Get caught up with Emerging Market's past performances, jockey, trainer and full analysis heading into the Run for the Roses
By Gene Menez Apr 28, 2026 at 11:37 am ET • 3 min read 
USATSI Only one horse has won the Kentucky Derby with just two previous starts: Leonatus in 1883. Since 1882, just two horses have won the Derby without having a start at age 2: Justify in 2018 and Mage in 2023. On Saturday, athletic but lightly raced Louisiana Derby winner Emerging Market will try to buck decades of history when he leaves the staring gate in the 2026 Kentucky Derby. Bet Emerging Market and the entire Kentucky Derby at TwinSpires, where new users who click through our links get a supersized $400 sign-up bonus:
15 Emerging Market (15-1)
- Trainer: Chad Brown
- Jockey: Flavien Prat
- Last race: First in the Louisiana Derby by a head
- Career record: 2 starts: 2 wins
- Career earnings: $618,880
- Best career Beyer Speed Figure: 97 (maiden special win)
- Sire: Candy Ride
Below, we'll dig further into Emerging Market as part of our series profiling all the horses competing in the 152nd Kentucky Derby on Saturday, May 2. We'll look back into his past performances, what questions need to be answered Saturday and analyze how the post draw affects his chances.
Now that you know who's in the field, you'll want to know how to bet the Kentucky Derby on the top horse racing betting apps. FanDuel Racing offers a $25 bonus with a $5 bet. Claim it here:
What to know about Emerging Market
Going through Emerging Market's past performances will be a short read. He has raced twice, winning both times.
That inexperience has proven to be difficult to overcome in the Kentucky Derby. Leonatus is the only winner, and since 1937 just six horses have even attempted it, with fifth place being the best finish.
That's not to say that Emerging Market isn't talented. Trainer Chad Brown has always thought highly of this son of Candy Ride and had been preparing him for a start at Saratoga last summer before some issues, including pneumonia, delayed the start of his racing career until February. When he finally got in the starting gate, he dazzled, showing tremendous acceleration when beating another highly regarded first-timer, Powershift, by ¾ of a length in Tampa. (Powershift finished 13½ lengths ahead of the third place finisher.) Emerging Market completed the race (at one mile and 40 yards) in 1:39.11, finishing just .97 seconds off the track record. The effort earned a big 97 Beyer Speed Figure.
With only one shot to earn qualifying points for the Kentucky Derby, Brown pointed the colt to the Louisiana Derby. In that race, Emerging Market pounced on a moderate pace to nip pacesetter Pavlovian, who entered the race with nine career starts, by a head. The speed figure for that race, however, fell to a 90.
Now, the question is whether Emerging Market has enough foundation to win the Run for the Roses. Brown is a notoriously conservative trainer who has bypassed the Kentucky Derby in the past with horses whom he felt weren't ready. So his bringing Emerging Market to Louisville is a strong endorsement even if Brown is winless with nine starters in his Kentucky Derby career.
Another strong endorsement also came from jockey Flavien Prat, who had the opportunity to ride Florida Derby winner Commandment but chose to take the mount on Emerging Market instead. (Note: Prat is one of Brown's go-to riders so too much shouldn't be made out of him jumping off Commandment, who is trained by Brad Cox.)
Emerging Market's speed figures across the board suggest that he will need to get faster to compete with the best of these, but with just two career starts, he has the upside to do so. He also has impressed trackside observers at Churchill Downs with his appearance in the mornings and turned in a bullet four-furlong work on April 18, which suggests that the two slugfests he won at Tampa and New Orleans have not taken much out of him.
Because of his inexperience, Emerging Market is not likely to be among the top five shortest prices at FanDuel Racing, TwinSpires and 1/ST BET, so believers in this lightly raced colt should get a price. Claim our jumbo-sized 1/ST BET offer here to get a $500 sign-up bonus:
Post draw analysis
With just two starts, Emerging Market would've been disadvantaged had he drawn on the inside, where he would've had to deal with traffic issues that he has never seen. But instead, he drew perfectly, in post No. 15. This outside spot will allow him to stay out of trouble. It does, however, put him at risk of losing ground. But jockey Flavien Prat is a master at getting his Kentucky Derby mounts good trips; he has finished in the top three six times in eight mounts. And Emerging Market has the athleticism to hit holes when necessary.
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