hasn't been converting to strikeouts, and it's not like he has a great supporting cast around him to lift him up. I suspect Alcantara will be much better moving forward, and I would take the under on a 4.00 ERA the rest of the way despite his struggles. But I wish I had something more than a bit of blind faith to pin that on.
Shane Baz, Orioles vs. TB: 7 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 9 K – Hey, let's just let Baz face his former team every time out. He has 15 strikeouts while allowing just two earned runs in two starts in a row against the Rays, which is really the first time in a long time that he has looked like a top-of-the-rotation starter. To be honest, I've mostly given up on those hopes at this point, because there just isn't much beyond his curveball to point to as reason to think Baz can be that kind of pitcher – his fastball especially is just getting crushed, with a .391 expected wOBA against entering this start. There will be more good starts moving forward, and Baz is a decent two-start streamer with the Red Sox and Blue Jays coming up next week. But I don't have a ton of faith in him beyond that.
Aaron Nola, Phillies @SD: 6 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 5 K – The curveball was awesome in this one, generating seven swinging strikes on 49% usage. That's pretty typical for Nola, but what was notable about this one was the good results on his two fastballs, which did a great job of missing barrels and limiting damage on contact. Given how rarely that has happened for Nola before this one, I think we definitely need to see more than just one good start from Nola, who is a low-priority two-start streamer for next week.
Sean Burke, White Sox vs. MIN: 7 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 8 K – Burke enjoyed some success early in the season, but he entered Tuesday's start having failed to finish the fifth inning in three straight starts. He threw his sinker a bit more often than usual in this one, but I'm not sure that's enough to say this was something to build on. Burke is a pretty good pitcher who can take advantage of a good matchup, and that's what he did here. I think he's an okay streamer for his next start against the Tigers, but he's a low priority for a matchup in Philadelphia next week.
Eduardo Rodriguez, Diamondbacks @SF: 6 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 6 K – I don't know if anyone is buying, but Rodriguez looks like one of the more obvious sell-high candidates in baseball right now. He pitched well yet again Tuesday, generating 13 whiffs, six of them on the changeup. But he also did it against a pretty bad Giants lineup that ended up going just 1 for 6 with runners in scoring position despite plenty of hard contact. He has a 2.31 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, and his 8.8% K-BB rate is the fifth-lowest mark among 76 qualifiers at starting pitcher. Of course, given his track record, "selling high" on Rodriguez might just mean waiting until he has a bad start and dropping him unceremoniously.
Randy Vasquez, Padres vs. PHI: 5.2 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 2 K – The wheels haven't completely come off for Vasquez, who still has a decent 3.71 ERA in five May starts. But the strikeout rate has completely collapsed back to pre-2026 levels, and we're starting to see it affect his results, with seven runs over 10 innings in his past two starts. Vasquez could be a decent streamer moving forward, especially at home, but he's also easy enough to get rid of if someone more exciting pops up on waivers.
Michael McGreevy, Cardinals @MIL: 4 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 6 K – Yeah, that was always how this was going to end. McGreevy had a stretch of four straight quality starts come to an end in his last start, and now, after this one, he has allowed eight runs and 17 hits over his past nine innings of work. He doesn't miss many bats and is a decent groundball pitcher, but hardly an elite one, so McGreevy's sub-3.00 ERA was never going to be sustainable. I don't really think he needs to be rostered outside of the deepest leagues, where you are streaming basically any pitcher with a pulse.
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