Trying to figure out what's "real" and what's not is the toughest thing to do in the NFL, especially early in the season. Were Bryce Young's excellent first two weeks "real," or now, after a bad game against the Browns, is the "real" Bryce Young the one we've seen most of his career?
There's so much convoluting that, too. Different matchups, different schemes, different adjustments, different luck and, most of all, different human beings. These players aren't robots. They have good days. They have bad days. The get put in good situations. They get put in bad situations. One could simply say Young's struggles were indicative of who is as a player, or they could listen to Darren Waller go way, way, waaaaay in depth ... and still chuck it up to "those are the kinds of things that happen early on in the season."
Trying to assess what's real and what's not regarding top teams' strengths and weaknesses is similarly hard, but not impossible. As such, we're looking at the six teams with the shortest Super Bowl odds -- the "contenders" if you will, though certainly not an exhaustive list -- and hoping to determine their biggest weaknesses.
Are they real? Are they illusions? The rest of the year will tell, but for now, this is what is keeping the upper tier up at night.
(Odds via DraftKings)
Rams: Injuries exposing iffy depth
- Super Bowl odds: +670
The great thing about stars is that they're stars. The bad thing about stars is that they cost a lot, and so filling out the rest of the roster behind them becomes a challenge. Right now, the Rams are dealing with injuries to reigning Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett, superstar wide receiver Puka Nacua and crucial offseason addition Jaylen Watson.
And behind them, there's a lack of depth. Let's look at all three positions.
- Pass rush: The Rams are currently 29th in sack rate, an inconceivable number considering they were 10th last year and they swapped Jared Verse (a very good player) for Garrett (an all-time one). But Garrett has hardly played, meaning behind Kobie Turner and Byron Young, there's a lot of inexperienced players getting outsized roles. Turner's pressure rate is downfrom 12.4% last year to 7.6% this year. The good news is the Rams are still generating pressure, so the sacks should follow.
- Wide receiver: With no Nacua, it's the Davante Adams show. The Rams only dressed four wide receivers, compared to five tight ends. "SNF" play-by-play man Mike Tirico said he couldn't remember a time he had more tight ends than wide receivers on his call sheet. And even though Konata Mumpfield had a great game, including a long touchdown, you can see the element that's missing. Nacua unlocks pretty much everything for Sean McVay's offense. The three tight-end looks are helpful -- the Rams led the NFL in those looks last year -- but they don't provide the dynamism Nacua does. No one does, really. Oh yeah, and the most explosive tight end, Terrance Ferguson, got hurt Sunday.
- Cornerback: With Watson out, the Rams rotated in Josh Wallace and Emmanuel Forbes Jr. Wallace was called for the controversial (aka wrong) pass interference against Pat Bryant that saved the game for the Broncos, and Forbes got picked on.
It's hard to be too worried about the Rams. If they were 2-1 with a dominant win over the Giants and a win at the Broncos and their only loss being after a 16-hour flight to Australia, these worries would be far less. But the margins are very, very slim in the NFL.
Bills: Turnovers
- Super Bowl odds: +670
The Bills are 3-0 and look like a powerhouse. The offense is humming when it doesn't turn the ball over, and the defense is geeting star jumps from Greg Rousseau and Deone Walker.
But those pesky, pesky turnovers. The Bills had five(!) in a win over the Chargers, a game they would have lost against better teams.
This has been the simple case against the Bills for a bit: Josh Allen will still have these error-prone games. Picture the Bills' playoff loss last year: Allen threw two interceptions (one very controversial) and lost two fumbles, including one of the worst you'll ever see. James Cook also lost a fumble. (He lost one Sunday, too). Those five turnovers turned into 16 Denver points in a 33-30 Broncos win.
Turnovers happen, but they cannot snowball, as they tend to do with Buffalo. The Bills have eight games (including playoffs) with multiple turnovers since the start of last season. They got away with it in Week 3. They can't keep getting away with it.
49ers: Injuries
- Super Bowl odds: +900
The 49ers are 3-0, but the list of injuries seems to grow by the day. Sunday alone, Mike Evans (ribs), Trent Williams (shoulder stinger) and Dre Greenlaw (quad) all left early. That came a few days after the 49ers announced Nick Bosa (calf) would miss a few weeks. Other injuries include wide receivers Ricky Pearsall, De'Zhaun Stribling, Demarcus Robinson and Christian Kirk all on IR. Defensive linemen C.J. West and Alfred Collins are both on IR. In fact, the 49ers didn't even put Bosa on IR because they're running out of IR spots.
As long as Kyle Shanahan's the coach and Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey and Fred Warner are healthy, the 49ers can stay above water. There may be no team better at it than the 49ers. But at some point, the fragility of the team could be exposed against better competition.
Ravens: Lack of defensive playmaking
- Super Bowl odds: +900
The Ravens' defense is good. It is not great (at least not yet). And when it comes down to the postseason, a team either needs a great defense or one that makes game-changing plays, and right now, the Ravens are yet to do either consistently.
Baltimore is 21st in defensive EPA per play, though 12th in defensive success rate, showing they've been decent down-to-down but not in big situations. A great example of that came in the fourth quarter of Week 2, when the Saints went three for five on third down and converted both fourth downs when they failed on third down.
Since forcing two turnovers in Week 1, the Ravens have forced just one in the past two weeks. They rank 23rd in sack rate. This wouldn't be so much of an issue if it wasn't deja vu: The Ravens have forced two turnovers in eight postseason games since Lamar Jackson became starter in 2019. The offense has to be able to make an error or two and know the defense can make it up. The last time the defense had multiple takeaways in a playoff game was the 2014 season.
The good news? Jesse Minter has the goods, and as the Ravens continue to get comfortable in his scheme, more game-changing plays should happen.
Seahawks: Run game
- Super Bowl odds: +1000
I wrote about this in my Week 3 overreactions: The Seahawks losing Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III in free agency was the worst free agency miss of the offseason.
Seattle is currently ...
- 31st in rushing EPA
- 29th in percentage of rushes that go 0 or negative yards
- 23rd in rushing success rate
In Week 3, Jadarian Price lost a crucial fumble, and Seattle as a whole managed just 44 yards on 18 carries. Seattle desperately misses Walker's explosiveness (the best thing he's brought to the Chiefs), and there's no easy way to get that back, even when Zach Charbonnet returns.
Chiefs: Playmaking wide receiver
- Super Bowl odds: +1050
It was hard to pick one here. The Chiefs have been awesome. But simply looking at the roster, the Chiefs' outside wide receivers are lacking. So far this season, Travis Kelce leads the Chiefs with 14 catches, followed by Rashee Rice at 13 and Walker at 11. Xavier Worthy has 10 (with two drops), and Tyquan Thornton has six.
Rice has started playing more outside -- his 32.5% slot rate is on pace to be the lowest of his career -- but it's not a perfect fit. Currently, when the Chiefs throw to outside receivers, they are ...
- 21st in yards per attempt
- 24th in yards per completion
- 31st in EPA per dropback
It might not actually be a worry at all considering how good Walker has been on the ground and how good Kelce has been through the air. But we can see a situation down the road where the lack of a go-to outside receiver would be an issue.
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