The most accomplished active NFL quarterback who has yet to reach a Super Bowl? Some could argue Baltimore's Lamar Jackson, but I'd counter with Buffalo's Josh Allen. Might Allen have missed his best chance to reach a Super Bowl last season, when neither Jackson nor fellow multiple-time MVP Patrick Mahomes nor Joe Burrow were even in the AFC playoff field? Fans interested in futures betting on the best betting apps need to follow our NFL news page, and bettors can find picks from the SportsLine Projection Model and our experts for the 2026 NFL season.
Bettors at DraftKings Sportsbook, one of the best sports betting sites, don't think so. Maybe Bills ownership did, because it allowed the firing of mega-successful head coach Sean McDermott when most Buffalo fans have been putting the blame on GM Brandon Beane for not putting enough talent around Allen, especially at wideout. McDermott owned the second-most wins wins (98) in an NFL head coach's first nine seasons in league history.
Yet ownership not only kept Beane but doubled down by also giving him the title of President of Football Operations. The good news is that it should be a pretty seamless coaching transition, with former offensive coordinator Joe Brady now in the top job. Since Brady took over for the fired Ken Dorsey in November 2023 at OC, Buffalo has the NFL's best record (31-10), top scoring offense (29.1 points per game) and most rushing scores (72), while ranking fourth in average total offense per game (380.9 yards).
Allen leads the NFL in total touchdowns in that span with 98 (obviously he rushes for many, as well) and his touchdown-to-turnover ratio of 3.38 is second-best in the league. His ratio of 2.06 under Dorsey was eighth. And Allen is still square in his prime, having turned 30 in May. There's no doubt a bit of a Super Bowl weight is starting to grow – especially after a playoff career-high four turnovers in last season's Divisional Round OT loss in Denver.
As a quick aside, perhaps fade the Bills this year if they play in overtime. Allen is now 0-7 in such games including playoffs, the most OT losses without a win in NFL history. Three of those are in the playoffs, tied for most.
The 2024 NFL MVP owns 340 total touchdowns including playoffs, which are the most by any player in history before age 30. Allen also owns the second-most quarterback wins (96) and total yards (39,540) before age 30, including playoffs. But also … the most playoff losses (seven) by a starting QB before age 30.
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For this season, Allen is the +600 favorite for a second MVP, +2500 to lead the league in passing yards and +2000 in passing TDs. I don't recommend either of those, simply as Allen runs so much that he doesn't put up video-game passing numbers. But DraftKings is exposed on Allen for the passing TDs prop. His season totals are set at 3,624.5 yards and 24.5 pass TDs. Huge Over leans on both at the book.
Allen should have a true No. 1 receiver this season, unlike last, after the trade acquisition of D.J. Moore. Buffalo ranked outside the top 20 league-wide in receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns the past two seasons after ranking top two in all categories the four prior to that, when Stefon Diggs was a clear No. 1.
To win their first Super Bowl, the Bills are +1000, along with +510 for the AFC and -136 for the AFC East. You can bet their win total at either 10.5 or 11.5, but Over 11.5 (+154) is the most-wagered Over, both via tickets and handle, at the book of any club. Via tickets and handle, DK's two most-wagered Super Bowl matchups are Bills vs. Rams and Bills vs. Bears.
The SportsLine Projection Model is, in my opinion, awfully pessimistic on the Bills at just 9.65 wins, a 10.0% shot at the AFC title and 4.7% to win the Super Bowl. Could be a playoff preview Week 1 in Houston.
Should Buffalo lose, and it is -1.5 for the opener, the model would drop that win total down to 9.24 but a win to 10.26 and the AFC title odds up to 12.0%. That's obviously in part because it would own an important head-to-head tiebreaker over a good Texans team and also would come on the road.
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