The Big 12 remains the most upwardly mobile league in major football, where anything feels possible
By Shehan Jeyarajah May 20, 2026 at 11:48 am ET • 6 min read 
Getty Images It's never been more difficult to project the Big 12. There are a few proven contenders at the top, but nearly every other team in the conference has a dark horse shot at competing at the highest level.
The conference remains the most upwardly (and downwardly) mobile conference in America. Eight of the last nine title games have featured a new team. Arizona State flipped from 3-9 to Big 12 champs, only to fall back to eight wins. Baylor was a Big 12 contender entering last year, only to miss a bowl game.
With that in mind, we're going through and evaluating the field at the conclusion of spring ball. Luckily, eliminating the post-spring portal removes yet another unproven variable for us to evaluate.
Keep in mind, power rankings are more than just a pure list of projected final records. They help contextualize which teams are trending in each direction after the spring. Here's how we view the league midway through May.
Odds to win the 2026 Big 12 championship provided via FanDuel Sportsbook.
1. BYU
The Cougars have been one of the standard-bearers in the conference over the past two years, and Texas Tech's confusing quarterback situation creates an opening. BYU ranks among the national leaders in returning production, with potential All-Americans at running back (LJ Martin), safety (Faletau Satuala) and linebacker (Isaiah Glasker). If the stars can align, the Cougars can return to the Big 12 title game for the second straight season and even win the league. Odds: +550
2. Texas Tech
The Red Raiders had the worst offseason of any Big 12 team after losing quarterback Brendan Sorsby to a gambling investigation. But with the quality of players coming back, the Red Raiders are still -- at worst -- co-favorites. Defensively, Texas Tech is the class of the conference after adding a stacked defensive line class via the portal. The offensive line could be one of the nation's best. If quarterback Will Hammond progresses as expected from injury, Texas Tech will be back at No. 1 by the fall. Odds: +110
Brendan Sorsby files injunction vs. NCAA: Texas Tech QB seeks 2026 eligibility amid gambling probe Brad Crawford
3. Houston
The Coogs are riding high after getting to 10 wins faster than anyone could have expected under Willie Fritz. Now heading into Year 3, Houston returns a large portion of the roster and adds an encouraging transfer class. If quarterback Conner Weigman can take the step from serviceable to great, they can sneak their way into Big 12 title contention. Odds: +1500
4. Arizona
After a rocky first season, Brent Brennan got the Wildcats back on track. Quarterback Noah Fifita is back as the presumed top quarterback in the Big 12, and offensive coordinator Seth Doege is a rising star in the industry. If the Wildcats can again find a strong running game, another step is possible. Odds: +2200
5. Utah
The Utes remain high in the Big 12 preseason odds, but the Utes will look much different from the 11-win squad of last season. The entire offensive line is off to the NFL, and several key defenders followed former coach Kyle Whittingham to Michigan. There's still plenty of high-end talent in Salt Lake City, but growing pains should be expected. Odds: +750
6. TCU
Could the Horned Frogs be a sneaky Big 12 contender? The Horned Frogs return multiple starting offensive linemen and more than half of their defense from a roster that ranks among the most talented in the conference. Transfer quarterback Jaden Craig is a breakout star in the making under quarterback guru Sonny Dykes. TCU's success will hinge on a revamped running game under first-year offensive coordinator Gordon Sammis. Promising running back Jeremy Payne could be the swing player. If he delivers, so can the Frogs. Odds: +1900
7. Arizona State
Kenny Dillingham's squad suffered injuries last season but still finished with eight wins and a 6-3 mark in Big 12 play. Losing stars Jordyn Tyson and Sam Leavitt is a hit, but WR Omarion Miller (Colorado) and QB Cutter Boley (Kentucky) showed real promise at their last spots. Defensive tackle C.J. Fite leads a rebuilding defense. Odds: +2000
8. Oklahoma State
The Cowboys finished in the Big 12 basement last season, and jumping eight spots may not even be enough. First-year coach Eric Morris brought top-50 transfers QB Drew Mestemaker, RB Caleb Hawkins and WR Wyatt Young from North Texas. The Cowboys were also aggressive in the transfer portal, adding numerous linemen with Power Four pedigree. If the offensive line can mesh, the Cowboys could be back quickly. Odds: +2500
9. Kansas State
The Wildcats are one of the more interesting teams in the conference. First-year coach Collin Klein should get the most out of uber-talented quarterback Avery Johnson, and six starters are back for the Wildcats on offense. The defense is a bigger question under Jordan Peterson, who will call a defense for only the second season of his career. Vegas is giving Kansas State's program reputation a lot of credit; fourth-best odds are a little too much. Odds: +1100
10. Kansas
The Jayhawks are at a crossroads after a third seven-loss season in four years. The quarterback competition between Isaiah Marshall and Cole Ballard remains open, with no clear answer, and the defense remains an inconsistent unit. The return of assistant coach Andy Kotelnicki should help bring some stability, but it's hard to find obvious star power on a team that needs it. Odds: +3000
11. Baylor
The Dave Aranda era, somehow, continues into Year 7, but there are a few reasons for intrigue. Of course, former five-star quarterback DJ Lagway returns to the school where his father starred in the '90s. Defensive coordinator Joe Klanderman is a steady hand to help revive the defense. Baylor's transfer class wasn't star-studded, but featured plenty of talent. Is this the group that finally gets them back on track? Odds: +3500
12. UCF
The Knights were quietly competitive in Scott Frost's return to Orlando, and his presence is paying dividends. UCF returns 10 starters from last year, including six from an underrated defense. Top receivers Waden Charles and Duane Thomas Jr. are also back, and pair with James Madison QB transfer Alonza Barnett III. Ironically, it's really Frost's signature offense that needs to grow. The Knights finished No. 12 in the Big 12 in total yardage. Odds: +4000
13. Cincinnati
Losing quarterback Brendan Sorsby to the portal was a big deal, but it could be a blessing in disguise after his NCAA issues in Lubbock. Instead, the Bearcats are looking at a stacked offensive line group -- led by star guard Evan Tengesdahl -- and a pretty interesting transfer class. The wide receivers are most interesting, led by former HBCU star JV Gibson. Can Georgia Southern transfer JC French IV get him the ball? Odds: +10000
14. West Virginia
More than 150 players have walked through West Virginia's facility since Rich Rodriguez returned last year, but the talent keeps getting more interesting. Running back transfer Cam Cook led the nation in rushing last year at Jacksonville State, and quarterbacks Scotty Fox Jr. and Michael Hawkins Jr. will compete to flank him in the backfield. The defense under Zac Alley is the team's biggest growth area. A step will come, but will it be this year? Odds: +4000
15. Colorado
The Buffaloes were a mess in 2025 and still have some serious questions. Quarterback transfer Isaac Wilson pushed Julian Lewis in the spring, so the passing game should be improved. In the trenches, though, Colorado is still looking for answers. First-year offensive coordinator Brennan Marion could help invigorate the offense, but finding depth won't be easy. Odds: +10000
16. Iowa State
The Cyclones have an encouraging roster, but the turnover is hard to ignore after a coaching change. Iowa State is the only Power Four team to not return a single starter from last season. I look forward to seeing how Jimmy Rogers proves us all wrong. Odds: +7000
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