Big Ten expert picks: Projected order of finish, preseason predictions, top players to watch, starting lineups

Last season, Dusty May and his dominant Michigan club destroyed the usual preseason think pieces and talking points about why the Big Ten has not won an NCAA Tournament championship in a quarter-century.

The Big Ten led the way with six teams earning a top-five seed in the NCAA Tournament. It had six Sweet 16 teams, two Final Four clubs and the clear best team in the sport. It was the best league in America last year, even if kenpom.com's ratings favored the SEC.

That's a tough act to follow, but the investment in basketball is widespread across the conference. Contenders like Illinois and Michigan spent over $20 million on their respective rosters. Teams like Maryland and Indiana were spending real-deal money to revamp their teams after missing the NCAA Tournament last year. Outside of a few Big Ten locations, the stakes are high and the investment is real.

Let's dive into some of the Big Ten's best players followed by a preview of each team's strengths, weaknesses, outlook for 2026-27 and predicted order of finish as voted on by CBS Sports' college basketball experts.

Michigan State's Jeremy Fears Jr. moves the ball during the first basketball practice of the season on Tuesday, Sept. 22, 2026,

Tom Izzo will be looking for a big season from Jeremy Fears. Imagn Images

CBS Sports Big Ten Preseason Player of the Year

Jeremy Fears | PG | Michigan State

No Big Ten player has ever averaged north of 10 assists in a single season. Fears could change that this season and put his name in the Big Ten record books forever. He's that good.

Oh, and he guards his yard and has grown as a shooter every single year. Fears is way too smart to keep putting his team in harm's way with unnecessary antics. He's promised those days are behind him for good, and if that comes to fruition, Fears' sky-high basketball IQ can become his calling card.

CBS Sports Big Ten Freshman of the Year

Nikola Kusturica | SF | UCLA

Mick Cronin joked that he needed his staff to find him "the biggest, nastiest, vodka-drinking Eastern European" or "some guy that used to wrestle bears in Lithuania."

Well, they found Kusturica.

The Serbian product is only 17 (he can buy Vodka in Serbia in April), but he's got so much game. Kusturica averaged a whopping 24.6 points, 6.9 rebounds and 2.7 assists while excelling defensively in the FIBA U17 World Cup. He shined against a Team USA outfit that had Duke's Joaquim Boumtje-Boumtje and a horde of 2027 five-stars including Cayden Daughtry, NaVorro Bowman Jr. and Beckham Black.

Although Kusturica is young, the 6-9 forward has the tools (and mindset) to be an impact player from the beginning. Kusturica's motor is off the charts. He plays hard every single day of the week and twice on Sundays. His cutting, rebounding and defensive versatility are very valuable. Even on the nights when the shot isn't dropping, he's capable of impacting the game in a ton of ways.

Temper your expectations early for one of the youngest players in the sport, but Kusturica's time is coming soon.

Four more players to watch

David Mirkovic | F | Illinois: Get ready for The David Mirkovic Experience in Champaign. The 6-9 forward looks poised to transform into a first-round pick as the fulcrum of Illinois' high-powered offense once he returns from offseason foot surgery. Mirkovic played like a Big Ten Freshman of the Year last season, averaging 13.6 points, 7.9 rebounds and 2.7 assists; he was just overshadowed by the brilliant Keaton Wagler. Now, it's his time to shine. Mirkovic's combination of size, skill, shot-making, passing and fantastic quotes could help him become one of college basketball's true stars in 2026-27.

Elliot Cadeau | G | Michigan: Fears may lead the country in assists, but Cadeau is the best pure passer in the game. Lobs off the backboard? Sure. Pinpoint, cross-court dots with either hand? Yep. Fullcourt transition outlets? You better believe it. Cadeau truly has every pass in the arsenal. This revamped Michigan roster needs him to be both an elite creator and an elite scorer, while continuing to bring the snarl on defense. With great power comes great responsibility.

Pryce Sandfort | G | Nebraska: Every time Sandfort takes a shot, everyone in the gym thinks it's going in. Sandfort splashed 129 triples last season, while shooting a cool 70% at the rim. He's a ludicrously good offensive player.

Andrej Stojakovic | G | Illinois: Terrence Shannon Jr. used the Year 2 transfer jump to turn into an All-American under Brad Underwood, and Stojakovic is hoping to follow that path as well. Stojakovic's slick bully-ball drives are automatic. He can get to the rim in his sleep in an Illinois offense that spaces the floor so sharply. If the playmaking, defense and consistency come along, Stojakovic can assert himself as one of the best wings in this league.

Big Ten predicted order of finish

1. Illinois

Breakdown: With Dusty May's departure to the NBA, there's an opening for Brad Underwood to become the top dawg in the Big Ten. Getting to the Final Four was historic; returning would be even sweeter and cement Illinois' claim to be the new dominant program. Underwood has retained his entire staff and has a roster that can make a run thanks to an offense that could smash, just using a slightly different recipe.

The special Keaton Wagler is gone, so Illinois will need a little bit more from everybody to replace the lottery pick who came out of nowhere. Sophomore forward David Mirkovic, senior wing Andrej Stojakovic and Providence transfer Stefan Vaaks will be the Illini's best three offensive players. How they mesh will determine whether Illinois is a good team or a great one. If offensive coordinator Tyler Underwood can get all three to play clean basketball, this offense has a chance to be a top-five unit. Illinois can invert the floor nicely because Mirkovic, Tomislav Ivisic and Zvonimir Ivisic can all shoot 3-pointers. Illinois' bigs are also good passers, and both Ivisic brothers have packed on the weight to be interior enforcers.

Underwood teams always gobble offensive rebounds, and this team should be no different. Add in Vaaks' elite pull-up shooting and Stojakovic's automatic drives, and there are pathways to win both the shot-volume game and the shot-quality game.

Oh, and this roster is enormous. Five-star guard Quentin Coleman stands at a sprouting 6-4. He's the shortest rotation player on the team. That means Illinois' defensive outlook remains a high-floor unit, even though Ben Humrichous and Kylan Boswell will be missed.

If Mirkovic, Vaaks and Stojakovic play at All-Big Ten levels, Illinois has the make-up of one of college basketball's best teams. It is just too big to fail.

Projected starting lineup

G Stefan Vaaks (Providence transfer)
G Quentin Coleman
G Andrej Stojakovic
F David Mirkovic
C Tomislav Ivisic

Top reserves: F Jake Davis, C Zvonimir Ivisic, G Lincoln Williams, F Landon Davis, G Ethan Brown, G Lucas Morillo, F Jason Jakstys

2. Michigan State

Breakdown: You can win a lot of ballgames when you have a future Hall of Fame coach in Tom Izzo and a basketball genius at point guard in Jeremy Fears Jr.

Michigan State has quietly been stacking good recruiting classes on top of each other and retaining homegrown talent. It has eight former top-65 recruits in the rotation now. That's not nothing. But recruiting rankings don't matter, especially if you don't defend, rebound and run. That's what Michigan State's program is built on. Rebounding shouldn't be too much of an issue with Cam Ward and 7-2 Charlotte transfer Anton Bonke patrolling the paint. Running sure won't be a problem with Fears at the sticks and Carr — the best in-game dunker in college basketball — itching to hang on the rims. The defense should be really good with Fears and sophomore Jordan Scott embracing tough assignments, although MSU will miss big man Carson Cooper, who doused a ton of fires. Bonke isn't close to Cooper defensively, which opens the door for high-ceiling freshman Ethan Taylor to earn minutes.

Depth, defense, rebounding, and an awesome transition attack should keep Michigan State's floor really high, but the ceiling gets enticing because this offense has way more juice than a year ago when Fears was often the only player on the floor who could dribble. Michigan State turned it over 17.7% of the time in Big Ten play. That ranked 16th in the league and frustrated Izzo to no end because it limited MSU's chances to hit the offensive boards. This backcourt has far more creators and shot-makers, with Scott poised for a Year 2 jump, Kur Teng staying steady and talented freshmen like Jasiah Jervis and Carlos Medlock Jr. adding a jolt. Having multiple creators should make everything easier offensively, and don't overlook the return to form of Kaleb Glenn. The 6-7 wing is built like a brick house. He's a starter for a ton of high-major teams, but he's currently slated to come off the bench for a MSU rotation that goes super deep.

If Michigan State's centers are up to the task defensively, the Spartans can win six in a row.

Projected starting lineup

Top reserves: G Kur Teng, G Carlos Medlock Jr., F Kaleb Glenn, C Ethan Taylor, F Jesse McCulloch, G Jasiah Jervis

3. Michigan

Breakdown: It's unrealistic to expect Michigan's sequel to be anything similar to one of the most dominant teams in the modern era of college basketball. This Michigan defense will take a step back after being a ridiculous fortress. That's what happens when you lose three lottery picks in Yaxel Lendeborg, Aday Mara and Morez Johnson Jr., who just happened to be three of the best five defenders in the Big Ten.

Slippage is imminent, but there is a real path to being a top-15 team again because this starting lineup projects to be one of the best in the league, even after a devastating season-ending knee injury to five-star freshman Brandon McCoy. Elliot Cadeau is one of the best five point guards in the sport. Trey McKenney shot 38% from 3-point range, 58% on midrange jumpers and 60% at the rim last year. With a much bigger role, McKenney is poised to chase All-American heights. Rugged defender Roddy Gayle is trying to return to Michigan for a fifth season of eligibility, and he'll start at the 3 if the judicial system concurs. The new-look frontcourt of Tennessee transfer JP Estrella and Cincinnati transfer Moustapha Thiam were hand-picked by Dusty May, who has an impeccable eye for talent. Estrella will be productive, but Thiam could be a menacing two-way star in this scheme, as long as he can chill out on taking every single jumper possible and get back to Hulk-smashing lobs from Cadeau.

That starting five is full of veteran, two-way players who have played a ton of high-major basketball. Michigan's depth questions are obvious, but it won't be that big of a deal, especially if freshman forward Quinn Costello can drill 3-pointers and Danish 7-3 center Marcus Møller continues his upward trajectory to land the backup center gig.

Michigan won't win the National Championship this year because this roster doesn't have Juke Harris (who verbally committed to Michigan before recanting and landing at Tennessee) and McCoy, its dynamic five-star, who blew out his knee before he could play in a game that counts. Two more future NBA players would've made this Michigan roster undeniable. Instead, this is just a really good team that lost its one-of-one coach to the Dallas Mavericks.

It is what it is.

Projected starting lineup

G Elliot Cadeau
G Trey McKenney
G Roddy Gayle Jr. (if eligible)
F JP Estrella (Tennessee transfer)
C Moustapha Thiam (Cincinnati transfer)

Top reserves: F Jalen Reed, F Quinn Costello, G Ricky Liburd, C Marcus Møller, G Kenny Noland (if eligible), F Oscar Goodman

4. UCLA

Breakdown: Retention mixed with a couple good transfers and some talented freshmen is the recipe. UCLA copied that blueprint this spring. Trent Perry, Eric Dailey Jr. and Xavier Booker all returned, and UCLA complemented them nicely with automatic Texas Tech transfer Jaylen Petty and five-star freshman wing Nikola Kusturica, who has the nastiness, competitive juice and love of defense to embrace life under the fiery Mick Cronin. Kusturica is only 17 years old, but he's on the fast track to potentially be the No. 1 or No. 2 pick in the 2028 NBA Draft.

If UCLA wants to contend, it needs this offense to be a top-20 unit. All five starters for UCLA can shoot it, but I'm curious who transforms into the true fulcrum of this team. Petty is primed to get way more on-ball work at UCLA, but the Bruins have some buttons they can press offensively using Dailey and Kusturica as jumbo initiators, too.

There are some questions about UCLA's rim protection, but some of the offseason additions should buff up the Bruins' perimeter defense and Cronin's defensive schemes do a nice job of limiting paint touches anyways. Freshman Joe Philon and Butler transfer Azavier 'Stink' Robinson are plus defenders, and Auburn transfer Filip Jovic is also a maniac on the glass to help generate more possessions.

Stacking bites at the apple is the name of the game. Perry, Dailey and Booker should all be better because guys who stay for Cronin tend to improve, and if the bets on Petty and Kusturica come to fruition, there's more than enough here in the cupboard to contend for a second weekend appearance … or something even loftier if Kusturica is playing like an NBA player at the right time of the calendar.

Projected starting lineup

G Trent Perry
G Jaylen Petty (Texas Tech transfer)
F Nikola Kusturica
F Eric Dailey Jr.
C Xavier Booker

Top reserves: F Filip Jovic, G Azavier Robinson, F Brandon Williams, G Eric Freeny, F Joe Philon, F Sergej Macura, G Gunars Grinvalds

5. USC

Breakdown: USC has so many dudes who are on the NBA's radar. This is an enticing collection of talent with bucket-getting lead guards, big wings, skilled bigs and lots of depth.

The pecking order will be everything. Is this Rodney Rice's team? The lead guard was phenomenal for the Trojans last year before suffering a cruel season-ending shoulder injury. Can he return to the peak of his powers? What about Alijah Arenas? The former five-star fought through a ton of adversity to get back on the floor last year and showed some high highs (and the greenest light in America). Georgetown transfer KJ Lewis is no slouch, and Jacob Cofie is returning for a second season in L.A., trying to prove to NBA decision-makers that he can be one of the best two-way forwards in this league.

I think those four can play really well together, if they stay unselfish. Cofie and Lewis are plus defenders at their respective positions. They both can legitimately guard four or five positions. Arenas and Rice can both score in their sleep. Building trust that they can get off the ball and get it back in even better situations will be essential. If this turns into "your turn, my turn" offense, I think most opposing defensive coordinators would live with that.

The center spot could make-or-break USC, though. UConn transfer Eric Reibe is on the mend after foot surgery, opening up minutes for Adonis or Darius Ratliff. The prized freshmen bigs can space the floor and have plenty of skill, but will they be physical enough to guard opposing 5s? Or will USC have to go small with top-10 freshman Christian Collins getting inserted into the fray and downshifting Cofie to a small-ball 5?

Eric Musselman has options and talent galore, but role definition and sacrifice will determine whether USC's collection of talent can coalesce into a contender. If USC plays selfish basketball, it won't win anything of substance.

Projected starting lineup

G Rodney Rice
G KJ Lewis (Georgetown transfer)
G Alijah Arenas
F Jacob Cofie
C Eric Reibe (UConn transfer)

Top reserves: F Christian Collins, G Jalen Cox, F Darius Ratliff, F Adonis Ratliff, G Jadis Jones, G Isaac Bruns, G Aaron Hunkin-Claytor, F Joshua Hughes

6. Nebraska

Breakdown: Fred Hoiberg hit a grand slam with the Pryce Sandfort evaluation in the portal, and now he gets a second year with the best shooter in the league. Sandfort could easily become an All-American because he has way more in his bag than just the purest jumper in the Big Ten. Add in the return of slashing sophomore Braden Frager, and getting buckets shouldn't be a problem for this iteration of Nebraska basketball.

But the defense is going to take a significant step back after losing outstanding defensive pieces like Sam Hoiberg, Berke Buyuktuncel, Rienk Mast and even Jamarques Lawrence. There's almost a 0% chance that Nebraska is a top-10 defense again with this personnel.

Offense is how Hoiberg has to make up ground. Belmont transfer Sam Orme is a strong fit in this scheme because the 6-10 forward can pass, dribble and really shoot. Boston College transfer center Boden Kapke is another highly skilled frontcourt piece, and Utah Valley transfer point guard Trevan Leonhardt adds a third high-feel, high-skill option to the starting lineup.

All five guys in Nebraska's first unit can pass, dribble, shoot and, most importantly, think. That's essential in a Hoiberg offense that has some Dan Hurley-like layers of off-ball actions. Hoiberg can cut defenses apart, literally and figuratively. Nebraska rated in the 99th percentile in efficiency off cuts last year.

Nebraska will be very big this year, and it has real-deal size all the way down to its 10th man. No rotation player is under 6-4. It's just not quite as physically imposing this year. I think the rebounding and defense will take a bit of a step back, but Nebraska has a potential All-American, an elite offensive head coach and a no-middle defensive scheme that limits layups as well as anybody. That's the fabric of another Big Dance appearance.

Projected starting lineup

G Trevan Leonhardt (Utah Valley transfer)
G Braden Frager
G Pryce Sandfort
F Sam Orme (Belmont transfer)
F Boden Kapke (Boston College transfer)

Top reserves: G Connor Essegian, G Cale Jacobsen, F Damon Wilkinson, G Taj DeGourville, C Leo Curtis, F Colin Rice, G Jacob Lanier

7. Ohio State

Breakdown: Ohio State's trio of Juni Mobley, Amare Bynum and five-star freshman Anthony Thompson is nothing to scoff at. Mobley will be in the chase to lead the Big Ten in 3-pointers, Bynum is an inside-out thumper, and Thompson is a 6-9 wing who has a strap. Thompson has shot the cover off the rock at every level of high school basketball and will be a lottery pick if everything goes according to plan.

Jake Diebler has also buffed up his depth considerably. Justin Pippen and Curtis Givens III are high-major transfer guards who can play on or off the ball. Duquesne transfer Jimmie Williams averaged over 15 points per game and flashed a mature game in the Atlantic 10. He can play at this level. So can skilled forward Andrija Jelavic, who charted to Columbus after a wonky first year of college basketball in Lexington.

The X factor is the health of big man Josh Ojianwuna, who has not played a game since Feb. 8, 2025, due to a brutal leg injury. It's impossible to win Big Ten games without serviceable center play, and Ohio State needs Ojianwuna to stay healthy, be good on defense and get back to being a menace on the offensive glass.

Ohio State very clearly looks like an NCAA Tournament team again because its Big Three is too good and it has nine or 10 high-major rotation players on the roster this year, instead of six like a year ago.

Projected starting lineup

G Justin Pippen (Cal transfer)
G Juni Mobley
F Anthony Thompson
F Amare Bynum
F Josh Ojianwuna

Top reserves: G Jimmie Williams, G Curtis Givens III, F Andrija Jelavic, G LJ Smith, C Ivan Njegovan

8. Purdue

Breakdown: Role allocation will be everything for a Purdue roster that's full of familiar faces but lost Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer, Trey Kaufman-Renn and Oscar Cluff.

Who starts at point guard? Sophomore Omer Mayer was promised the first crack, but freshman Luke Ertel is a dude.

Who does Purdue start at the 4? Beefy Frenchman Enzo Shahrvin is the rebounder this roster needs, but will Matt Painter prefer more perimeter skill and slashing from Princeton transfer Caden Pierce?

Who starts at the 3? Gicarri Harris or Jack Benter are battling for time there.

Redshirt freshman guard Antione West Jr. has seemingly been a God when only the who's-who are watching in practice. Will that stick when nearly 15,000 are stuffed to the gills at Mackey?

Massive personnel questions are littered throughout the roster and could change the complexion of the season.

Junior guard CJ Cox is a superb two-way player, and there's enough depth to figure this out in the backcourt. But there's no one on the roster who can reach Daniel Jacobsen's ceiling. The table is set for the 7-4 center to be a dominant two-way weapon who can block shots, step out and shoot a triple and be a dunk machine as a roller and rim-runner. It's time to turn potential into production. If Jacobsen transforms into one of the best three centers in this league, ranking Purdue eighth could age quite poorly.

Projected starting lineup

G Omer Mayer
G CJ Cox
F Jack Benter
F Caden Pierce (Princeton transfer)
C Daniel Jacobsen

Top reserves: G Gicarri Harris, G Luke Ertel, G Antione West Jr., F Raleigh Burgess, G Jacob Webber, C Sinan Huan, F Enzo Shahrvin

9. Indiana

Breakdown: Indiana's rotation last year was a collaboration of players who started their respective collegiate careers at Three Rivers Junior College, Chattanooga, Davidson, Drake, Grayson Junior College, North Florida and Elon. The Hoosiers finished with a putrid -17 net rating against top-50 teams.

Indiana's rotation this year is an alliance of hoopers who started their careers at Notre Dame, Duke, Alabama, SMU, Georgia Tech and Texas A&M.

Spot the difference?

Darian DeVries paid up in the portal to find five new starters, largely from high-major leagues, and the Hoosiers' won't be manhandled in the paint this time with 6-11 Alabama transfer Aiden Sherrell and 7-2 mountain Samet Yigitoglu manning the middle. Sherrell is the coup here. Size, skill, mobility, touch, rim protection with a little playmaking? He's one of the best stretch bigs that has donned Indiana threads in years.

But Markus Burton has to stay healthy for Indiana to reach the peak of its powers. The 6-foot guard from Notre Dame has missed significant chunks of two straight seasons. When healthy, Burton is a paint-touch machine who can create something out of nothing. Burton is so important because the rest of Indiana's talented backcourt collection will be so much more potent if they don't have to shoulder the primary ball-handler burden. You'd see more catch-and-shoot opportunities for Duke transfer Darren Harris, who can be a net-shredder. You'd see more long closeout opportunities for Georgia Tech transfer Jaeden Mustaf, who sneakily graded out as one of the best drivers in the ACC last year. Talented but inconsistent Villanova transfer Bryce Lindsay, who oscillates between white-hot or AWOL, wouldn't have to be the man for this backcourt if Burton is ready to roll. Same thing goes for prized freshmen guards like Vaughn Karvala and Prince-Alexander Moody.

You get the point.

Sherrell is Indiana's best player, but Burton may be the most important. If those two are All-Big Ten talents, this supporting cast has more than enough size, skill and shooting to make Indiana a real threat to finish top-5 in the league, even if the perimeter defense may not be elite.

Projected starting lineup

G Markus Burton (Notre Dame transfer)
G Bryce Lindsay (Villanova transfer)
G Jaeden Mustaf (Georgia Tech transfer)
F Aiden Sherrell (Alabama transfer)
C Samet Yigitoglu (SMU transfer)

Top reserves: G Darren Harris, F Trent Sisley, G Prince-Alexander Moody, G Vaughn Karvala, F Sam Alexis (if eligible), F Trevor Manhertz

10. Iowa

Breakdown: Iowa got big boy'd a few too many times during Big Ten play and again in the Elite Eight loss to rival Illinois, so Ben McCollum did something about it. Iowa reeled in 7-3 Saint Mary's transfer Andrew McKeever, who single-handedly can vacuum-clean the glass. That means Iowa can start 6-7, do-it-all wing Tate Sage, 6-8 sniper Cooper Koch and 6-9 dirty-work forward Cam Manyawu next to the second-tallest player in the Big Ten.

That's an enormous team, and that doesn't include a second unit that features talented, skilled bigs like Trey Thompson and Trevin Jirak who wisely stuck around to see the fruits of their labor after a year of seasoning in the McCollum think tank.

Better rebounding, more second-chance points and much-improved rim protection is how Iowa can tweak its game plan to replace the irreplaceable Bennett Stirtz. The Hawkeyes saved some dough in the backcourt — they're recruiting 5-star Cayden Daughtry, who is worth every penny — so McCollum needs Kael Combs and Illinois State transfer Ty'Reek Coleman to get up to speed quickly with bigger roles.

Plenty of people expect Iowa to be worse this year without Stirtz. I think the added size could make 'em better as long as the guard play isn't a disaster.

Projected starting lineup

G Kael Combs
G Tate Sage
F Cooper Koch
F Cam Manyawu
C Andrew McKeever (Saint Mary's transfer)

Top reserves: G Ty'Reek Coleman, G Isaia Howard, F Trey Thompson, F Trevin Jirak, F Ethan Harris, G Jaidyn Coon

11. Maryland

Breakdown: Maryland desperately needs to play a basketball game to officially turn the page after a 12-21 debacle. Maryland finished 119th nationally on kenpom.com, the worst finish since 2012 for a proud basketball regime. Maryland's defense allowed 1.27 points per possession against top-50 teams last year; that ranked dead last (365th!) in all of college basketball. So much for Buzz Williams making a good first impression.

Williams got off the mat by being one of the most aggressive free-agency spenders in the Big Ten, revamping the roster around a nasty frontcourt that will hit the boards every single trip. Fifth-year senior center Pharrel Payne is healthy again and figures to be one of the top big men in the country. Remember, Payne was a 17-point, seven-rebound contributor a year ago before suffering an awful season-ending leg injury. New Mexico transfer Tomislav Buljan, now 23, will sidle up next to Payne to form a double-big lineup of grizzled veterans who will stomp opponents into submission with physicality.

That's the backbone of this team, and those two elite rebounders should raise Maryland's floor considerably on both ends. Winning the shot-volume game shouldn't be a problem for these Terps.

The ceiling case hinges on five-star freshman wing Baba Oladotun, budding sophomore scoring dynamo Andre Mills and Arkansas transfer point guard DJ Wagner, another former five-star recruit in another life, who is trying to resurrect his career after getting demoted by John Calipari for the brilliant Darius Acuff. Oladotun is only 17 years old after reclassifying (he will turn 18 in December), but the 6-10 string-bean is dripping in potential. How quickly will it turn into production? Patience may be required here for one of the youngest players in the Big Ten who needs to pack on weight and will have to rely on a tough shot diet in an offensive scheme that won't have a ton of spacing and historically does not generate a ton of easy looks.

Maryland should be much improved because it accumulated way more quality depth and optionality. Williams will be able to trot out some really nasty defensive lineups when Tennessee transfer Bishop Boswell checks into the game to hound opposing lead guards. Top-50 freshman guard Kaden House is another real-deal talent, who should factor into this rotation as a high-energy, second-unit bucket-getter. Maryland's bench also has shooting options (Michael McNair and Maban Gabriel) with a bit of thump, headlined by rugged forwards George Turkson Jr. and Robert Jennings.

The Terps will be much better because when you rebound like this, there are pathways to being a top-40 offense and top-40 defense. With the new 76-team field, I'd be stunned this isn't a tournament team. Some extremely uncomfortable conversations would be warranted in that doomsday scenario.

Projected starting lineup

G DJ Wagner (Arkansas transfer)
G Andre Mills
F Baba Oladotun
F Tomislav Buljan (New Mexico transfer)
C Pharrel Payne

Top reserves: G Bishop Boswell, G Michael McNair, F Robert Jennings, F George Turkson Jr., F Maban Jabriel, G Kaden House

12. Wisconsin

Breakdown: Wisconsin has the personnel to be one of the Big Ten's best 3-point shooting teams. Its entire starting lineup can stop and pop on a dime, but the talent level has decreased in Madison after losing stud point guard Nick Boyd to graduation and star shooting guard John Blackwell to money-bags Duke. Australian point guard Owen Foxwell's translation into the Big Ten will determine whether Wisconsin is a NCAA Tournament team for the fourth year in a row. The 23-year-old lefty is a crafty pick-and-roll savant who can really pass, and he's completely unafraid to get to his floater against drop coverage. Wisconsin will spread the floor with shooters and rely heavily on Foxwell carving up Big Ten defenses. It may not work quite as well as Boyd and Blackwell, but it can be effective.

But the Badgers have to get a bit better on the margins to be a real contender in the Big Ten. Miami (Ohio) transfer Eian Elmer rated in the 99th percentile in pick-and-roll efficiency last year, but it was on super low volume (42 possessions). Wisconsin is prepared to play him on the ball even more. Can he become Blackwell-lite to complement Foxwell, who is Diet Boyd?

The backcourt renovation shouldn't overshadow the fact that Nolan Winter chose to run it back. The senior 7-footer is one of the best bigs in this league. He can run, shoot and deck it. Taking another step defensively has to be a priority, and Winter is a huge part of that calculus. This offense may not be top-10 good again, so to make up for it, the Badgers have to find some answers defensively after rating 56th nationally in efficiency. Elmer was one of the best perimeter defenders in the mid-major ranks last season, and Hofstra transfer big man Victory Onuetu rated third in the CAA in block percentage. Those should be useful additions. Braeden Carrington winning a fifth year of eligibility would help out this defensive outlook, too.

Wisconsin feels like a team that can beat anybody on the nights its 3s are going in but could be a bit vulnerable on a night-to-night basis because nearly 50% of its shots could come from beyond the arc. UW feels one piece short from being a true player in this league, but this player-development program always seems to have someone in the hopper. Maybe it's Hayden Jones or Will Garlock? Regardless, the Badgers will be in the mix to make the tourney in a 76-team field. Its margin for error is just way slimmer this year.

Projected starting lineup

G Owen Foxwell
G Trey Autry (George Washington transfer)
G Eian Elmer (Miami Ohio transfer)
F Austin Rapp
F Nolan Winter

Top reserves: G Jack Janicki, C Victory Onuetu, G Hayden Jones, F Will Garlock, G Zach Kinziger, G Jackson Ball, G Braeden Carrington (if eligible)

13. Oregon

Breakdown: This Oregon roster is a treasure trove of unknowns. The Ducks are full of former prized recruits who have parachuted to Eugene looking for the opportunity to be The Man. Kentucky transfer guard Jasper Johnson and Arizona transfer wing Dwayne Aristode have top-30 recruit pedigree but averaged under 5.0 points a game a season ago.

On the bright side, Oregon's rotation is much deeper. It has far more two-way wings who could help this defense get back to being multiple. Altman should be able to unleash some full-court pressure again with a much deeper squad. Turning defense to offense would be ideal because I wonder who the force multiplier is on this roster. Who will make others better? The creation questions on this roster start with point guard Fred Payne, who is more scorer than creator, continue with Johnson, who is also more scorer than creator, and seep through the rest of the roster.

Tyrone Riley IV, Sean Stewart and Andrew Meadow are nice pieces individually, but they need a conductor to be the best version of themselves. If Oregon can't find that unselfish, set-the-table creator, it's in danger of missing the dance again.

Projected starting lineup

G Fred Payne (Boston College transfer)
G Jasper Johnson (Kentucky transfer)
G Tyrone Riley IV (San Francisco transfer)
F Dwayne Aristode (Arizona transfer)
F Sean Stewart

Top reserves: G Andrew Meadow, F Taylor Bol Bowen, F Pharaoh Compton, G Wei Lin, G Jerry Easter II, F Tajh Ariza, C Malique Ewin (if eligible)

14. Minnesota

Breakdown: Minnesota has not been to the NCAA Tournament since 2019, but this group has the talent to snap that streak ... if Cade Tyson can get a fifth year of eligibility. The 6-7 wing transformed into the best version of himself in Niko Medved's Princeton-style offense, and Minnesota is hoping to do that again with guard Kyan Evans, who flamed out at North Carolina just like Tyson.

If Tyson is cleared, Minnesota's starting lineup has some juice. Evans and Isaac Asuma are both good enough shooters to play on or off the ball. Tyson is a stud, and Jaylen Crocker-Johnson (13.4 points, 6.8 rebounds) was a total warrior. Oh, and Minnesota got way bigger this year with 7-2 Michigan transfer Malick Kordel added to the mix after taking his licks guarding Morez Johnson Jr. and Aday Mara last year.

This is a real team under a coach in Medved who is one of the sharpest in the business.

Projected starting lineup

G Kyan Evans (North Carolina transfer)
G Isaac Asuma
G Cade Tyson (if eligible)
F Jaylen Crocker-Johnson
C Malick Kordel (Michigan transfer)

Top reserves: F Bobby Durkin, F Grayson Grove, G Malachi Palmer, G Nolan Groves, G Winters Grady, F Nolen Anderson, G Kai Shinholster

15. Washington

Breakdown: Washington did not quite have as much buying power as before, so this roster is leaning heavily on LeJuan Watts and Wesley Yates III returning to form. At their best, both Watts and Yates can be All-Big Ten talents, but Watts struggled with the physicality of the Big 12, and Yates had the worst shooting season of his life after a nagging wrist injury.

Yates returning to wrecking-ball status mixed with Watts getting back into his comfort zone as a mismatch-hunting, bootyball savant is the path to competency here.

San Francisco transfer point guard Ryan Beasley will be rock-solid, but the X factor is a new-look frontcourt. Sophomore Nikola Dzepina and junior Lathan Sommerville are slated for the biggest opportunities of their careers. Dzepina showed some real flashes, but UW needs his rim protection to be real because that's not ever going to be a big part of Sommerville's game. But Sommerville can pack a punch as an interior bucket-getter. If the decision-making gets cleaned up, Sommerville can be quite effective in this scenario. Hopefully some Derik Queen film was at the top of Sommerville's YouTube search history.

Hannes Steinbach, you are missed.

Projected starting lineup

Top reserves: F Steele Venters, C Mady Traore, G Tayshawn Comer (if eligible), F Wini Braga, G Parker Friedrichsen, G Tristan Devers, G Jasir Rencher, G Harun Zrno

16. Rutgers

Breakdown: Here's to hoping Steve Pikiell and his family can find some peace and strength while the Rutgers head coach continues his fight against the evil scourge that is cancer.

Now, to basketball.

Cash-strapped Rutgers quietly did some good things this spring, retaining 17-point-per-game scorer Tariq Francis, Darren Buchanan Jr. and some promising young guards. It also added both shooting and size in the portal. Virginia Tech transfer Christian Gurdak and Kansas State transfer Dorin Buca should platoon at the 5 for Rutgers, and both Coastal Carolina sharpshooter RaSheed Jones and Central Connecticut jumbo wing Darin Smith Jr. shot over 36% from downtown last year on real volume.

A Buchanan-Gurdak frontcourt duo is physical and can get after it on the glass. If you're going to play multiple frontcourt pieces who don't space the floor, you need guards who can create something out of nothing, and that's Francis' game to a T.

The problem is that Rutgers can be much better and still not close to the bubble. There are a ton of guys on this roster who were part of a team that went 2-19 against top-100 teams last year with a disturbing -16.2 net rating. Even with a decent portal haul, it takes some serious rose-colored glasses to envision this group flirting with a .500 finish in this brute of a league.

Projected starting lineup

G Tariq Francis
G Lino Mark
G Rasheed Jones (Coastal Carolina transfer)
F Darren Buchanan Jr.
C Christian Gurdak (Virginia Tech transfer)

Top reserves: G Jamichael Davis, F Will Sydnor, F Darin Smith Jr., G Kaden Powers, C Dorin Buca, F Diego Garavaglia

17. Northwestern

Breakdown: Northwestern does not have a ton of resources to make a dent in the portal, so it was forced to mine the mid-major ranks to construct a team after program legend Nick Martinelli graduated and a horde of contributors departed via the portal.

Thankfully, rising sophomore point guard Jake West looks like a keeper. TikTok made West famous, but he quietly left a strong impression on rival Big Ten coaches and should be the man here. Skilled Bellarmine transfer Jack Karasinki will try to give his best Martinelli impression, and Northwestern should have a collection of big guards/wings like Angelo Ciarvino, Colin Smith and LA Pratt to keep trapping and causing chaos defensively.

You just have to wonder how far a Mid-Major, All-Star team can survive in the Big Ten. Just ask Indiana how that went last year with a way more expensive roster.

Projected starting lineup

G Jake West
G LA Pratt (Northeastern transfer)
F Jack Karasinki (Bellarmine transfer)
F Angelo Ciaravino
C Luke McEldon (Mount St. Mary's transfer)

Top reserves: F Colin Smith, G Aleksej Kostic, F Okku Federiko, F Jayden Hodge, F Ryan Soulis

18. Penn State

Breakdown: Penn State's inability to retain Kayden Mingo, the highest-rated recruit in program history, was a bummer. It's also hard to win games these days without any rim protection. Top-100 teams shot 67% at the rim against Penn State last year. That ranked 364th out of 365 squads at the Division I level.

Send help.

Penn State's best defense this year may be an offense that puts the ball in the bucket. Penn State really prioritized Miami Ohio wing Brant Byers, who drilled 63 triples at a 38% clip last season. Big man Ivan Juric could sniff 15 points a game, especially if his perimeter game takes another step. Davidson transfer Roberts Blums has been a pleasant surprise in the preseason, and Mike Rhoades has a double-barrel point guard room with veteran defender Dasonte Bowen and Jay Rodgers, who was one of the most productive pick-and-roll guards at the mid-major ranks last year.

Penn State's defensive outlook comes down to these three variables: Josh Reed gets a fifth year of eligibility, Bowen turns the water off on opposing lead guards and shot-blocking Buffalo transfer Tim Oboh proves he can be trusted to stay on the floor.

Projected starting lineup

PG Jay Rodgers (Central Connecticut transfer) OR PG Dasonte Bowen (St. Bonaventure transfer)
G Roberts Blums (Davidson transfer)
F Brant Byers (Miami Ohio transfer)
F Josh Reed (if eligible)
F Ivan Juric

Top reserves: F Roko Prkacin, C Tim Oboh, F Thomas Allard, F Francois Wibaut