Last season, we had Cal Raleigh vs. Aaron Judge in a heated race for American League MVP. Ronald Acuña Jr. vs. Mookie Betts in 2023 was a big one (even if it didn't end up close in voting), just as Shohei Ohtani vs. Judge (2022) and Ohtani vs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in 2021 garnered plenty of virtual ink.
This season, it's all coming down to Ohtani vs. Cubs center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong debate for National League MVP.
On Wednesday, PCA had a game-tying RBI double and then scored on a go-ahead home run in a Cubs win, while Ohtani hit a go-ahead home run in a Dodgers win. The Dodgers are 73-48 and the Cubs are 71-50, both within close range of the best record in baseball.
It's only August, of course, which means both players have six weeks to continue building their résumés. But there's another interesting wrinkle in the race: does Ohtani pitch again during the regular season? And if so, how much does he actually pitch? On that front, there's been movement. Sort of.
This past weekend, Ohtani began a throwing program. Via MLB.com, it could look like this in the coming weeks.
He will need several days to continue stretching out his catch play by throwing out to greater distances. Once he's advanced to long toss, Ohtani can begin a bullpen progression. After that, he'll face live hitters before easing back into games at the big-league level.
And still, it's not a sure thing that he'll be a starting pitcher -- or at least carry a starter's workload -- once he returns.
"Any inning, any innings we get from him are bonuses, given he's a two-way player," manager Dave Roberts said (MLB.com). "So I think whether it's one inning, two innings, three innings, I'm not too concerned about the timeline."
Beyond the implications for the Dodgers, Ohtani's status as a two-way player is central to the argument that he's the most valuable player in baseball. Because if he wasn't a pitcher, this isn't a discussion. Really, it isn't. Watch as I break it down between hitting, baserunning and defense in this race.
Hitting
PCA and Ohtani aren't all too dissimilar by the numbers.
Ohtani: .292/.393/.544, 157 OPS+, 23 doubles, two triples, 27 home runs, 74 RBI, 77 runs PCA: .284/.384/.544, 156 OPS+, 24 doubles, seven triples, 27 home runs, 73 RBI, 86 runs
Baserunning
BsR is baserunning runs above average, XBT is the percentage of extra bases taken (getting to third from first on a single, scoring from first on a double, etc.). PCA has a lead here, arguably a substantial one.
Ohtani: 7 for 10 in stolen bases, 0.5 BsR, 46.5% XBT PCA: 30 for 37 in stolen bases, 4.9 BsR, 50% XBT
Note: League average in XBT is 42%, and 4.9 BsR puts PCA fifth in the NL.
Defense
It's a monster blowout.
Ohtani: Doesn't play defense other than when he pitches. PCA: Leads the majors (all positions) in fielding run value, outs above average, runs prevented and defensive WAR, which arguably makes him the single best defensive player in baseball. He's spent 1,029 ⅔ innings in center field.
It's clear from everything there that PCA is the more valuable position player, and I don't even think the biggest Dodgers/Ohtani homers would even attempt to argue otherwise. It isn't particularly close.
This is why the pitching performance and workload from Ohtani are the crux of the pro-Ohtani argument and, by extension, anti-PCA in this matter. Because Ohtani does pitch. At least he did and probably will again.
On the mound, Ohtani is 8-2 with a 1.79 ERA and 0.95 WHIP, but it's in just 85 ⅔ innings. That's not a large workload. Keep in mind, a pitcher needs to throw at least one inning per team game to qualify for the ERA title, which means 162 innings in a season. Right now through 121 games, he's roughly 35 innings short. It's pretty obvious at this juncture that Ohtani isn't getting anywhere near qualifying. Ohtani still hasn't pitched since July 3, won't be pitching any time soon and might not throw more than a handful of innings the rest of the season.
But being a totally dominant pitcher for a tick over 85 innings is very valuable. Pitcher is an exponentially more impactful position on a per-inning basis. No one, not even in the PCA camp, would argue with this stance.
And now we get to the tricky part.
What kind of workload should be required from Ohtani to surpass PCA in total value, given the somewhat even hitting and then separation provided in baserunning and defense? It's a difficult question to answer, but one that dictates the entire race.
The only mainstream statistic that attempts to place a value on both pitchers and hitters in similar fashion would be WAR. We all know better than to look at a single stat to determine which player has more value -- especially when a race is this close -- and there's a margin of error on WAR. It's not a "be-all, end-all" figure, but it helps paint a picture.
For those interested in looking in a level-headed fashion, let's look at bWAR (Baseball Reference) and fWAR (FanGraphs). The two formulas are more similar for position players than for pitchers, but bWAR uses Defensive Runs Saved to measure fielding runs, while fWAR uses Ultimate Zone Rating. For pitchers, bWAR uses Runs Allowed per 9 innings, while fWAR uses fielding independent pitching.
Here's where the two players stand right now:
bWAR
PCA: 7.5 Ohtani: 6.4
fWAR
PCA: 8.0 Ohtani: 6.7
I can't reiterate this point strongly enough: If this continues, this doesn't necessarily mean PCA should win MVP. We're just examining the numbers at our disposal, and WAR is one that takes hitting, baserunning, defense and pitching into consideration.
A final item to keep in mind here is that voters are human and we have decades of evidence in multiple sports that voter fatigue happens at times, notably when there's a very close race between a player who has already won multiple MVPs against one who hasn't yet won any. PCA has zero MVPs. Ohtani has four. Do with this information what you will.
My best guess is that if the race continues in similar fashion to how it is unfolding now, PCA is going to win. The gambling odds seem to tilt that way, too. Via DraftKings, here's where they stand heading into Thursday:
PCA: -120 Ohtani: +100
We still have an awful lot of baseball left, though. Either player could hit a cold spell or a serious heater. Ohtani could return to the mound and rack up another 40 dominant innings, in which case he'd win. Either player could suffer an injury that lands him on the IL and, man, what a bummer that would be.
We just don't know how it'll all unfold, and that's what makes it so fun.
One thing we do know is this is a two-man race and both look like deserving MVPs this season, albeit in different ways.
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