When the season opened, there was an obvious trio of starting pitchers making up the top tier of the position, and then there was everyone else. By the time early May rolled around, Paul Skenes was the only one left standing, with Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet on the IL with injuries that still have them on the sidelines as mid-June approaches.
So, Skenes stands alone, right? Well, not quite. He's in the midst of a little bit of a cold streak that has his ERA above 3.00 – gasp! – but none of the underlying numbers suggest there is anything to be concerned about. His strikeout rate is right in line with last season's, his walk rate is actually a career-low rate, and there's no reason to believe he's suddenly going to struggle to limit hard contact when he's been exemplary at that skill since the second he stepped onto an MLB field.
And yet, Skenes no longer looks like he has separated himself from the field at starting pitcher. Because at least one member of the field seems to have joined him at the top of the heap.
Cristopher Sanchez had yet another masterful performance Monday night. Sure, he allowed a run for the second start in a row – two, this time, in fact! – but he was nonetheless utterly dominant again. He limited the Blue Jays to just the two runs on four hits and a walk over seven innings while striking out 10. That pushes his strikeout rate above 30% for the first time, and gives him a 1.54 ERA and eight wins in 93.1 innings of work over his first 14 starts. He's in the middle of an absolutely stupendous run, and at this point, I do think he needs to be included among the top tier at the position.
Mostly because of the massive volume edge you're getting from him. He and Skenes have a fairly similar strikeout rate these days, for example, but Sanchez has a 31-strikeout edge on Skenes after this one – it does come with a one-start edge, too, but that doesn't explain even close to everything. Sanchez has gone at least seven innings in seven straight starts, while Skenes has done it just three times all season; he has gone at least six innings just five times, something Sanchez has done 11 times now.
Even if you think Skenes is the better pitcher on a per-inning basis, Sanchez is giving us an average of 1.3 innings per start more. Skenes might be better on a per-inning basis – might! – but even in a Roto league, I think Sanchez's volume is enough to narrow the gap. It might be enough to put him ahead of Skenes, even.
It's harder to say Sanchez is definitely the top pitcher in Fantasy when Tarik Skubal might make his next turn in the rotation. But I do think he's put himself in that discussion with the growth in his strikeout rate this season. We are also seeing him during the midst of the absolute best stretch of his career, so some regression from this point is to be expected. But coming off a 200-inning season and on pace for yet another, it's hard to argue there's any pitcher who is more valuable than Sanchez right now.
Tuesday's top waiver-wire targets
Here's who we're looking to add coming out of Monday's action:
Jung Hoo Lee, OF, Giants (62%) – Lee is just absurdly hot right now. He went 4 for 5 with a couple of runs scored Monday and is not 27 for 46 in 11 games since coming off the IL to boost his season-long average to .330. He has, predictably, hit for little power in that stretch, and it's always a bit of an empty batting average from Lee even when things are going well, which is why his roster rate remains relatively modest. In the long run, he'll probably hit something like .270-.280 and do little else notable, but while he's locked in like this, it makes sense to just add Lee and ride it until he cools off. For what it's worth, he is posting the best underlying metrics of his career, including a .311 expected average, the best mark in baseball. So it isn't a fluke, even if it likely won't last forever.
Bryce Eldridge, DH, Giants (57%) – Eldridge gets a nice little boost to his Fantasy appeal after Monday's game, as he made his fifth appearance at first base and gains eligibility there. He also went 2 for 5 with a double, a run, and an RBI, as he continues to at least look like he belongs. He hasn't hit for as much power as you would expect for a guy with a 92 mph average exit velocity, and home park certainly plays a part in that in a way that could limit his appeal moving forward. But Eldridge has his strikeout rate down to a very manageable 23.4% and has a .377 xwOBA and .294 xBA, so he's finding other ways to produce despite the lack of over-the-fence pop to date. Given his prospect status and how well he is hitting already, I don't see much reason to be skeptical about Eldridge at this point.
Ian Seymour, RP, Rays (10%) – Seymour has shown very interesting skills whenever he's been trusted as a starter in the majors, and that was true yet again Monday when he made an unexpectedly lengthy start against the Red Sox. Seymour, who hasn't thrown more than two innings in any outing this season, made it through four on 55 pitches in this one, allowing one run on one hit and one walk and striking out five. Remember, he had a 3.16 ERA and 10.9 K/9 in five starts last season and has always put up good minor-league numbers, so I'd like to see the Rays continue to stretch him out. His RP eligibility could make him an especially interesting option if they go down that path.
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