A shocking gambling scandal forces a manual override of our analytics model, dropping Texas Tech out of the top 10 as the Longhorns claim the No. 1 spot
By Brandon Marcello Apr 29, 2026 at 10:00 am ET • 11 min read 
Keytron Jordan, CBS Sports Texas Tech is the top story in college football ... but not for the reasons the Red Raiders had hoped. The vibes in Lubbock shifted from dark horse national title contender to dark clouds after a gambling scandal likely cost Texas Tech its star quarterback.
Losing Brendan Sorsby, one of the most productive signal-callers in the conference, a player who looked like the difference-maker for Tech after his success at Cincinnati, is the kind of development that makes a reporter reach for the Tylenol and makes a fan base lose sleep.
The news dropped just as I was finalizing my post-spring top 25, leading to a shakeup on my list. Interestingly, the analytics model I built this offseason to power my rankings remained steadfast as a cold-blooded machine. Its weighted formula is designed to strip away the hype, but when I plugged in the post-spring data, the computer didn't flinch with Tech. Because of the massive scoring gap between the top seven teams and No. 8 in the model, the math kept Texas Tech at No. 7 despite me introducing a few formula tweaks contextualizing the loss of Sorsby's production.
I, however, have a pulse.
What Brendan Sorsby's potential absence could mean for Big 12 race: BYU, Utah rise up to challenge Texas Tech Brad Crawford
While information is context and context is king, common sense is the palace guard. In my published top 25 today, I applied a human override by manually dropping the Red Raiders four spots from where the formula says they belong. A team doesn't lose a talent like Sorsby and expect to maintain a top-10 pace in this chaotic era, especially with backup Will Hammond likely to miss the beginning of the season. Tech has a favorable schedule featuring three of its toughest games at home, but will it look the part of a top-eight team without its multi-million-dollar QB? Probably not.
Spring ball is in the rearview mirror, and the waters are getting rough for some and calmer for others ahead of a crucial summer. Let's dive into the post-spring top 25.
1. Texas
Arch Manning. Cam Coleman. Hollywood Smothers. Texas' offense is loaded with superstars. But will Steve Sarkisian dial up some plays down the field? He seems more open to that these days after the dink-and-dunk era under Quinn Ewers. The defense is loaded, too, and veteran play-caller Will Muschamp's arrival only bolsters hopes that the Longhorns will be a more consistent bunch. Week 2 against Ohio State promises to be electric.
2. Ohio State
The Buckeyes will be among the more potent offenses in the country with a load of talent returning, including QB Julian Sayin and all-everything receiver Jeremiah Smith. Questions abound with the defense, which must replace eight starters for the second straight season. Matt Patricia worked wonders in his first season calling defensive plays. Can he do it again? If so, the Buckeyes will win the Big Ten -- and possibly the national championship.
3. Oregon
Might Oregon be the most physical team in the country? The Ducks' defense was dominant throughout the spring, ending the session with nine sacks at their annual spring game. Depth is everywhere. Former five-star Dylan Raiola will be a backup to Dante Moore at quarterback. The feeling here is that this might be Dan Lanning's best team yet.
4. Georgia
Georgia has everything it needs to win yet another SEC title. But will the Bulldogs' pass rush return to their elite form of two or three years ago? Kirby Smart's defensive line had its worst season yet in getting to the quarterback in 2025. That needs to improve for the Bulldogs to advance beyond the second round of the CFP. Auburn transfer Amaris Williams suffered a knee injury in the spring, dampening hopes of that pass rush improving.
5. Notre Dame
We'll talk all summer about Notre Dame's "easy" schedule. Critics will poke holes in the Irish's championship plans, fueled mostly by the PR hit they received for whining about their exclusion from the CFP and opting out of a bowl game in December. But don't let that cloud the true evaluation of the team's talent and a top-5 coaching staff.
6. Indiana
Indiana ruled the sport last fall, running through the schedule with blowout after blowout before beating Miami for the school's first national title. Now we see if Curt Cignetti can implement a plug-and-play philosophy with similar results. The "Moneyball" numbers certainly back up the belief that TCU quarterback transfer Josh Hoover is capable of putting up big numbers after Fernando Mendoza's generational run last season. Our big question: Will the new offensive line gel enough for another Big Ten championship run?
7. Miami
Duke quarterback transfer Darian Mensah flashed -- as expected -- in the spring and threw three touchdowns in the Hurricanes' spring game. The ACC's best quarterback will be counted on to do more than Carson Beck, who he replaces. It all starts in the trenches for Mario Cristobal, who pieced together an incredible group on both sides of the ball during last season's run to the national championship game. The offensive line needs to be rebuilt, and we'll keep a close eye on developments as pre-season camp begins in August.
8. Texas A&M
Texas A&M had a terrific offseason in the NFL Draft, which is good and bad news after an 11-win season and CFP appearance. The Aggies' returning production is near the bottom of the SEC, but a slew of transfers, led by former Alabama receiver Isaiah Horton, has them primed for another run in the top half of the SEC. Quarterback Marcel Reed returns, which is a big boost as they break in new pieces. The best news out of the spring? The defense looked elite. Northwestern transfer Anto Saka led a pass rush that was described as unblockable. Senior linebacker and captain Daymion Sanford, the designated signal man on the field, was injured in the spring game (leg) and is expected to miss at least a portion of the season.
9. LSU
Lane Kiffin might be trying to temper fan expectations in Year 1, but we're not. The offensive line has come together quickly, and pass protection appears solid. Keeping defensive coordinator Blake Baker on staff was a huge win, and we're expecting a big jump. When Arizona State quarterback transfer Sam Leavitt returns from injury in August, we'll get a better read on how potent Kiffin's always-explosive offense will really be this fall, but the pieces are clearly already in place with a load of elite transfers, including many from his run at Ole Miss.
10. Oklahoma
The dark horse in the SEC. The Sooners seemed primed to make a big jump this fall after getting back into the CFP last season. The offense was a mess when QB John Mateer played most of the season with an injured hand; he didn't get much help from the running backs, either, leading to a No. 12 ranking in scoring in the SEC. A second season with coordinator Ben Arbuckle should result in a noticeable jump in production for the unit, particularly with Mateer correcting his throwing mechanics. The defense should be elite again, too, with a senior like Peyton Bowen returning.
John Mateer returns to lead the Oklahoma offense in the 2026 season. Getty Images 
11. Texas Tech
Texas Tech is the story of the offseason -- and for all the wrong reasons. Many don't expect Brendan Sorsby to be back on campus after he admitted his gambling addiction to Texas Tech officials. The NCAA is unlikely to approve his eligibility. That leaves the otherwise-loaded Red Raiders in a major lurch. Backup QB Will Hammond is not expected to be ready for the season (knee), leaving Joey McGuire with his third option. The good news amid this unforeseen mess? The schedule is so favorable that the Red Raiders will likely remain the favorite to win the Big 12 when preseason camp begins.
12. USC
It's difficult to believe, but Lincoln Riley heads into Year 5 at USC without a single appearance in the CFP. Dare we say that ends this fall? The spring was notable for a slew of injuries and recoveries among projected starters, but backups received meaningful reps. The depth is there after stacking some notable recruiting classes. QB Jayden Maiava was fantastic last season in an under-the-radar showing that deserved more attention.
13. Ole Miss
The Pete Golding era began in December, culminating in a CFP win and a thriller against Miami in the semifinals. Now he faces a rebuilding project at several key positions, including receiver and linebacker. The Rebels pulled the nation's No. 2 transfer class -- one spot behind Kiffin at LSU -- and return superstar quarterback Trinidad Chambliss and running back Kewan Lacy. No offseason win was bigger than a local judge granting Chambliss a sixth year of eligibility in February.
14. Alabama
Alabama is positioned to outperform the top 25's expectations, but offseason developments have reduced confidence in the Tide heading into Kalen DeBoer's third season. NC State running back Hollywood Smothers reneged on his transfer commitment, opting instead for Texas. The quarterback position is still up for grabs, though it appears Keelon Russell has the edge over Austin Mack. DeBoer is an elite coach, but it's still nearly impossible to match the standard still bleeding over from the Nick Saban era.
15. Michigan
Michigan needed a hard reset following the Sherrone Moore error (not era). Kyle Whittingham sets high standards and maintains consistency at the head of the table. He brings with him an incredible offensive coordinator, Jason Beck. Coupled with rising sophomore QB Bryce Underwood, this offense could blossom into something special by the middle of the season. The Wolverines are in position to reach the CFP, but we'll rank them here for now.
16. Tennessee
Tennessee whiffed in the transfer portal at quarterback, leaving George MacIntyre and Faizon Brandon to battle for the job in the spring. I'm a big believer in Josh Heupel pushing quarterbacks beyond their perceived limitations, so my concerns haven't ballooned out of control. This season's difference could be the arrival of defensive coordinator Jim Knowles, who worked wonders at Oklahoma State before turning around Ohio State and spending a single season at Penn State. The secondary could be the most improved unit in the SEC.
17. BYU
Veteran rosters will always do well in this new era, but the loss of the three top receivers from last season could lead to some growing pains. QB Bear Bachmeier returns after a breakout season. Let's see the Cougars lean more on the tight ends and 12 personnel. The defense saw few changes to the scheme, with Kelly Poppinga now leading the unit.
18. Iowa
I struggled with Iowa, but Kirk Ferentz seemingly always gets the best out of his roster, and the pieces still are capable of a top-20 season. The defensive line loses six players in the rotation, and three offensive linemen are off to the pros. Oh, and the quarterback competition between Jeremy Hecklinski and Hank Brown will continue through August.
19. Penn State
The Nittany Lions will be a mishmash of old and new, and this first year under Matt Campbell will look more like "Iowa State East" than the Penn State of the past under James Franklin. He brought along two dozen players from Iowa State, including quarterback Rocco Becht, the veteran who is an immediate upgrade.
20. Missouri
Missouri fell short of the CFP last season, mostly because of injuries and inconsistency at quarterback, but the Tigers upgraded this offseason with the addition of Ole Miss transfer Austin Simmons and Michigan OC Chip Lindsey. RB Ahmad Hardy, one of the nation's best, returns. The roster looks different, and so does the coaching, but the schedule is once again navigable, and coaches seem more positive about offensive output.
Ahmad Hardy is back for Missouri after rushing for 1,649 yards and 16 touchdowns in 2025 for the Tigers. Getty Images 
21. Washington
QB Demond Williams Jr.'s redemption tour ended this spring after he temporarily left the program for the portal and then returned. He'll lift the Huskies to great heights this season. There are spots to improve at receiver after Denzel Boston's departure. The linebacker spots look to be a strength. Overall, the roster is set for a top-25 run.
22. Clemson
This ranking is more a credit to Dabo Swinney's consistency rather than the talent on board. What's old is new again at Clemson with Swinney sticking to what's familiar rather than stretching his boundaries. Christopher Vizzina steps in as the starting quarterback with coordinator Chad Morris returning after a decade away from Clemson. The defense won the spring game, with the first-teamers combining for nine sacks, but only two offensive starters were on the field. Tom Allen is calling plays for a second year.
23. Florida
Jon Sumrall just wins (he's never won less than nine games in a season), but that will be challenged in Year 1 at Florida. The quarterback battle between Aaron Philo and Tramell Jones Jr. will continue into the summer, but Philo has the edge because of his familiarity with former Georgia Tech OC Buster Faulkner's system. Jones, however, was impressive in the spring. Sumrall will mold the offense and defense around strengths, and the Gators will finally back up a top-25 roster with a top-25 ranking.
24. Utah
The offense will be a work in progress with QB Devon Dampier returning under a new OC. In fact, it's a transition year for the entire program after longtime coach Kyle Whittingham's surprising departure for Michigan. DC Morgan Scalley steps in after serving as the "coach in waiting" and has made some changes, particularly in how the Utes practice. Can he maintain the physical edge in the trenches that defined the Utes under Whittingham?
25. SMU
The back end of SMU's defense was a disappointment last season, but the secondary appears to have improved with Marcellus Barnes and Tyren Polley stepping in. Kevin Jennings is in his third season as SMU's starting QB. The receivers are all about speed with Alabama transfer Jalen Hale and ECU's Yannick Smith providing vertical threats. Can SMU replicate the pass rush from last season despite losing 90% of its production?
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