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Democrats in a new poll have an 11-point lead over Republicans on a generic congressional ballot as the midterm fight for control of the House and Senate intensifies.
A national survey from Emerson College Polling found 53 percent of voters sided with the generic Democrat, up three points from last month, while 42 percent sided with the Republican, up two points from last month.
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted that women voters break for the Democratic candidate by a 27-point margin, “driving the Democrats’ significant lead on the ballot.” Men were more split, siding with the Democrat candidate by a 5-point margin.
The Emerson results indicate a wider edge for Democrats than some other findings.
Decision Desk HQ’s polling averages put Democrats at an advantage of roughly 4 points, with around 46 percent to the GOP’s 42 percent. That includes July polling from You Gov/The Economist, which found Democrats up 5 points in its latest survey, and from Morning Consult, which put Democrats up just 3 points — and it marks a slight tightening of the margin since last month.
Pollster Nate Silver’s averages show Democrats with a 6-point lead, putting the party at 48 percent to Republicans’ 42 percent.
Democrats are heading into this fall’s elections against the backdrop of the historic trend that the party out of power gains ground in midterm cycles — and the latest polls show they have a path to flipping either chamber. Party leaders are hoping their candidates can capitalize on Trump’s poor approval numbers and sway voters who are frustrated with the economy under Republican control on Capitol Hill.
But it’s set to be an uphill climb amid a midterm landscape complicated by mid-decade redistricting and unexpected shakeups in critical races.
Just over 100 days out from the election, DDHQ’s forecast suggests Democrats are narrowly favored to net the seats they need to flip the House, while the Senate leans slightly toward Republicans.
That data currently suggests Democrats could win a 224-211 advantage in the House, while Republicans narrowly retain power in a 50-50 Senate with Vice President Vance as the tiebreaker vote.
The Emerson survey was conducted July 19-20 among 1,100 likely U.S. voters and had a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error, of plus or minus 2.9 percent.
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