College football futures odds: Why Houston, not Texas Tech, offers the best value to win the Big 12 in 2026

After a, shall we say, tumultuous offseason in the Big 12, the college football season cannot get here soon enough.

And now that we know that quarterback Brendan Sorsby will not play for Texas Tech, the race for the conference title seems a bit more wide open than it did in mid-April. The Red Raiders, who won the Big 12 last season en route to a College Football Playoff appearance, were overwhelming -150 favorites at DraftKings to lift the trophy for the second year in a row before the sordid Sorsby saga. No other team in all of college football was a shorter favorite to win its conference than Tech.

And even after Sorsby situation ended with him leaving Lubbock and declaring for the NFL Supplemental Draft, the Red Raiders remain the decisive favorite in the Big 12, at +100. BYU is next at +550. Only the Miami Hurricanes, who are -136 to reign supreme in the ACC, are shorter favorites to win their conference title.

But while Texas Tech is the team to beat, the +100 odds don't offer much value to a futures bettor, especially considering that such a ticket can't be cashed until early December. Instead, there's another Big 12 team from Texas that is much more attractive in the futures market.

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Houston's resurgence

Donning a black cowboy hat with a brim as wide as his smile, Houston Cougars quarterback Conner Weigman sat victoriously in front of the media after last season's Texas Bowl. He and the Cougars had just dispatched LSU 38-35 to secure the program's first 10-win season since joining the Big 12 when he was asked what effect the victory could have for the upcoming 2026 season.

"We've got everything we need to be a power program, especially with coach [Willie] Fritz at the helm," Weigman said. "Anything is possible."

Indeed, Weigman and Fritz have Houston back in the saddle. And the case for the Cougars to win the Big 12 begins with the coach and quarterback.

The 66-year-old Fritz is a proven winner. In 33 seasons as a head coach, he has won double-digit games at five of his six stops. The only place in which he failed to win at least 10 was Georgia Southern, where he went 9-3 and 8-4 in his only two seasons. After the Cougars went 4-8 in his first season in Houston in 2024, the team soared to a 10-3 campaign last year.

For 2026 the Cougars rank among the country's top teams in returning production, with seven starters back on offense and six on defense. They are led by Weigman who, after struggling in three seasons at Texas A&M, had a breakout year last season, passing for 2,705 yards and 25 touchdowns against just nine interceptions. He will again be throwing to top receiver Amare Thomas (67 receptions, 966 yards), who ranked sixth in the country in receiving TDs (12).

Weigman should be even better in Year 2 in Houston. This spring was his first since high school in which he wasn't either 1) adjusting to a new offensive coordinator and playbook or 2) recovering from injury. In fact the Cougars are the only team among the top five favorites in the Big 12 to return its quarterback, head coach and both coordinators.

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Manageable schedule

In a 16-team conference in which teams don't play everyone, schedule can have a significant impact on the title race, and Houston's slate doesn't feature a series of killers.

The toughest game is a Week 3 showdown at Big 12 favorite Texas Tech on a Friday night. But that game is not as daunting with Sorsby no longer with the Red Raiders. In addition, Tech's presumed starter at quarterback for the season, Will Hammond, is recovering from a torn ACL he injured in October and there's no guarantee that he will be available, much less 100%, for that contest. If you have to play the Red Raiders in 2026, the time to play them is early, not late.

The Cougars also have to play at Kansas State (Oct. 10) and at Utah (Oct. 24), but both of those programs are in their first year under new head coaches. Houston avoids BYU, Arizona and Arizona State.

Texas Tech and BYU reached the 2025 Big 12 Championship Game with one conference loss, and that should be enough for any team this season.

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Concerns

There are reasons, of course, why Houston is a +1600 longshot. After ranking 74th in run blocking and 126th in pass blocking last season, the offensive line must play better this year. In addition, the Cougars have to replace five of their top seven tacklers from last season.

But Fritz struck gold with last year's transfer portal class, landing the likes of Weigman, Thomas and all-Big 12 tight end Tanner Koziol. He has imported another talented group to fill those holes, including right tackle Drew Terrill (Miami of Ohio), corner Jalen Mayo (Stephen F. Austin) and safety Javion White (Tulane).

The most impactful transfer, however, could be running back Makhi Hughes, who rushed for 2,779 yards and 20 touchdowns in two seasons at Tulane before failing to crack a deep running back rotation at Oregon last year. 

If Fritz can quickly get the newcomers up to speed with the talented returners, Houston has a chance to outplay its Big 12 odds,

"We did some great things last year, but we've got some big-time goals here at the University of Houston," Fritz said during the spring. "With our facilities and our location and our university, there's no reason why we can't compete for national championships, and that's what our goal is."