There are only a handful of teams each season that realistically have the capability to compete for a national title, and the AP poll doesn't really do much to help find that cutoff point.
So instead of looking at the preseason AP Top 25 poll that came out on Monday as a pure ranking, let's instead twist it into a tier list. It's a mechanism that erases the gap between No. 3 and No. 7 and instead lumps teams together with their peers for the upcoming season.
So, in honor of the internet's favorite way to rank things – a S to F tier list, baby! – this is how the preseason Top 25 teams stack up in terms of their chances to win a national title, or in some cases, even reach the 12-team bracket.
Think of this as the criteria:
S: Legitimate national title favorite A: Can win if things break right B: Have big roster questions but are talented enough C: Can win a playoff game or two D: Could make the playoff F: Would be a surprise if they made the playoff
S Tier
No. 1 Ohio State, No. 2 Oregon, No. 3 Georgia, No. 4 Notre Dame, No. 5 Texas, No. 6 Indiana, No. 7 Miami
There's a clear top seven contending tier in college football this year.
You could attempt to separate out a team or two from that group – voters awarded everyone but Georgia and Texas a first-place vote.
Texas, for example, might have the most talented roster in college football. Then again, so could Oregon. Then again, in talking with scouts and coaches, Ohio State has an argument, and so do Notre Dame and Miami. Then can you really discount Indiana coming off a national title or a Georgia team that returns the second-most starters in the Power Four?
I can't really separate those teams without seeing them play a game. So, they belong in the same tier.
Each of those seven teams features a championship-worthy roster. All but two of them made the playoff last season, with Texas and Notre Dame among the first teams out.
All seven teams return a starting quarterback with at least one full season as a starter. Each roster is loaded with potential Day 1 draft picks. And each team is spending $30-plus million to put itself into contention.
Could the schedule present more difficulties for Ohio State or Texas, both of which have brutal roads, compared to Miami or Notre Dame? Absolutely. It may keep a team or two from this group out of the playoff. But if any of these seven reach the 12-team bracket, they're capable of winning a national title.
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A Tier
No. 9 Ole Miss, No. 10 Oklahoma, No. 11 LSU
Yep, three SEC teams. Two of them reached the playoffs last year, and the other, LSU, enters 2026 with what is likely the sport's most expensive roster.
The Rebels made a semifinal run a season ago with much of the same core. Trinidad Chambliss and Kewan Lacy return on offense, surrounded by what some in Oxford say is the most talented roster the Rebels have had since Lane Kiffin – at least some of the remaining staff that came over with him – stepped on campus. Chambliss is that good. The Rebels belong in the title conversation, if they can stay healthy.
Oklahoma is built like a championship contender on defense. That unit returns six starters, including arguably the best defensive line in college football. If the offense – particularly John Mateer and the o-line – can take a step forward with eight starters back, the Sooners have the requisite build to make a run.
As for LSU … the Tigers are plenty talented. They have a potential first-round pick at quarterback and offensive tackle. There's no shortage of depth. It's just a question of how it all comes together and how LSU navigates a brutal schedule in Year 1.
B Tier
No. 8 Texas A&M, No. 12 Texas Tech, No. 13 Alabama, No. 14 USC, No. 16 Michigan, No. 20 Tennessee
I'd consider this the cutoff point of teams capable of winning a national championship. But there are big question marks about each of these teams.
Texas A&M really straddles the line between A and B tier. What I worry about with the Aggies, who are extremely talented, is how a new-look o-line holds up along with a pair of new coordinators. Throw in the lingering questions that come with Marcel Reed's playoff performance against Miami and the most difficult schedule the Aggies have faced in the 12-team playoff era, and they fall to the B tier.
Texas Tech is so much more talented than the rest of the Big 12 – outside of BYU – that its playoff path is clear. But can this version of the Red Raiders compete offensively against the best defenses without Brendan Sorsby? That remains to be seen.
Everyone is focused on the quarterback battle at Alabama, but the big question mark is the o-line and run game. Alabama finished 126th nationally last season in yards per carry and must replace four starters on the o-line. The Tide are still talented. They're just no longer overwhelmingly so compared to their peers. Alabama's defense will be elite. The offense has a lot to prove.
I'm a huge fan of this version of USC. The Trojans return more starters than anyone in the P-4 and have the most talented roster of the Lincoln Riley era. But until I see a top-50 defense from the Trojans – they're hoping Gary Patterson jump-starts that unit – I'm skeptical. Plus, the schedule is BRUTAL with Oregon, Washington, Penn State, Ohio State and Indiana on deck, not to mention a cross-country road trip to Rutgers and a visit to Madison.
Michigan is too talented to dismiss as a potential contender. But it remains to be seen how Kyle Whittingham will fare in Ann Arbor. Plus, the passing game is still a work in progress.
The Vols sneak into this tier because of their ceiling. If they hit on Faizon Brandon as a true freshman and if Jim Knowles can craft an elite defense in Year 1, Tennessee is talented enough to win a title. But those are two big ifs, especially in the face of a difficult SEC path.
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C Tier
No. 14 BYU, No. 17 Washington, No. 18 Penn State. No. 19 SMU
Could you squint and see these four winning a playoff game or two? Sure.
BYU is more talented than most think. NFL scouts see the Cougars as having seven-plus draft-capable players looking ahead to 2027. If Bear Bachmeier takes a needed step forward as a passer and a go-to pass catcher emerges, BYU will be dangerous in the playoff.
Jedd Fisch continually overachieves, and I'd expect Washington to do so once again. The Huskies return seven offensive starters and should have one of the best front sevens in the Big Ten. It helps that Demond Williams is a talent deficit eraser. He's a ceiling raiser and is capable of winning a game or two on his own against better teams if he gets hot.
It's hard to know what this version of Penn State will look like under Matt Campbell. The Nittany Lions only return four starters and are a weird amalgamation of a Big Ten team stitched together with the best of Iowa State. But the Nittany Lions are an experienced roster, and this is the most talent Campbell's ever worked with. They could win a game in the playoff.
SMU is the team I'd point to as an ACC contender beyond Miami. The Mustangs bring back 11 starters, including seven on offense, and are led by one of the nation's most underrated passers in Kevin Jennings. If SMU gets back to the playoff, it's at least capable of springing an upset in Round 1.
D Tier
No. 21 Utah, No. 23 Houston, No. 24 Louisville
At this point, the question is: Could these teams reach the playoff?
It's possible with Utah and Houston. The Big 12 is reasonably open with Texas Tech's quarterback questions, and the Utes and Cougars are both talented enough.
Utah is more a hypothetical than a certainty under new head coach Morgan Scalley. But Devon Dampier and Wayshawn Parker create a reasonably high floor on offense, and Scalley's defenses have consistently been among the Big 12's best. It wouldn't be a shock to see Utah in Dallas with a chance to reach the CFB Playoff.
Houston fits in that category, too. The Cougars return 12 starters, are more talented across the board in Year 3 and get the belief of catching Texas Tech early in the season with Will Hammond's status still somewhat in question as he returns from an ACL tear. Houston will have a potentially elite secondary and run game. The Cougars will be a tough out for everyone in the Big 12.
As for the Cardinals, they've won nine-plus games each season. They'll once again be in the mix to reach the ACC title. I do question what Ohio State QB transfer Lincoln Kienholz will look like as QB1. But the Cardinals have a reasonably favorable conference schedule (no Miami, SMU at home) and do feature a truly elite player on both sides of the ball in running back Isaac Brown and edge Clev Lubin.
F Tier
Iowa and Missouri just don't have a path to realistically reach the CFB Playoff.
The Hawkeyes are perennially one of the biggest overachievers in the sport, having won eight-plus games each of the last five seasons. But they've never finished better than 15th in the final CFB Playoff poll in that time period, indicating a rather clear ceiling. The schedule for Iowa is also MUCH tougher in 2026 than it's been in recent years. The Hawkeyes could be out of the CFB Playoff mix by mid-October as they open Big Ten play with a trip to Michigan, a home game against Ohio State and a road game at Washington. It's just hard to see a Hawkeyes team with just six returning starters and an inexperienced QB reaching the playoff.
Missouri's managed to exceed expectations in recent years, too. But the schedule does not set up well – Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Texas. Georgia, Oklahoma – and there are a lot of unproven pieces on the roster outside of an excellent offensive line and run game. Expect Missouri to play a little bit like Iowa and try to shorten games and win in the trenches. That's just a tough thing to accomplish week after week in the SEC.
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