Again, I am not planning to address every start for Pittsburgh Pirates star right-hander Paul Skenes in this space as the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner takes the mound for a series finale tonight against the visiting Chicago Cubs. Skenes pitches not as the Cy Young favorite for the first time this season and trying to avoid the first three-game skid of his already impressive career. It's a 6:40 ET first pitch from PNC Park (regular-season game No. 2,000 was played there Wednesday) on a light MLB schedule.
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MLB is a weird game and can humble even the best players quickly. To open May, Skenes (6-4, 3.00 ERA) had back-to-back wins where he threw eight shutout innings with just two hits allowed in each, with no walks and 17 combined strikeouts. However, Skenes allowed five earned over five on May 17 in a loss to Philadelphia, and then last Saturday in Toronto was nicked for four runs and a career-high nine hits over five innings in personally losing back-to-back starts for the second time in his pro career.
It's the first time in Skenes' career that he has allowed three or more earned runs in consecutive starts. Saturday was only the fifth time he completed five-plus innings with fewer than five strikeouts in his MLB career.
"There was good and bad," Skenes said of his outing in Toronto. "[I] need to get ahead in counts. I wasn't super unhappy with some of the execution on some of the pitches, but could have executed a number of them better. I think in every start, there's a little bit of that cat-and-mouse game. At the end of the day, just got to get ahead of guys."
That outing dropped him from as low as a +190 favorite to repeat as NL Cy Young winner to currently a +450 third favorite behind Philadelphia's Cristopher Sanchez (moved from +200 to +145 with Wednesday's win) and Milwaukee's Jacob Misiorowski (+340).
The only other time Skenes dropped back-to-back starts personally was in early May 2025, when he lost at home to the Cubs and then in St. Louis but pitched pretty well in both. The next time out, he threw six strong innings in a no-decision at the Mets to avoid three straight losses himself. The Pirates lost that game and then the next Skenes start in Philadelphia, the lone time they have dropped at least three of his outings in a row.
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Again, the sky isn't falling as Skenes still leads the majors with a WHIP of 0.82, which would be the best in a full season by a starter since Justin Verlander in 2019. But Skenes is allowing 0.90 home runs per nine innings, which is quite a bit higher than the 0.59 career number he had entering 2026. Four of his six homers allowed have come off fastballs as Skenes is throwing 20% more fastballs up in the zone compared to 2025. The former No. 1 overall pick throws the fastball 36% of the time, the most of any pitch.
Skenes hasn't faced the Cubs this year and is 2-2 with a 2.94 ERA in seven career starts against them, tied for his most outings vs. any club. The SportsLine Projection Model forecasts Skenes for 5.5 innings, 6.2 strikeouts, 4.3 hits allowed and 1.7 earned runs. He is +130 at DK to win personally and set at Over/Under 17.5 outs recorded and 6.5 strikeouts.
I don't even know what to say about my Cubbies, who have two 10-game winning streaks this season and had a 10-game losing streak snapped Wednesday in a 10-4 win over the Bucs. Chicago is just the second team in MLB history to have two 10-game winning streaks and a 10-game losing streak in the same season, along with the 2017 Dodgers.
The offense had not been hitting whatsoever, especially with runners in scoring position, but maybe it woke up last night. Ian Happ hit a tiebreaking three-run home run and had five RBI in his hometown and has reached base in each of his last 40 games in Pittsburgh.
Righty Colin Rea (4-3, 4.83 ERA) takes the mound for Chicago tonight, and the 35-year-old is simply an innings-eater. The Cubs have lost his past three, although Rea had a quality start last time out vs. Houston. He has really struggled on the road with a 6.75 ERA and .279 opponents' batting average in 26.2 away innings.
Rea was good vs. Pittsburgh in 2025 at 1-0 with a 2.65 ERA over three starts spanning 17.0 innings as the Bucs hit only .183. But I'll be looking at Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 total bases as Reynolds is 8-for-19 career off Rea with two double and two homers, good for a 1.292 OPS.
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We hit a parlay on the other Pennsylvania MLB team and its ace in Sanchez on Wednesday and will go right back to that well tonight. I have no faith in Rea and expect a very motivated Skenes. Winds are blowing out but not too bad at PNC Park, and it's not very hot in Pittsburgh. The model has 9.2 runs scored. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.
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