Fantasy baseball waiver wire: Garrett Crochet shows minor red flags despite ace expectations

Emerging waiver options highlight key trends across MLB

I want to be clear: I'm not worried about Garrett Crochet. I think he's one of the three best pitchers in baseball, and I think he's almost certainly going to be an absolute ace for Fantasy this season.

But he isn't quite right right now. 

Is that an overreaction to a rough start Wednesday? Well, that start is certainly part of why I'm saying it. He was tagged for four runs in five innings against the Astros, a disappointing showing even against a pretty solid lineup. But the reason I'm saying Crochet isn't quite right isn't just because of the results. This goes back to Spring Training.

And again, it's not about the results, though Crochet's were poor. It's about the process. Crochet's velocity was fine this spring, but he never quite felt right with his four-seam fastball. After one start, he noted how ironic it was "that the ones I feel good with are the ones that are moving, but the one that is going straight is the one that's the toughest to locate." 

The four-seamer looked solid, and he threw it 38% of the time in his Opening Day gem, but it wasn't there for him Wednesday. He threw it just 15% of the time and threw just 5 of 14 in the strike zone, a continuation of his spring struggles. And, notably, while his velocity was fine across the rest of his arsenal, it was down 1.6 mph on the four-seamer specifically.

Do I think this means Crochet is going to struggle like this moving forward? Not at all. I mean, it's possible, but that's just because we should be open-minded to the possibility that every player has a relatively wide range of possible outcomes. But I'm not expecting Crochet to struggle this season. 

But it's noteworthy when an elite pitcher isn't quite right. He has a deep enough arsenal to overcome that, but Crochet has thrown that four-seamer at least 36% of the time in each of his two full seasons as a starter, so if he can't get the feel for it soon, that's going to make things a bit more complicated for him. And I do wonder if his offseason tinkering with the hopes of expanding his arsenal – he scrapped an experiment with a splitter at the end of spring, most notably – hasn't messed with Crochet's ability to throw his four-seamer consistently. 

Of course, it wasn't really an issue in his debut, so there's no reason to think this is going to wreck his season. It just means there might be a bit more inconsistency in Crochet's game for the time being. You're still starting him in all leagues, but with just a smidge less confidence than usual. 

But he'll almost certainly figure it out. I have confidence in that. 

Now, let's get to everything else you need to know from Wednesday's action around MLB:     

Thursday's top waiver-wire targets

Here's who we're looking to add coming out of Wednesday's action: 

Lucas Erceg, RP, Royals (41%) – Not that there was much doubt about it at this point, but with Carlos Estevez placed on the IL with a foot contusion, Erceg is locked in as the Royals closer for the time being. The Royals are going to take that time to work on Erceg's mechanics to see if they can rediscover the lost velocity he has been dealing with, but I think there's a decent chance Erceg just runs away with this job in the interim. And if not, well, I don't exactly have much confidence in Estevez coming back to take the job from him at this point. 

Dylan Beavers, OF, Orioles (41%) – Beavers' skill set should work really well for Fantasy. He's got a good eye at the plate and a patient approach, with enough of both power and speed to think there could be at least 20-20 upside here in the long run. But he needs to get hot to force his way into the lineup more consistently, because he has started just four of six games to date, despite all six games coming against right-handed starters. Well, Wednesday's game was his first big one as he went 3 for 5 with his first homer and three runs scored. 

Liam Hicks, C, Marlins (14%) – He did it again. Hicks went deep Wednesday for his third homer of the season, and he now has an MLB-best 12 RBI through the first week of the season. Now, he has only started four of six games to date, though I would expect Hicks to play at least every time the Marlins face a righty moving forward, and he has been hitting cleanup when he's in the lineup. I don't really trust Hicks to

Wednesday's standouts

Paul Skenes, Pirates @CIN: 5 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 5 K – That was better than the first start. It's still a bit frustrating that the Pirates pulled him after just 77 pitches when he didn't even get out of the first inning in his first start, but the bullpen and offense did enough to get Skenes his first win of the season. We'll take it. 

Chris Sale, Braves vs. ATH: 6 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 3 K – The lack of strikeouts and the fact that Sale's velocity was down about 3-3.5 mph on every pitch might look like a red flag. Look past it. Sale was ill, and manager Walt Weiss told reporters he wasn't even sure Sale would be able to give them 3-4 innings. He went 6 for the quality start and the win, and I would expect the velocity to be back for the next start. 

Kevin Gausman, Blue Jays vs. COL: 6 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 10 K – This is what good pitchers are supposed to do in great matchups. Gausman has allowed just one run over 12 innings to date with 21 strikeouts and zero walks, and he's somehow winless through two starts. You can count on more support moving forward, and when Gausman is this locked in with his splitter (11 whiffs on 49% usage Tuesday), he's an obvious must-start pitcher. 

George Kirby, Mariners vs. NYY: 6 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 6 K – Given that he was good in his first start of the season, I'm willing to write this off as Kirby having an off night against a good lineup. He worked his changeup more in this one against a lefty-heavy lineup, and his velocity was up across the board; he just wasn't fooling anyone. There were some changes to Kirby's pitch movement profile, especially to his slider, that weren't there in the first start, so I think we can also chalk this one up to Kirby not having the feel tonight. It happens. 

Cam Schlittler, Yankees @SEA: 6.1 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 7 K – Yeah, I'm just starting to think I was too low on Schlittler – and it's not like I was especially low on him. His fastball-heavy approach works because he might just have three great fastballs now that he's throwing his cutter in the mid-90s, and it just seems nearly impossible for opposing hitters to do much with that combo. And it's not like the non-fastballs here are bad. I have some lingering concerns about his ability to stay healthy given the massive velocity jump in recent years, but I have that concern about basically every pitcher. It's kind of silly to hold that against a guy who is currently healthy. He might just be an ace. 

Sandy Alcantara, Marlins vs. CHW: 9 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 7 K – This is what good pitchers are supposed to do in great matchups, though in this instance, I think there was perhaps some skepticism about whether Alcantara was still a good pitcher after last season. If you've been reading this newsletter, you know I never shared those concerns, and it's been nice to get some confirmation that he's back in his first two starts. Yes, it's been against two of the best matchups any pitcher could ask for, but they've also been vintage Alcantara starts, so I don't see much reason to be skeptical. 

Jacob Misiorowski, Brewers vs. TB: 6 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 7 K – He's been pretty tremendous through his first two starts, and he dominated the Rays with a pretty straightforward approach – a bunch of fastballs, a handful of sliders, and then sprinklings of the rest of the arsenal. The fastball is so good (eight whiffs) that it's a workable approach, of course. The question is whether he can keep throwing strikes consistently, and my guess is that there will be some ugly stretches in the future, but not enough to fully sink Misiorowski. 

Nick Pivetta, Padres vs. SF: 5 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 8 K – Well, that was weird. Pivetta bounced back from an ugly debut by simplifying his approach and throwing his four-seamer 68% of the time. The pitch was working well for him with both an extra tick of velocity and an extra inch of induced vertical break, which is how you can get away with spamming fastballs like that. Is it likely to be sustainable? No, I think this was just a one-start thing on a day when his fastball was especially effective. Pivetta has tweaked the movement on his sweeper relative to last season, so maybe the heavy fastball usage in this one was a function of the rest of the arsenal being a bit of a work in progress? Either way, I expect Pivetta to remain solid moving forward, even if I still don't expect a repeat of last year's success. 

Nathan Eovaldi, Rangers @BAL: 4 IP, 8 H, 6 ER, 3 BB, 5 K – Eovaldi is seemingly searching for some answers amid his rough stretch. Tuesday, he spiked his curveball usage to 27%, up from 10% in his first start and 20% last season. The one consistent thing from the first two starts has been the deprioritization of the fastballs, as he combined to throw his sinker and four-seamer just 17% of the time in this one and around 21% last time out. I don't see much reason to think Eovaldi's struggles are likely to continue, but if you have the depth, I'm not totally opposed to sitting Eovaldi for next week's start against the Mariners. 

Trevor Rogers, Orioles vs. TEX: 6 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 3 K – At some point, we're going to need to see more strikeouts from Rogers, with just eight in his first 13 innings of the season. Of course, he's put together two quality starts in a row to open the season in an era where few pitchers consistently go six innings, so I'm not going to complain too much. Especially when he still had 12 whiffs and just five batted balls out of 20 to be hit with 95-plus mph of exit velocity. I suppose you could make a case that Rogers is a sell-high candidate, but seeing how much skepticism there was about his breakout this draft season, I just don't think you're going to get enough in return to make it worth it. One interesting note here: Rogers introduced a sweeper into his arsenal for the first time Tuesday, but he used it primarily against right-handed batters. I'm not sure that's an approach I like moving forward, even if it worked in this one. 

Gavin Williams, Guardians @LAD: 7 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 10 K – I mean, yeah, sure. Williams will do that against a lineup like that occasionally. And, of course, it came after he gave up three runs and walked six in five innings against the Mariners in his opener. That's not to say there's nothing to take away from this one – he suddenly started leading with his sweeper, throwing it 27% of the time after he used it just 8% of the time in the opener, and it was excellent, generating six whiffs on 10 swings. But here's the frustrating thing about Williams: Just because he was amazing Wednesday doesn't mean you can rely on him to be great the next time around. The consistency remains the issue here, and while I'm hopeful he can build on this, I'm not counting on it. 

Drew Rasmussen, Rays @MIL: 5 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 8 K – You usually don't expect big strikeout totals from Rasmussen, but American Family Field is actually the second-most strikeout-friendly venue in baseball. That's interesting because it has very similar strikeout part factors as Tropicana, where Rasmussen will make roughly half his remaining starts. The last time we saw Rasmussen as a starter in Tropicana, he had a 26.6% strikeout rate, so there could be a strikeout boost on the way here. 

Matthew Boyd, Cubs vs. LAA: 5.2 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 10 K – The strikeouts were there in the first start, but when he wasn't missing bats, he was getting crushed. There was still some hard-hit contact in this one – 94.8 mph average exit velocity on six batted balls against the fastball stands out – but he limited the damage a lot better while missing a ton of bats. Don't expect Boyd to be as good as he was in the first half of last season, but I still feel good about him as a mid-3.00s ERA pitcher, at least. 

Zac Gallen, Diamondbacks vs. DET: 6 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K – The velocity continues to look fine, maybe a half-tick up from last season. But he wasn't really fooling anyone in this one, generating just six swinging strikes on 88 pitches as he just didn't seem to have great feel for his curve in this one. Gallen had two outs on batted balls with an expected batting average over .600, including a double play, so I think it's fair to say there was some good luck on his side in this one. The spring hopes fueled by his improved velocity haven't come to fruition yet. 

Matthew Liberatore, Cardinals vs. NYM: 6 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 2 K – There was some renewed interest in Liberatore this spring, but I'm not really sure I see it even after this start. He has just four strikeouts in his first 11 innings and had just four whiffs Tuesday. There are some mild tweaks to his cutter and four-seamer shape, but if it isn't leading to more missed bats than in the past, I'm not sure I should care much. I think Liberatore is still just a streamer. 

Shane Smith, White Sox @MIA: 3 IP, 8 H, 7 ER, 2 BB, 1 K – There will be better days ahead for Smith. But he tried to reinvent himself as a sinker-baller in this one, which was a curious decision against a lineup with more lefties than righties and, well, it went about as well as you would expect. I'm not saying Smith is totally devoid of upside, but I'm not sure the ceiling is high enough or likely enough to be reached to say he's worth hanging on to when he's allowed 10 earned runs in his first 4.2 innings. 

Cade Cavalli, Nationals @PHI: 6 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 3 K – Cavalli was the only member of the Nationals rotation entering the season with any kind of appeal for Fantasy, so should we take any interest in this one? It was a nice start against a solid lineup, but nothing looked all that impressive here – nine whiffs on 84 pitches is fine, but he mostly thrived in this one by limiting hard contact. That's not a bad thing, but I'm not sure it's sustainable. He's just a streamer for the right matchups, which could include his next two starts against the Cardinals and Pirates. 

Oneil Cruz, OF, Pirates – That's two days in a row with a homer off a lefty. Cruz is now 5 for 7 against lefties in the very early going. Again, very early, but if Cruz can actually hit lefties even moderately well, my bust call of him is probably going to end up looking pretty dumb. 

News and notes

Konnor Griffin and the Pirates are deep into negotiations on a contract extension that would presumably accelerate his timetable to the majors. According to Buster Olney's report, the Pirates offered eight years, $111 million, but Griffin is seeking something more like eight years, $130 million. That feels like a relatively small difference, one they should be able to bridge, and I still expect to see Griffin in the majors before the end of April. 

Chase DeLauter was not in the lineup Wednesday, but manager Stephen Vogt said DeLauter was always going to get this day off as a scheduled day. He left Tuesday after fouling a ball off his left foot, but x-rays were negative, so hopefully he's fine for the weekend. 

Zack Wheeler will make another rehab start at Triple-A on Friday. He's expected to throw 50-55 pitches and will make at least one more rehab start before the Phillies decide whether it's time to bring him back to the rotation. 

Blake Snell will likely face hitters once the Dodgers return to Los Angeles from their upcoming six-game road trip. I'd guess we still won't see him until May as he works his way back from shoulder fatigue. 

Shohei Ohtani's next scheduled pitching start will come Wednesday, April 8, against the Blue Jays. With the Dodgers pushing Ohtani's start back, Justin Wrobleski will get a sport start somewhere in between.

Seiya Suzuki will begin a rehab assignment at Double-A on Friday and should be back sometime next week -- possibly by Monday, depending on how the weekend goes. 

Jeremy Pena could be ready to play in B2B games this weekend. They've been easing him after that fractured finger during spring training.

Jordan Westburg was transferred to the 60-day IL, which means the earliest he can return is May 21. He's working his way back from a partially torn UCL in his right elbow.

Carlos Rodon threw on flat ground and a little bit off the mound Wednesday. He's recovering from elbow surgery, but also recent hamstring tightness.

Zach Eflin was officially placed on the IL Wednesday with right elbow discomfort. We're still waiting for the MRI results.

Cody Ponce will visit Dr. Neal ElAttrache on Monday to determine whether he needs ACL surgery or not.

Kirby Yates threw an abbreviated bullpen session Wednesday. He said afterward that his knee felt healthy but that he still needs to sharpen his stuff before he pitches in a game.

Martin Perez may replace Jose Suarez when Atlanta next needs a fifth starter Sunday against the Diamondbacks. Eventually, it'll be Didier Fuentes, probably after a few turns in the rotation in Triple-A. 

Triston Casas has been shut down from hitting after sustaining a left intercostal strain. It's just been one thing after another for this kid, which is a bummer because I still think there could be some upside here if he can get on the field.