Fantasy Baseball 'Do Not Drop' List: Reassessing which players are droppable at the six-week mark

While the time has come to reassess priors, dropping these players is still beyond the pale

If there's one idea that 18 years on this job has reinforced in me, it's that people, by and large, can't see beyond what's happening right now. They'll show the utmost discipline on Draft Day and then abandon it all the moment some fresh face on the waiver wire gives them a wink, like they're Don Draper or something.

As such, the early stages of every season become a battle of wills, with me insisting that so little of what Fantasy Baseballers are seeing is real and them insisting that I must not be paying attention.

But there does come a point when a new season's data is more than just noise, when developments have continued for long enough to become trends, requiring me to reassess my priors.

And that point is about six weeks in, which is where we are now.

I don't want to overstate the case. Nothing that happens over a six-week sample should supersede what's happened over a multi-year sample, and many players' stat lines right now are still a poor reflection of what they're eventually going to be. To demonstrate using a tried-and-true exercise, here were some of the most misleading stat lines through the six-week point of last season.

• Max Muncy (LAD) was batting .177 with 1 HR
• Jazz Chisholm was batting .181 with a 31% K rate
• Christian Yelich was batting .197 with a .657 OPS
• Yordan Alvarez was batting .210 with a .646 OPS
• Vinnie Pasquantino was batting .210 with a .649 OPS
• Cody Bellinger was batting .215 with a .676 OPS
• Sandy Alcantara had an 8.42 ERA
• Gavin Williams had a 5.06 ERA
• Chris Sale had a 4.07 ERA
• Nick Lodolo had just 6.8 K/9

Bet you're glad you didn't abandon ship on them then. Or did you?

Of course, it's less about the overall stat line, which I think most of us recognize can be easily skewed right now, than the overall impression. If a player hasn't had a single stretch in which he's looked like who you drafted him to be, then you have to at least entertain the possibility that something may be wrong. Again, it could still be misleading. Any longer amount of time you can give a struggling player is going to make for a more accurate assessment. But I live in the real world, where roster space is limited, and new temptations are constantly emerging on the waiver wire. Sometimes you just need an excuse to move on.

I'm going to make this as simple as I can, understanding that no list can be truly one-size-fits-all due to the variety of league sizes and scoring formats, and rattle off all the players that under no circumstances could I see myself dropping -- a "do not drop" list, in other words. Many will be obvious. Others less so. But at least for this moment in time, I can offer complete clarity on the subject.

You'll note that the list for Rotisserie leagues is longer at most every position on account of there being so many more lineup spots to fill (presuming two catcher spots, five outfielder spots, a corner infield spot and a middle infield spot).

Catcher

H2H and Roto 1) Cal Raleigh, SEA 2) Drake Baldwin, ATL 3) Ben Rice, NYY 4) Shea Langeliers, ATH 5) William Contreras, MIL 6) Ivan Herrera, STL 7) Hunter Goodman, COL Roto only 8) Adley Rutschman, BAL 9) Will Smith, LAD 10) Salvador Perez, KC 11) Samuel Basallo, BAL 12) Carter Jensen, KC 13) Liam Hicks, MIA 14) Francisco Alvarez, NYM 15) Gabriel Moreno, ARI 16) Dalton Rushing, LAD 17) Dillon Dingler, DET 18) Ryan Jeffers, MIN

First base

H2H and Roto 1) Nick Kurtz, ATH 2) Vladimir Guerrero, TOR 3) Matt Olson, ATL 4) Pete Alonso, BAL 5) Bryce Harper, PHI 6) Freddie Freeman, LAD 7) Sal Stewart, CIN 8) Ben Rice, NYY 9) Josh Naylor, SF 10) Rafael Devers, SF 11) Munetaka Murakami, CHW 12) Yandy Diaz, TB Roto only 13) Christian Walker, HOU 14) Vinnie Pasquantino, KC 15) Michael Busch, CHC 16) Tyler Soderstrom, ATH 17) Jonathan Aranda, TB 18) Salvador Perez, KC 19) Isaac Paredes, HOU 20) Willson Contreras, BOS 21) Miguel Vargas, CHW 22) Ryan O'Hearn, PIT 23) Alec Burleson, STL 24) Spencer Torkelson, DET

Second base

H2H and Roto 1) Fernando Tatis Jr., SD 2) Jazz Chisholm, NYY 3) Ketel Marte, ARI 4) Brice Turang, MIL 5) Nico Hoerner, CHC 6) Ozzie Albies, ATL 7) Luke Keaschall, MIN 8) JJ Wetherholt, STL 9) Brandon Lowe, PIT 10) Jose Altuve, HOU Roto only 11) Xavier Edwards, MIA 12) Otto Lopez, MIA

Third base

H2H and Roto 1) Jose Ramirez, CLE 2) Junior Caminero, TB 3) Jazz Chisholm, NYY 4) Manny Machado, SD 5) Sal Stewart, CIN 6) Austin Riley, ATL 7) Maikel Garcia, KC 8) Bo Bichette, NYM 9) Kevin McGonigle, DET 10) Alex Bregman, CHC 11) Max Muncy, LAD H2H only 12) Eugenio Suarez, CIN 13) Isaac Paredes, HOU 14) Kazuma Okamoto, TOR 15) Colson Montgomery, CHW 16) Miguel Vargas, CHW 17) Matt Chapman, SF

Shortstop

H2H and Roto 1) Bobby Witt, KC 2) Elly De La Cruz, CIN 3) Gunnar Henderson, BAL 4) Francisco Lindor, NYM 5) C.J. Abrams, WAS 6) Trea Turner, PHI 7) Zachary Neto, LAA 8) Geraldo Perdomo, ARI 9) Corey Seager, TEX 10) Bo Bichette, NYM 11) Mookie Betts, LAD 12) JJ Wetherholt, STL 13) Kevin McGonigle, DET 14) Konnor Griffin, DET 15) Jeremy Pena, HOU Roto only 16) Colson Montgomery, CHW 17) Otto Lopez, MIA 18) Xavier Edwards, MIA 19) Trevor Story, BOS 20) Dansby Swanson, CHC 21) Willy Adames, SF 22) Xander Bogaerts, SD 23) Jacob Wilson, ATH

Outfield

H2H and Roto 1) Aaron Judge, NYY 2) Juan Soto, NYM 3) Corbin Carroll, ARI 4) Yordan Alvarez, HOU 5) Kyle Tucker, LAD 6) Ronald Acuna Jr., ATL 7) Julio Rodriguez, SEA 8) James Wood, WAS 9) Jackson Chourio , MIL 10) Fernando Tatis Jr., SD 11) Cody Bellinger, NYY 12) Mike Trout, LAA 13) Randy Arozarena, SEA 14) Oneil Cruz, PIT 15) Pete Crow-Armstrong, CHC 16) Byron Buxton, MIN 17) Roman Anthony, BOS 18) George Springer, TOR 19) Seiya Suzuki, CHC 20) Brent Rooker, ATH 21) Jackson Merrill, SD 22) Jordan Walker, STL 23) Wyatt Langford, TEX 24) Jose Altuve, HOU 25) Taylor Ward, BAL 26) Ian Happ, CHC 27) Chase DeLauter, CLE Roto only 28) Michael Harris, ATL 29) Tyler Soderstrom, ATH 30) Riley Greene, DET 31) Andy Pages, LAD 32) Jarren Duran, BOS 33) Jo Adell, LAA 34) Brandon Nimmo, TEX 35) Chandler Simpson, TB 36) Ramon Laureano, SD 37) Teoscar Hernandez, LAD 38) Alec Burleson, STL 39) Wilyer Abreu, BOS 40) Ryan O'Hearn, PIT 41) Bryan Reynolds, PIT 42) Daulton Varsho, TOR 43) Kyle Stowers, MIA 44) Mickey Moniak, COL 45) Jakob Marsee, MIA 46) Jac Caglianone, KC

Designated hitter

H2H and Roto 1) Shohei Ohtani, LAD 2) Kyle Schwarber, PHI 3) Christian Yelich, MIL Roto only 4) Moises Ballesteros, CHC

Starting pitcher

H2H and Roto 1) Paul Skenes, PIT 2) Chris Sale, ATL 3) Garrett Crochet, BOS 4) Yoshinobu Yamamoto, LAD 5) Cristopher Sanchez, PHI 6) Max Fried, ATL 7) Bryan Woo, SEA 8) Logan Gilbert, SEA 9) Jacob deGrom, TEX 10) Cole Ragans, KC 11) Cameron Schlittler, NYY 12) Nolan McLean, NYM 13) Tyler Glasnow, LAD 14) Shohei Ohtani, LAD 15) Kevin Gausman, TOR 16) Joe Ryan, MIN 17) George Kirby, SEA 18) Dylan Cease, TOR 19) Jesus Luzardo, PHI 20) Freddy Peralta, NYM 21) Chase Burns, CIN 22) Shota Imanaga, CHC 23) Gavin Williams, CLE 24) Framber Valdez, DET 25) Logan Webb, SF 26) Hunter Brown, HOU 27) Kris Bubic, KC 28) Nick Lodolo, CIN 29) Jacob Misiorowski, MIL 30) Zack Wheeler, PHI 31) Eury Perez, MIA 32) Emmet Sheehan, LAD 33) Michael King, SD 34) Spencer Strider, ATL 35) Parker Messick, CLE 36) Braxton Ashcraft, PIT 37) Robbie Ray, SF 38) Kyle Bradish, BAL 39) Sandy Alcantara, MIA 40) Ranger Suarez, BOS 41) Trey Yesavage, TOR 42) Jose Soriano, LAA 43) Tarik Skubal, DET 44) Trevor Rogers, BAL 45) Brandon Woodruff, MIL 46) Drew Rasmussen, TB 47) Nathan Eovaldi, TEX 48) Blake Snell, LAD 49) Carlos Rodon, NYY 50) Gerrit Cole, NYY 51) Chase Dollander, COL 52) Ryan Weathers, NYY 53) Shane McClanahan, TB 54) Emerson Hancock, SEA

Relief pitcher

H2H and Roto 1) Mason Miller, SD 2) Cade Smith, CLE 3) Andres Munoz, SEA 4) Adolis Chapman, BOS 5) Jhoan Duran, PHI 6) Raisel Iglesias, ATL 7) Riley O'Brien, STL 8) Louie Varland, TOR 9) David Bednar, NYY 10) Daniel Palencia, CHC 11) Kenley Jansen, DET 12) Devin Williams, NYM 13) Ryan Helsley, BAL 14) Braxton Ashcraft, PIT 15) Payton Tolle, BOS 16) Bryan Baker, TB 17) Paul Sewald, ARI 18) Abner Uribe, MIL 19) Josh Hader, HOU Roto only 20) Seranthony Dominguez, CHW 21) Pete Fairbanks, MIA 22) Lucas Erceg, KC 23) Tanner Scott, LAD