Comparing Ty Simpson to Fernando Mendoza convinced me he'll be drafted higher than people think

Simpson isn't a better prospect than Mendoza, but the Alabama QB is in a similar tier from a traits standpoint

While there's no real debate for the No. 1 overall pick, I wanted to stack up the top two quarterbacks in the 2026 NFL Draft class to see just how far off Alabama's Ty Simpson is as a prospect compared to Indiana's Fernando Mendoza. Through 12 weeks of the college football season, the two were neck and neck from a production standpoint before Simpson faltered down the stretch and Mendoza shined en route to a College Football Playoff National Championship.

Is Simpson a product of the draft quarterback hype machine or a viable franchise quarterback prospect? Let's see what the tape says about the respective traits for each.

Arm Strength

• Mendoza: 7
• Simpson: 8

Mendoza and Simpson have what I'd describe as solid NFL arms. Simpson can put a few more RPMs on the ball -- especially on the move -- but both have more than enough to expand the field in the NFL. 

Simpson hit deeper areas of the field more consistently with 15 attempts of 40-plus yards last year compared to nine for Mendoza. Simpson's farthest throw, which came against South Carolina, traveled nearly 70 yards from release to endpoint, while Mendoza's was just under 65.

If you stacked up their arm strength across NFL starters, they'd likely end up somewhere in the teens. That's perfectly fine for a franchise quarterback.

Ty Simpson with two DIMES on back-to-back plays pic.twitter.com/gaQ5ok2QeS

— NFL Draft Files (@NFL_DF) November 9, 2025

Accuracy

• Mendoza: 7
• Simpson: 7

Comparing the completion percentages between the two, there's no comparison (71.5% for Mendoza vs. 64.6% for Simpson), but some context is needed. Simpson's receivers dropped 24 more passes this season (8.9% drop rate vs. 2.2% for Mendoza). Mendoza also benefited from an RPO-heavier offense, with 28.2% of his completions coming on RPOs compared to 10.1% for Simpson.

If you remove screens and RPOs and add back in drops, Simpson's completion percentage was actually slightly higher than Mendoza's (67.61% vs. 67.56%), even with his injury-plagued finish to the season.

This isn't a trump card for either side. Mendoza struggles more with distance on pure vertical throws, while Simpson misses too many layups underneath. Both, however, show weekly flashes of threading the needle that inspire confidence in their ability to attack NFL windows.

Play Under Pressure

• Mendoza: 10
• Simpson: 5

This is Mendoza's superpower. His mechanics don't change from clean pockets to tight ones. His interceptions on an underthrown crosser against Oregon and an overthrown dig against Iowa were his only truly poor decisions under pressure last season, and both could have ended as incompletions if his receivers had played them differently.

On the flip side, 46 of his 132 pressured dropbacks turned into first downs (34.8%) compared to 46 of 164 for Simpson (27.4%). I'd argue Mendoza is the best prospect I've seen in this area since Joe Burrow at LSU.

Simpson, on the other hand, often shows his inexperience under pressure. He speeds up when defenders close in more than you'd like and has some brutal fumbles on tape from refusing to let plays die. The encouraging part: he still delivers downfield strikes after evading pressure and doesn't drop his eyes. That makes me believe his current level can improve with more reps.

NFL Draft's top five storylines to watch: Ty Simpson, trades and first-round surprises Jordan Dajani

Pocket Movement

• Mendoza: 7
• Simpson: 9

This is Simpson's superpower. His foot quickness in the pocket is elite for a college prospect. His lower half reminds me a bit of a younger Aaron Rodgers -- he consistently gets to his throwing base, finds escape lanes and evades defenders in tight spaces. Let me know if you see it on the first rep below:

Wrote an article comparing Ty Simpson to Fernando Mendoza Came away more convinced Ty Simpson is going higher than people think pic.twitter.com/4fGmCrkk6j

— Mike Renner (@mikerenner_) April 1, 2026

It's easily his biggest selling point from a developmental standpoint.

Mendoza is no slouch here either. He navigates collapsing pockets well, but he's heavier-footed than Simpson and doesn't show the same evasiveness.

Processing Speed

• Mendoza: 9
• Simpson: 9

Mendoza's mastery of X's and O's shows up every week. He averaged a quick 2.6-second time to throw for his career because he consistently diagnoses coverages and knows where to go with the ball. His anticipation is also exactly where it needs to be for the NFL.

Checking back on Ty Simpson vs. LSU. A commonality on his tape: Rapid discernment and situational awareness. 3rd & 6. First read is the slot seam. Could he try it? Maybe, but he likes the risk-to-reward ratio better with the checkdown. Quick dish and a drive-sustaining first. pic.twitter.com/YI8QDCtN7C

— Ian Cummings (@IC_Draft) November 10, 2025

While Simpson lacks Mendoza's track record, this is another strong trait in his profile. He plays on time and routinely gets to second or third reads while still releasing the ball on the receiver's break. That's special stuff for a first-year starter.

Ty Simpson (6'1 211) Alabama + Keeps his eyes downfield when maneuvering in or escaping outside the pocket + Son of a longtime college coach + Former 5-star prospect + Throwing on the move + Great anticipatory thrower + Command of the offense + Intermediate accuracy + Processing… pic.twitter.com/yazEa08h3p

— Bengals & Brews (@BengalsBrews) March 31, 2026

Decision Making

• Mendoza: 9
• Simpson: 7

Mendoza threw just 12 interceptions over the past two seasons on 901 dropbacks. He protects the football at a high level while diagnosing defenses with ease. I also love his feel for attacking tight windows, which will only become more valuable in the NFL. There are very few holes to poke here.

Fernando Mendoza's super power? The Back Shoulder connection. No one is truly covered when you can place the ball perfectly. Opposite hash, on the goalline, from the slot, on a wheel, or up the seam. Any vertical can be open at any time. Special. pic.twitter.com/UfRSwnoWOb

— JetPack Galileo (@JetPackGalileo) January 7, 2026

Simpson isn't far off as a pure passer. He throws receivers open, layers passes into zones and generally takes smart downfield shots. His biggest issues come with bad sacks and fumbles. He needs to throw more balls away at the next level -- both to protect the football and himself.

Frame

• Mendoza: 9
• Simpson: 3

At 6-foot-5 and 236 pounds, Mendoza fits the prototype. Despite playing behind Cal's offensive line from 2023 to 2024 and taking plenty of hits, he missed just one play as a starter.

The same can't be said for Simpson (6-1, 211). Injuries piled up as the season progressed -- lower back issues, gastritis, elbow bursitis and eventually a cracked rib that knocked him out of a playoff loss to Indiana. His play dipped as a result, averaging 5.7 yards per attempt over the final five games. This is easily his biggest concern projecting to the NFL.

Mobility

• Mendoza: 5
• Simpson: 7

Even without 40 times, the two likely have similar straight-line speed. The difference shows up in agility and change of direction, where Simpson stands out on tape. Neither is a major threat in the designed run game, but both can exploit open lanes to pick up first downs.

Overall

• Mendoza: 63
• Simpson: 55

So how wide is the gap? Sizable in some areas, tighter in others. Mendoza offers a higher floor based on what we've seen on tape, particularly because of his frame and lower injury risk. Otherwise, they operate in a similar tier from a tools standpoint.

Factor in Simpson's inexperience, and it's hard to say definitively that Mendoza will have the better pro career. There's enough on Simpson's tape to believe he can thrive with more seasoning. Because of that, I fully expect him to be a first-round pick come April 23.