Sifting through rosters and schedules to determine the ceiling and floor for 2026 contenders
By Brad Crawford Apr 13, 2026 at 9:07 am ET • 16 min read 
Getty Images Approaching the end of spring practice across college football, now is the time coaching staffs hammer down their projected two-deeps and start glancing at the early-season schedule ahead of the 2026 season.
We're doing the same at CBS Sports, setting expectations for every top 25 team now that recruiting has settled and the onslaught of transfer portal comings and goings is finally over.
Using our previous way-too-early top 25 rankings from January as a guide, here's a look at every team's best- and worst-case scenario ahead of the 2026 season.
1. Ohio State
Best-case scenario: 12-0, 9-0. Without question, the Buckeyes will earn the No. 1 postseason seed if they get through this maniacally challenging schedule under Ryan Day without a blemish. Not only does Ohio State travel to Texas, but the Buckeyes will play Iowa, Indiana and USC away from Columbus and host Oregon and Michigan in November. The connection of Julian Sayin and Jeremiah Smith must be Heisman-worthy to go unscathed.
Worst-case scenario: 9-3, 7-2. No longer is Ohio State's roster head-and-shoulders better than the other elites in the Big Ten. USC just signed the No. 1 class in recruiting for the first time in 20 years, while the Ducks and Hoosiers continue to go on shopping sprees in the transfer portal. Nine wins might be enough to garner attention from the CFP selection committee when you consider this overall gauntlet the Buckeyes must endure.
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2. Texas
Best-case scenario: 12-0, 9-0. If the Longhorns return the favor and get past the Buckeyes in Week 2, they're going to be the favorite to win the SEC and get to the playoff as a top-4 seed this season. Equipped with one of the most complete rosters in the country and a quarterback who now has plenty of quality starts under his belt, this is the group worthy of being preseason No. 1 -- not last fall's pretenders on the Forty Acres.
Worst-case scenario: 8-4, 6-3. Steve Sarkisian gets the pressure ramped up on him in a major way if Texas wins eight games as a preseason top-10 team and heads back to the Citrus Bowl, well short of title aspirations. There's a chance the Longhorns have the top two players in the 2027 NFL Draft with Arch Manning and Colin Simmons leading both sides of the football, but the schedule has landmines. Environments during trips to Knoxville, Baton Rouge and College Station will be raucous.
3. Georgia
Best-case scenario: 12-0, 9-0. Kirby Smart's team only leaves the state of Georgia four times this season for games against Arkansas, Alabama, Ole Miss and South Carolina. The annual rivalry against Florida will be played in Atlanta, and the Bulldogs will be favored in all seven home games at Sanford Stadium. The reigning SEC champions appear to have a yellow brick road back to the CFP as long as they get to 10 wins.
Worst-case scenario: 8-4, 6-3. An early-season loss to Arkansas, Oklahoma or Vanderbilt ahead of the showdown at Alabama on Oct. 10 would potentially derail the campaign for the Bulldogs. The back half of the schedule post-Ole Miss is soft in terms of roster comparisons, so it would take an upset loss to Georgia Tech to hit this critically low number of wins.
4. Oregon
Best-case scenario: 11-1, 8-1. The Ducks should be commended for two of three non-conference matchups coming against Boise State and Oklahoma State, two squads we're expecting to reach bowl eligibility this fall. The Big Ten opener is in Los Angeles against Lincoln Riley, then there are three contests with ranked opponents in November. Dante Moore will have another terrific season in this scenario, leading to the program's third straight CFP berth.
Worst-case scenario: 8-4, 6-3. Dan Lanning has never lost more than two conference games in his four seasons as Oregon's coach, but let's say the coordinator departures from his 2026 staff come back to haunt the Ducks. Maybe Oklahoma State -- with an entirely new team under Eric Morris -- shocks Oregon in Stillwater early before the Ducks go 1-3 against the likes of USC, Ohio State, Michigan and Washington. Is it really that far-fetched?
5. Notre Dame
Best-case scenario: 12-0. One of four teams we project as a CFP semifinalist this fall, consider me convinced this will be Notre Dame's best team under Marcus Freeman. Even without Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price, the Fighting Irish's two-deep is far superior to at least 11 of their regular-season opponents, with Miami on Nov. 7 in South Bend being the lone squad worthy of being in the argument.
Worst-case scenario: 9-3. Notre Dame's season ends in catastrophe if three losses show up against the three top-25 opponents on the schedule -- BYU, Miami and SMU. The trek to Provo, Utah, in mid-October is a barometer game for the Fighting Irish and quarterback CJ Carr, who should be 6-0 at that point with relative ease.
6. Texas A&M
Best-case scenario: 10-2, 7-2. Unlike last season's march to 11 straight wins prior to a loss at Texas, Mike Elko's team will not benefit from a soft slate in SEC play. There's LSU, Alabama and Oklahoma on the road and the Aggies haven't yet figured out the Longhorns under the current regime. Marcel Reed needs to take a step forward in his development at quarterback for Texas A&M to get the finish it wants this fall.
Worst-case scenario: 7-5, 4-5. The Aggies would not be able to keep boosters quiet if a team with this much talent loses five games this season, but there are potentially seven matchups against ranked competition if Arizona State, Missouri and Tennessee are all credible at the time of kickoff.
7. Texas Tech
Best-case scenario: 12-0, 9-0. Sans an unexpected loss to Houston at home or a road upset, the Red Raiders are a runaway favorite to repeat as Big 12 champions after more colossal pulls in the transfer portal. Not only did Texas Tech sign top-end quarterback Brendan Sorsby (Cincinnati), but the staff reloaded on the defensive side with Wake Forest defensive juggernaut Mateen Ibirogba, Kansas State linebacker Austin Romaine and Houston's Corey Platt Jr.
Worst-case scenario: 9-3, 6-3. If Sorsby busts, this team could torpedo quickly unless backup Will Hammond delivers. Despite weapons returning in the backfield and on the outside, everything is centered around Sorsby delivering with precision and being this squad's unquestioned -- and handsomely paid -- leader. There's potential trouble during conference play as well if defensive personnel changes sputter.
8. Indiana
Best-case scenario: 12-0, 9-0. Can Indiana catch lightning in a bottle in consecutive seasons? Much of that revolves around new faces in the backfield and quarterback Josh Hoover, who comes over from TCU following Fernando Mendoza's Heisman run. Despite losing D'Angelo Ponds and Aiden Fisher as focal points defensively, this unit should yield plenty of production.
Worst-case scenario: 9-3, 6-3. Unless you're liquidating all of Curt Cignetti's stock at its highest value, don't expect the Hoosiers to fall outside of the top 15 coming off the program's first national championship. Yes, they're going to get every team's best shot in the Big Ten, but they're as well-coached as any squad nationally and should continue to thrive in this new era of talent acquisition.
9. Michigan
Best-case scenario: 11-1, 8-1. Jason Beck is tasked with unlocking Bryce Underwood as the conference's next superstar at quarterback, and first-year Wolverines coach Kyle Whittingham is confident his former OC at Utah can make it happen. Michigan has a top-15 signing class and several immediate-impact transfers that should help the program rebound from last season's somewhat disappointing finish.
Worst-case scenario: 7-5, 5-4. The schedule includes Oklahoma, Iowa, Penn State and Indiana at home before road battles at Oregon and Ohio State in the final three weeks of the season. Realistically, going .500 against those six opponents could feel like a mini-win for Whittingham and staff.
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10. Oklahoma
Best-case scenario: 10-2, 7-2. Struggling on offense this season would nuke Oklahoma's shot at double-digit wins, which is why the Sooners' recruiting staff made it a point to bring in reliable weaponry around John Mateer to pair with Isaiah Setagna III this fall. Oklahoma needs an early confidence boost by beating Michigan in Ann Arbor during Week 2 to get to this win total.
Worst-case scenario: 6-6; 4-5. The Sooners face Michigan, Georgia and Texas during their first five games of the campaign, not that Brent Venables will be surprised by the slate. He hammered home the point several times last season that the Sooners take things one weekend at a time and let the chips fall where they may. That resulted in a CFP berth in 2025.
11. USC
Best-case scenario: 11-1, 8-1. Given the Trojans' record thus far under Lincoln Riley in Big Ten action, we're not going to call for a perfect regular season with Oregon, Washington, Penn State, Ohio State and Indiana on the docket in 2026. Now, winning four of those games is a possibility if the nation's top-ranked signing class offers immediate support and quarterback Jayden Maiava brings Heisman-level play offensively.
Worst-case scenario: 7-5, 4-5. New USC defensive coordinator Gary Patterson hasn't seen talent like this in all of his years of coaching. He's also never had to scheme up a competitive game plan for potentially four top-10 opponents, each with future NFL talent at quarterback. We'll know if USC's worst-case scenario has a chance of materializing if the Trojans fall flat against Oregon and Washington over consecutive games in Weeks 5 and 6.
12. BYU
Best-case scenario: 11-1, 9-0. Here we go again for the Cougars, who would need to win the Big 12 Championship in this scenario to solidify a spot in the CFP. That's not what Kalani Sitake or anyone on this roster wants to hear after nearly getting to the 12-team bracket last fall. That said, BYU does play Notre Dame head-to-head on Oct. 17, and that's a statement opportunity.
Worst-case scenario: 8-4, 6-3. In addition to the home bout with the Fighting Irish, the Cougars go to Utah and TCU, and have a matchup with Arizona State sandwiched between those games. Losing defensive coordinator Jay Hill to Michigan was significant, and it remains to be seen how much that's going to hurt BYU schematically.
13. Miami
Best-case scenario: 12-0, 9-0. Unfortunately for the rest of the ACC, the rich did indeed expand their wealth this offseason at Miami. Not only did the Hurricanes retain league freshman of the year Malachi Toney, but they shored up defensive holes in the portal and persuaded the two best players from Duke's ACC Championship-winning team -- quarterback Darian Mensah and wideout Cooper Barkate -- to join the party in South Florida.
Worst-case scenario: 10-2, 8-1. The Hurricanes' tussle at Notre Dame in November likely determines top-4 seeding in the eventual CFP bracket. However, if there's another loss somewhere on the schedule, that's where things could get sticky for Mario Cristobal and a squad itching to get back. Miami should roll most opponents in conference play, but it does have a couple of Friday night games, which have historically proved tricky for ACC favorites in recent years.
14. LSU
Best-case scenario: 11-1, 8-1. The bad news? The only SEC elite not on Lane Kiffin's first-year schedule at LSU is Georgia. The good news? The Tigers just spent more on talent than they ever have previously and have assured this coaching staff that guaranteed production is coming across all position groups. Kiffin has preached patience this offseason, but let's face it -- failing to reach the CFP in Year 1 will not meet expectations.
Worst-case scenario: 8-4, 6-3. The Ole Miss faithful would pay anything to see this happen, but truthfully, the Tigers' roster looks relatively foolproof overall. LSU could still recover from an opening loss to Clemson during conference action, but not if new quarterback Sam Leavitt has his confidence rattled in the face of enormous pressure as this portal cycle's top-ranked player.
15. Alabama
Best-case scenario: 11-1, 8-1. Kalen DeBoer would flex on a bunch of folks who believe his best days are behind him if Alabama wins 11 this season and gets back to the SEC Championship Game. That would likely mean some semblance of a rushing attack, production out of the quarterback position and a secondary that successfully patrols the air in conference play.
Worst-case scenario: 7-5, 4-5. The Crimson Tide's not going to lose at home to Florida State. It won't happen, not with the Seminoles' current roster worries offensively. There's a chance the SEC slate will not be as favorable, however. South Carolina has nearly clipped Alabama in consecutive seasons, and there are contests against Georgia, at Tennessee, Texas A&M, at LSU and Auburn that are not automatic. Heck, you have to throw the road game at Vanderbilt in that category, too.
Alabama quarterback Keelon Russell (12) breaks away from the defense during the Crimson Tide's A-Day spring game on April 11 in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. Imagn Images 
16. Louisville
Best-case scenario: 11-1, 8-1. Jeff Brohm is in a position to win at least nine games this season, something he's managed to accomplish every year since his arrival prior to the 2023 campaign. The Cardinals were big spenders in the portal and retained Isaac Brown in the backfield, an electrifying player who should easily eclipse 1,000 yards this season if healthy.
Worst-case scenario: 7-5, 5-4. Ole Miss and SMU out of the gate in the first three weeks of the season will be a litmus test of sorts for Louisville. Any hopes of staying inside the top 25 are out the window with losses to those two teams of comparable talent. Georgia Tech and Kentucky away from home in the final month could get tricky, especially if the Wildcats are improved under first-year coach Will Stein.
17. Missouri
Best-case scenario: 9-3, 6-3. The more glances at the Tigers' schedule, the more confidence wanes. This is the toughest slate Eli Drinkwitz has faced in his tenure. Perhaps Ole Miss transfer quarterback Austin Simmons and Doak Walker candidate Ahmad Hardy score a bunch of points and swat the competition, but the small backslide could continue in Columbia.
Worst-case scenario: 5-7, 3-6. Yeah, this would be a frightening finish. Basically, the Tigers would lose all of their marquee SEC games -- Florida, Texas A&M, at Ole Miss, Texas, Georgia, Oklahoma -- and stub their toe in September at Kansas. Gulp.
18. Utah
Best-case scenario: 10-2, 7-2. I'm not buying into the possibility of 11 wins without Kyle Whittingham calling shots, and that's no disrespect to Morgan Scalley taking over as coach. Last season's play-caller, who helped develop play-making quarterbacks Devon Dampier and Byrd Ficklin, is out, too.
Worst-case scenario: 7-5, 5-4. Arkansas. BYU. TCU. Houston. Arizona. If it goes bad for the Utes' new regime, these are the teams who could take advantage. At least three of those matches come in Salt Lake City, where this program is nearly unbeatable inside Rice-Eccles Stadium.
19. Washington
Best-case scenario: 11-1, 8-1. Demond Williams Jr. will be a Heisman finalist at quarterback for the Huskies if they're able to hit 11 wins during the regular season, which would include at least two victories against the trio of USC, Indiana and Oregon. Jedd Fisch is a Williams advocate, despite the quarterback's attempt to leave the program via the transfer portal while contractually obligated to stay.
Worst-case scenario: 7-5, 4-5. Even before a November stretch that includes three nationally-ranked opponents, Washington must get through Minnesota, USC, Iowa and Nebraska to avoid an early sinking of the ship in Seattle. Those are teams that could, potentially, out-muscle the Huskies at the line of scrimmage if they take the finesse approach.
20. Ole Miss
Best-case scenario: 11-1, 8-1. Go ahead and give Pete Golding the SEC's Coach of the Year honor if he takes the Rebels to 11 wins, matching last fall's total during the regular season under the previous regime. With Trinidad Chambliss and Kewan Lacy back, that's a tandem that should combine for 40 or more touchdowns despite a schedule that includes five teams in CBS Sports' way-too-early top 25.
Worst-case scenario: 7-5, 5-4. Reinforcements on defense, along the offensive line and in the wide receiver room would have to go belly up for Ole Miss to drop outside of the national rankings completely, but it's possible given the slate. The Rebels open against Louisville in Nashville, then host LSU in their SEC opener two weeks later. Contests with Texas, Georgia and Oklahoma come during the second half. Those are all losable games.
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21. Houston
Best-case scenario: 11-1, 8-1. Don't overlook Willie Fritz and the Cougars as a dark-horse CFP contender this season. He quietly has things rolling at Houston and brings back his reliable 1-2 punch offensively to face a schedule his team could find advantageous in spots.
Worst-case scenario: 8-4, 5-4. The non-conference portion is no worry, but Houston does play Texas Tech, Kansas State and Utah on the road, along with a trip to West Virginia on Nov. 21. The Mountaineers signed college football's leading rusher last season, Cam Cook, in the transfer portal out of Jacksonville State.
22. Penn State
Best-case scenario: 11-1, 8-1. Matt Campbell will not have to deal with Ohio State, Indiana or Oregon during his first season in Happy Valley, so he needs to make the most of a somewhat favorable slate. Albeit unlikely, finishing with only one Big Ten loss would mean a 2-1 record against USC, Michigan and Washington for the Nittany Lions.
Worst-case scenario: 7-5, 4-5. This two-deep at Penn State is essentially Campbell's best players from an Iowa State team that finished with eight wins last fall, so there could be regression in a more competitive conference. Outside of replacing Drew Allar, Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen as the notable playmakers offensively, the Nittany Lions also lost Chaz Coleman, Amare Campbell and other expected impact defensive starters to the portal.
23. SMU
Best-case scenario: 11-1, 9-0. The gargantuan challenge against Notre Dame in South Bend is the only identifiable loss for the Mustangs this spring, given who SMU signed in the portal and the return of a few key pieces in the trenches. Rhett Lashlee has to feel good about his team's chance to win the ACC, especially since they'll dodge Miami during the regular season.
Worst-case scenario: 7-5, 5-4. With veteran Kevin Jennings at quarterback, there's only so far the Mustangs can fall, just two years removed from the program's first CFP appearance. Road games at Florida State, Louisville and Notre Dame are relative toss-ups and the only other matchup that may favor the opposition is a home bout with California on Oct. 24 -- if the Golden Bears potentially come in at 7-0.
24. Virginia Tech
Best-case scenario: 10-2, 7-2. Hokies fans will want to give James Franklin a lifetime contract if he wins 10 games during his first season, but he may never find another ACC schedule as conducive to success as this one. Battles at SMU, Clemson and Miami are worrisome, yes, but there's enough former Penn State firepower in the two-deep to put up a strong fight against those opponents.
Worst-case scenario: 6-6, 4-5. It may get ugly for an offense in transition if quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer and the Hokies struggle at Maryland on Sept. 19. The Terps have their backs against the wall this season with Mike Locksley on the hot seat and have that one circled on their calendar. Losing in College Park would let the air out of the balloon at Virginia Tech and could commence a full-scale rebuild mentality in Blacksburg.
25. South Carolina
Best-case scenario: 10-2, 7-2. If quarterback LaNorris Sellers returns to 2024 form for the Gamecocks under new offensive coordinator Kendal Briles, perhaps we see a mirror image of the team that finished one win shy of reaching the CFP two years ago. The Week 4 trip to Alabama is pivotal in getting to 10 wins. South Carolina has lost to the Crimson Tide in the final seconds back-to-back seasons.
Worst-case scenario: 4-8, 2-7. The first year of the SEC's nine-game slate could be unkind to the Gamecocks if this portal-driven overhaul along the offensive line fails to produce. The second half of the season includes Tennessee, at Oklahoma, Texas A&M, at Arkansas, Georgia and at Clemson without a bye week. That's SEC brutality at its finest with a possible contender from the ACC tossed in for good measure.
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