College football win totals: Mizzou's offense holds key for Tigers to be a factor in SEC, CFP conversation

Here's a look at how to bet on Missouri's win total for the 2026 college football season

Preparation for the 2026 college football season has already begun with several prominent programs showcasing their top players in spring games. One program which will not be hosting a spring game is Missouri, due to renovations at Memorial Stadium. These are expected to be completed in time for the 2026 season opener, and the big question is whether the Tigers can continue the momentum from their last three seasons as the schedule gets tougher and roster continuity gets challenged.

This may come as a surprise to many fans, but Mizzou has won 29 games over the last three seasons if you include bowl game wins, which is fifth among all SEC programs in that timeframe. Thanks to major NIL investments, head coach Eli Drinkwitz's recruiting efforts and strong support from the fan base, the Tigers have established themselves as a program capable of winning at the highest levels. They've become a premier attraction for Missouri sports betting as the state's lone high-profile college football program.

We'll look at Mizzou's win total and other futures prop bets for the 2026 season and dive into how those interested in college football betting and futures betting should approach the Tigers.

Mizzou football futures odds (via FanDuel)

• Regular season win total: 6.5 (Over -140, Under +114)
• To win SEC: +3000
• To make the College Football Playoff: Yes +500, No -800
• To win national title: +7500

Missouri has won at least six games in each of its last five regular seasons under Drinkwitz, and it went 5-5 in the 2020 season with four games being canceled. It has at least eight wins in each of the last three seasons. The Tigers have been unlucky when it comes to the playoff, missing out on the four-team event in 2023 after going 10-2. They followed that up with a 9-3 campaign in 2024 despite an injury to starting quarterback Brady Cook and some key personnel losses on defense. Mizzou went 8-4 in the 2025 regular season, but was 5-0 and carried a top-15 ranking into its home showdown against Alabama. An injury to quarterback Beau Pribula in the Vanderbilt game effectively ended Missouri's slim playoff hopes. The Tigers are not necessarily considered CFP contenders in 2026, but there's some potential with another high-profile transfer at quarterback.

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Will the passing offense gel in time for SEC play?

If you're a Mizzou fan, you know optimism and skepticism go hand in hand. The Tigers head into this season with a lot of potential offensively but there's also a lot of question marks. The biggest one is former Ole Miss quarterback Austin Simmons, who comes to Columbia after losing his job to Trinidad Chambliss a year ago. It's worth noting Simmons did beat out Chambliss initially for Lane Kiffin's Rebels, but an injury and the latter's strong play meant Simmons' time in Oxford was likely over. He has more playing experience than Pribula did coming into 2025, and those snaps came against SEC competition. The production doesn't jump off the page though, so there might be some growing pains.

The good news is the Tigers were able to bring back both Ahmad Hardy and Jamal Roberts in the offseason. The duo spearheaded a Missouri rushing attack which ranked eighth in the country in yards per game. Hardy rushed for 1,649 yards and 16 touchdowns while averaging 6.4 yards per carry, and Roberts wasn't too shabby at 753 yards on 6.1 yards per carry with six scores. If you're looking to ease your new quarterback into the offense, it's nice to have a good ground game to lean on.

Simmons gets some familiarity with wide receiver Cayden Lee joining him from Ole Miss. Lee was the fourth option in Ole Miss' offense, which also got the tight end involved. He's likely going to be the second option for Mizzou behind sophomore Donovan Olugbode, who looks to build on a strong freshman season. The Tigers also have a speed threat in Caleb Goodie (18.4 yards per catch over last two seasons) and perhaps tight end Brett Norfleet can get more involved. One of my biggest frustrations last season with Mizzou's offense was the lack of targets for the tight end, who is a matchup nightmare and can make plays in space. Perhaps Simmons looks Norfleet's way more early in the season as a safety net, and Drinkwitz can open up the playbook more for the tight end.

Can the Tigers get to opposing quarterbacks?

On the other side of the ball, the biggest question for Missouri is the pass rush. Zion Young and Chris McClellan are going to the NFL, and Damon Wilson II transferred to Miami. That's 21.5 of Mizzou's 36 sacks from 2025 gone, and there are no obvious replacement candidates. Darris Smith, who had four sacks a season ago, will need to emerge for the Tigers to put pressure on opposing quarterbacks.

The defense held its own for most of the 2025 season, ranking just outside the top-10 against both the run and the pass. The Tigers ranked 17th in scoring defense, often giving up several big plays early in games before settling in a bit. There are plenty of incoming transfers on this side of the ball, especially in the secondary. If the Tigers can limit explosive plays and find a consistent pass rush, they should be able to lean more into their stellar run game and put Simmons in more favorable, low-pressure situations.

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SP+ and home-field advantage

If you're into advanced metrics, ESPN's Bill Connelly (a fellow True Son) has developed a ranking called SP+ for every college football team. It takes returning production, recent history, recruiting and transfers, and coaching changes. Connelly has Missouri ranked 20th in his initial SP+ ranking for 2026. The Tigers are 24th in offensive SP+ and 15th in defensive SP+. That's a little better than where I'd expect this team to be with so many unknowns on both sides of the ball.

The bigger problem for Missouri is the schedule, which is substantially tougher than the last three seasons. The Tigers get Ole Miss, Georgia, Texas, Texas A&M and Oklahoma. Florida is also on the slate, which means six of Mizzou's opponents are better than them in the initial SP+ ranking. This won't mean much if Simmons clicks with his receivers and the Tigers' defensive changes work, but it does mean wins will be harder to come by.

Under Drinkwitz, the Tigers have gone 33-9 at home and 10-17 on the road. That's not an unusual split as most teams tend to win more games at home. Three of Mizzou's six opponents who rate above them in SP+ are coming to Memorial Stadium. The bigger concern for fans will be Drinkwitz's record against opponents who are in the top 10 in SP+. Though these stats are tracked for the final SP+ ranking as opposed to a preseason one, it serves as a good barometer when betting on win totals. Drinkwitz is 1-12 against teams that finished the season in the top 10 in SP+ according to Rock M Nation, which is concerning given that the Tigers play three teams in the initial SP+ top 10 (Georgia, Texas, Texas A&M) and one just outside it (Oklahoma).

Looking for wins on the schedule

The Tigers should be 4-0 heading into their homecoming game against Florida. Playing Kansas on the road in a rivalry game will be a solid early test, but the Jayhawks allowed Hardy and Roberts to run for 255 yards and two touchdowns in last year's Border War. I don't believe they've magically found a formula to slow them down in 2026. Mississippi State has improved under Jeff Lebby but I'd still take Mizzou in that road game.

The Gators will have a lot of talent on paper, but that's always been the case. The question is whether new head coach Jon Sumrall can translate that talent into wins, something Billy Napier was unable to do. If you're backing the Over on Missouri's win total at 6.5, this is probably the swing game. If the Tigers beat the Gators at home on homecoming, they'll be 5-0 with the potential sixth and seventh wins coming against Arkansas and Kentucky. Mizzou has won four straight against Arkansas, and the Tigers should be able to top Kentucky at home. If the Tigers fall to the Gators, they'll need to spring an upset against Texas or Oklahoma to get to the seventh win assuming they take down Arkansas and Kentucky.

When it comes to any College Football Playoff talk, the swing game for me is the road trip to Ole Miss. I had the opportunity to go to Oxford in 2013, when the Tigers beat the Rebels 24-10 en route to an SEC East division title and a spot in the SEC championship game. Simmons will play his old program and while familiarity goes both ways, Kiffin is no longer in charge. If Mizzou takes down Ole Miss on the road, there's a path to the playoff.

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Win total pick

The offense is key for Missouri. If Simmons can connect with his receivers consistently in key situations while leaning on the run game, the Tigers should be able to hold their own against Georgia, Texas A&M, Texas, Ole Miss and Oklahoma. That puts 10 wins and a potential CFP berth on the table. 

If Simmons is unable to build on his potential from the previous two seasons and the unproven receivers don't step up in bigger roles, opposing defenses will be able to key in on the running backs and shut down Missouri's offense. The Tigers are likely looking at a season with four wins in this scenario.

I see the Tigers entering their home game against Texas A&M with a 5-0 record, similar to where they were in 2025 against Alabama. I don't see Mizzou upsetting the Aggies, and I don't see Simmons getting a nice revenge narrative against Ole Miss the following week. Georgia would be a third loss and take any SEC title game and CFP hopes away. However, I do think the Tigers spring an upset at home against Texas and conclude the season with a victory over Oklahoma to get to nine wins, hitting the Over on 6.5.