Democrats, bullish on midterms, worry they’ll trip over their own feet

Campaign Democrats, bullish on midterms, worry they’ll trip over their own feet Comments: by Amie Parnes - 08/01/26 12:00 PM ET Comments: Link copied by Amie Parnes - 08/01/26 12:00 PM ET Comments: Link copied

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Democrats are feeling bullish about their chances of winning the House and Senate majorities as they head into August, despite conflicts within the party over its direction.

President Trump’s dismal poll numbers are feeding confidence that Democrats can win back the House and possibly the Senate, even as the party worries members could be making their political lives more difficult with primary wins by several far left candidates.

The party finds itself in the middle of a civil war between establishment figures and democratic socialists, a battle that is playing out in the Michigan Senate race.

Progressive candidate Abdul El-Sayed, who is not a democratic socialist, is competing with the more centrist Rep. Haley Stevens. Polls show El-Sayed with a lead, but they also suggest he could be an easier candidate for the GOP to defeat in the fall.

Still, in the bigger picture, Democrats are feeling good not only about the midterms, but about their chances of regaining the White House in 2028 given Trump’s numbers, which they believe have fallen in large part because of errors of the president’s making — most notably the launching of the Iran war and overall economic instability.

“There’s optimism, but a little concern around making sure that Democrats have the right candidates and a strong message, and I think this is important because there’s this realization that it can’t all be anti-Trump,” Democratic strategist Basil Smikle said.

Susan Del Percio, the Republican strategist who does not support Trump or the MAGA movement, put it this way: “Democrats have wind behind their backs no doubt, but if they don’t have a sail it’s not worth anything.”

Recent polls on Trump have shown the dissatisfaction from voters. An AP-NORC poll released Thursday showed the president with a 33 percent approval rating, 8 points lower than where it was at this point in his first term.

Nate Silver, the political analyst who tracks polls, said Trump has a 38.2 percent approval rating and a 58.8 percent disapproval rating, showing a record low for the president.

The president and Republicans are also facing backlash on the war in Iran with a Reuters/Ipsos poll released this past week showing that only one-third of Americans support the war while 59 percent are against it.

Inflation is also on the rise and gas prices surged in recent weeks as fighting between the U.S. and Iran intensified and showed signs of widening the war.

Still, Smikle added that while concerns about the administration’s actions have brought down Trump’s poll numbers, “that doesn’t automatically mean that Republicans are going to vote for Democrats.”

Democratic strategist Brad Bannon described his party’s current status as “good not great.”

“We’re ready to take the House but to secure a big House majority and a narrow Senate control, Democrats must go the extra mile to convince people disappointed with Trump that my party can repair the damage he’s done. We’re still not there yet but we still have some time,” Bannon said.

At the same time, another Democratic strategist predicted that Democrats would win the House and possibly the Senate.

“Typically, I’d say, bet on it, with a president who isn’t doing well and an endless war. But leave it to us to f‑‑‑ things up. We’ll find a way. We always do,” the strategist said.

This source and others said their main reason for optimism is because the midterms will be a referendum on Trump’s actions — and not so much because their side has made major improvements. “I think voters are fed up. But it isn’t that they’re in love with us. It’s that we’re the other option.”

Further exacerbating the problem, the strategist said, is the infighting happening within the party.

Last week, Megan Romer, the co-chair of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), in an appearance on Fox News highlighted the group’s proposals including granting amnesty to anyone in the U.S., abolishing the Senate and, in the long term, abolishing prisons.

The comments generated a rash of headlines for several days, and moderate Democrats were incensed.

“We — as in all Democrats — now are going to be asked if we’re trying to abolish the Senate,” one Democratic donor said. “It’s crazy, and it’s why we could lose. That’s a huge problem.”

Del Percio said the bigger problem for Democrats “is that they have all of their issues playing out in the news media and on cable TV.”

“And the DSA isn’t trying to create their own lane. They’re trying to infiltrate, and they’re very upfront about it,” Del Percio said.

Del Percio said this is the wrong time for these internal disputes.

“I can’t believe we’re in August and this is where the Democrats are,” she said. “They’re still having these internal battles. By August, you should be aligned.

“But they just keep putting a hot poker in their eye,” she said.

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