Emmy Predictions: Lead Actor (Comedy) — Martin Short Eyes Historic Win at 76 for ‘Only Murders in the Building’

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series (Updated: April 9, 2026): Can Martin Short make Emmys history?

Nominated for 20 Emmys across more than four decades, including four consecutive lead comedy actor nominations for Hulu’s “Only Murders in the Building,” Martin Short could make history if he finally wins. At 76, he would become the oldest Lead Comedy Actor winner in Emmy history, surpassing Eugene Levy, who was 73 when he won for “Schitt’s Creek.” Short will also compete alongside his co-star Steve Martin, who is expected to be a viable contender.

And what about Yahya Abdul-Mateen II staging an Emmys comeback with Marvel’s “Wonder Man?” After winning supporting actor for the miniseries “Watchmen” in 2020, Abdul-Mateen’s superhero series has earned critical praise, and could be a populist choice for voters. Still, he faces stiff competition from high-profile performers and established series.

Meanwhile, Jason Segel is riding high following the Season 3 finale of “Shrinking,” potentially putting himself in contention for his first Emmy statue. In addition to the comedy field, there’s also recent Oscar nominee Ethan Hawke with FX’s “The Lowdown,” while Oscar winner Nicolas Cage hopes to web-sling into the race with Prime Video’s “Spider-Noir,” which premieres May 27 — only four days before the end of the eligibility period.

The Emmy Awards timeline begins with nomination-round voting from June 11-22, with nominations announced on July 8. The final voting runs from Aug. 17-26, leading into the Creative Arts Awards and Governors Gala on Sept. 5–6, culminating with the Emmy Awards ceremony on Sept. 14 on NBC.

Variety Awards Circuit: Emmys

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