NOW PLAYING
Mainstream Democrats are fretting that progressive victories in two critical primary races in Michigan on Tuesday could jeopardize the party’s chances of clinching must-win congressional seats in November.
Abdul El-Sayed and Will Lawrence, who are both backed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) for their respective Senate and House primaries, are giving some center-left Democrats heartburn amid worries that their progressive leanings could turn off some of the swing state electorate.
“We’re going to lose races we wouldn’t lose otherwise,” said longtime Democratic operative Joe DiSano, pointing to the party’s chances in the 4th and 10th Congressional District too.
“Both Democrats would put these races away, and now they’re in danger because of El-Sayed at the top of the ticket, possibly,” he said.
But progressives argue that the party is misreading voters in the consequential state, as the larger battle over the direction of the party wages on this election cycle.
“I think the establishment’s been misjudging our politics for a very long time,” El-Sayed told The Hill last month. “We’re talking about people who don’t take the time to actually listen to voters but instead spend their time in D.C. talking to political elites.”
“I’ve spent my time talking to actual voters,” the former Wayne County health official added.
Michigan is the latest front in the fight over the direction of the Democratic Party as its far-left faction has notched key primary wins across the country this cycle, and mainstream Democrats worry that candidates like El-Sayed and Lawrence are riskier bets for competitive seats.
El-Sayed is duking it out against centrist Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) for the Democratic nod for Sen. Gary Peters’s seat in November. The House Democrat has notched support from Peters as well as Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.).
Meanwhile, Lawrence, the co-founder of the Sunrise Movement, is running against a pair of moderates — former Ukraine Ambassador Bridget Brink and former U.S. Navy SEAL Matt Maasdam — in the Democratic contest to take on battleground Rep. Tom Barrett (R-Mich.) in the 7th Congressional District. Brink is backed by former Gov. Jennifer Granholm (D) while Maasdam is supported by Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D)
Some Democrats said they believe elevating El-Sayed and Lawrence could make winning the seats more difficult.
“I think it is going to potentially be more challenging,” said state Rep. Joe Tate (D), a former Michigan House Speaker who ran for Senate this cycle before later dropping out and endorsing Stevens, noting “there still is a path” to victory.
Richard Czuba, founder of the polling Glengariff Group, suggested that this roadmap to success depends on the vote margin Tuesday. For example, if El-Sayed narrowly wins Tuesday, the former 2018 gubernatorial candidate will enter “a very close race” against Rogers given his “softness” with independent voters, Czuba said.
However, El-Sayed would become “the clear favorite” if he beats Stevens by double digits, Czuba added.
“Any softness he had with independents would be swamped by the new people he’s bringing into the process,” Czuba added, “And I think he would be a clear favorite under that scenario to win in November in Michigan.”
This race along with Lawrence’s contest in the Lansing-area House district will prove decisive in determining the Senate and House majorities in November. The Michigan Senate seat is one of Republicans’ best pickup opportunities this cycle while Democrats see Barrett, who represents a district President Trump won by just over 1 percentage point in 2024, as a top target.
“I think whoever comes out and comes into these generals, they’re going to have to work hard, no matter what,” Tate, who endorsed Brink over Lawrence, continued, adding that the Democratic Senate nominee is “going to play a major role” in down-ballot races this fall.
Stevens has made electability a central part of her pitch to voters, arguing she’s better equipped to take on the GOP’s presumptive Senate nominee, former Rep. Mike Rogers.
“I’m the only one on this stage who has flipped a Republican seat, and I was named Michigan’s most effective Democratic lawmaker in Congress because my only focus is you,” Stevens said during a Michigan Senate debate earlier this week. “Abdul is running for celebrity. Republicans are propping up his campaign.”
And some recent polling conducted by Glengariff Group suggests this argument could ring true.
A recent Michigan Education Survey showed El-Sayed losing to Rogers in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup by 10 points. Stevens and Rogers were statistically tied in the same survey.
Greg Bowens, who worked on Democrat Hill Harper’s unsuccessful Senate campaign against Slotkin, said he believes the Democratic establishment will ultimately throw its support behind El-Sayed if he wins regardless of policy disagreements.
“All that money that’s being poured into the Senate race is not going to turn off because El-Sayed wins,” Bowens said.
Bowens acknowledged, however, that El-Sayed could face some distinct hurdles in November, particularly over some lingering resentment among some Democrats over the 2024 “uncommitted” movement, which El-Sayed supported.
El-Sayed backed efforts to vote “uncommitted” against former President Biden in the 2024 primary over his administration’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war. El-Sayed later endorsed former Vice President Harris, who replaced Biden on the ticket that summer.
But Bowens suggested some Black Democratic voters are still frustrated by the “uncommitted” movement, which they felt squandered the party’s chances of electing the first Black woman as president.
Yet, Michigan state Sen. Stephanie Chang (D), who his backing El-Sayed, argued his campaign and progressive policy platform could attract key voting blocs, including disillusioned male voters and voters who stayed home in 2024.
In Lansing, Lawrence is projecting confidence as his competitors squabble to own the middle lane. The House Democrats’ campaign arm has notably stayed out of the primary.
Maasdam this week suggested Brink was a “spoiler” candidate in the primary given the their similar backgrounds and center-left leanings.
Emma Grundhauser, Maasdam’s campaign manager, argued in a statement to The Hill that “deceptive ads” funded by Barrett’s “MAGA allies” against Maasdam and “boosting” Lawrence points to the GOP’s appetite to take on the latter in the general election.
“Matt is the Democrat most likely to defeat Barrett in November,” Grundhauser added.
Brink’s supporters, meanwhile, have pushed back, arguing Maasdam’s campaign is “tearing down” the former ambassador amid her lead in the polls.
“He should take some responsibility for his own actions before telling a qualified woman to drop out,” EMILY’s List President Jessica Mackler, whose group endorsed Brink, said on the social media platform X in response to Maadam suggesting Brink should think about stepping aside.
The thinking is that Brink and Maasdam are splitting the same vote base, offering Lawrence an opening to win the Democratic nod for to take on Barrett. Lawrence, however, has brushed off any concerns about his viability in the swing district.
“This is something people in D.C. are worried about.” he told The Hill, adding that voters in his district are “tired of the status quo” and “tired of corporate-funded” candidates.
Add as preferred source on Google Tags Bernie Sanders Chuck Schumer Gretchen Whitmer Haley StevensCopyright 2026 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Comments: Link copiedMore Campaign News
See All
Campaign Talarico leads Paxton by 3 points in Texas Senate race: Fox News poll by Finya Swai 4 hours ago Campaign / 4 hours ago 
