Duke vs. Siena odds, time March Madness predictions: 2026 NCAA Tournament picks from proven model

SportsLine's model simulated Siena Saints vs. Duke Blue Devils and revealed its college basketball picks for this NCAA Tournament 2026 first-round matchup on Thursday

The 16th-seeded Siena Saints face the top-seeded Duke Blue Devils in the first round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament East Region on Thursday. Siena is coming off a 64-54 win over Merrimack in the MAAC Tournament final on March 10, while Duke defeated Virginia 74-70 to win the ACC Tournament final on Saturday. The Saints (23-11), who have won four in a row, placed third in the MAAC regular-season standings with a 13-7 mark. The Blue Devils (32-2), who have won 11 straight, won the ACC regular-season title at 17-1 in league play. Duke will be without Caleb Foster (foot), while Patrick Ngongba II (foot) is questionable.

Tipoff from Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, S.C., is set for 2:50 p.m. ET. Duke leads the all-time series 1-0, earning a 92-74 win in 2015. Duke is a 27.5-point favorite in the latest Siena vs. Duke odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 135.5. Before making any Duke vs. Siena picks, check out the men's college basketball predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered the 2026 NCAA Tournament on a sizzling 11-1 run on its top-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season, and is on a 28-22 run on top-rated CBB side picks. Anyone following its college basketball betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen strong returns.

Now, the model has simulated Siena vs. Duke 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted men's college basketball picks and betting predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several men's college basketball odds and men's college basketball betting lines for Duke vs. Siena:

Siena vs. Duke spread:    

Duke -27.5

Siena vs. Duke over/under:    

135.5 points

Siena vs. Duke money line:    

Siena +5000, Duke -33333

Siena vs. Duke picks:    

Siena vs. Duke TV:

CBS

Top Siena vs. Duke predictions

After 10,000 simulations of Siena vs. Duke, SportsLine's model is going Over on the total (135.5 points). The Over hit in the 2015 meeting between the teams. The Over has also hit in two of the last three Duke games. Siena is 6-4 against the spread in its last 10 games. Duke, meanwhile, is 6-3 ATS in its last nine.

The model projects the Saints to have two players score 11.6 points or more, including Gavin Doty, who is projected to score 14.8 points. The Blue Devils are projected to have three players score 11.5 points or more, led by Cameron Boozer, who is projected to score 25.7 points. The model is projecting 145 combined points. 

How to make Duke vs. Siena picks

The model also says one side of the spread hits nearly 60% of the time. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Duke vs. Siena, and which side of the spread hits in nearly 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to back, all from the advanced model that has simulated this game 10,000 times, and find out.