Baker Mayfield says Buccaneers are ready to surprise critics in 2026, why he could be right

Not much has gone the way of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers over the last 10 months. Between a tremendously disappointing second half of the 2025 season, key personnel departures, questions about the coaching staff's future and a contract standoff involving the team's starting quarterback, there is not much room for optimism heading into 2026. Unless you ask Baker Mayfield.

Baker Mayfield still has his sights set on a prolific year. Perhaps every blow the Buccaneers suffered and all of the noise surrounding them will fuel him to deliver just that.

"I think we're going to shock a lot of people this year," Mayfield said Tuesday after practice. "I'm excited to just get on the road and do that."

Mayfield is deeply familiar with critics and regularly proves them wrong. He has done so at every stage of his football career.

After finishing high school as an underrecruited prospect, Mayfield at Texas Tech became the first FBS walk-on true freshman quarterback to start a season opener. At Oklahoma, be shined as the only former walk-on to ever win the Heisman Trophy. While some said his antics and physical shortcomings would prevent him from finding professional success, he flew off the draft board as the No. 1 overall pick in 2018 and is now a two-time Pro Bowler.

The moral is to count Mayfield out at your own risk. He seems to thrive on adversity, and he and the Buccaneers face no shortage of it ahead of the 2026 season.

Skepticism for Buccaneers' upcoming season abounds

Everything that plagued Tampa Bay from the middle of last season onward led to widespread pessimism for their 2026 outlook. Good luck finding many pundits who foresee the Buccaneers doing anything beyond treading water in the NFL's weakest division.

"You can't avoid it," Mayfield said of the negative discourse. "There's TVs everywhere."

From their Week 9 bye last season onward, the Buccaneers went just 2-7 and sustained losing streaks of three and four games. The offense regressed into being far too schematic and predictable, and the defense was not strong enough to bail it out. A team that seemed destined for the postseason limped across the finish line in a division where no team logged a winning record.

Then came a slew of moves that, in aggregate, seem to lower the Buccaneers' ceiling. An offensive coordinator change makes Zac Robinson the fourth different play-caller Mayfield will have operated with in four years in Tampa Bay. Franchise legends Lavonte David and Mike Evans are gone following the former's retirement and the latter's exit in free agency.

Even some of the players who remain on the roster are discontented. In addition to Mayfield's own contract gripes, standout defensive tackle Vita Vea is at odds with the front office. The Buccaneers faced a concerning start to training camp when Vea requested a trade, and he has yet to practice as he conducts a hold-in while in search of a contract extension or a move out of town.

Yet, amid all the turmoil, Mayfield said he is confident his team will catch people by surprise.

"Hell yeah, I am," Mayfield said. "Everybody's picking us probably to have a losing record. We'll see."

How Baker Mayfield's own adversity sparks bounce-back year

Last year was Mayfield's worst since joining the Buccaneers in 2023. After he earned the first two Pro Bowl selections of his career, finished third in Comeback Player of the Year voting and even emerged as an MVP dark horse over his first two years in Tampa Bay, he logged the lowest completion rate and fewest passing yards and touchdowns of his tenure in 2025.

Baker Mayfield by year in Tampa Bay

2023

64.3

4,044

28

10

94.6

2024

71.4

4,500

41

16

106.8

2025

63.2

3,693

26

11

90.6

The front office clearly wants to see Mayfield turn things around before it invests in his long-term future. This is the final year of his contract, and while he wants an extension, the team did not meet his demands in time to get a deal done. The quarterback wanted the contract finalized before training camp, said he would not negotiate during the season, and is now set to play out his final year with no future guarantees.

Mayfield wants to join the $50 million-per-year club, and he said the offers he received from the team were "pretty far" from that echelon. In the weeks since training camp opened, Mayfield has been outward with his frustration. He said he feels "disrespected" and that the team is undervaluing what he brings to the table as a franchise quarterback.

Time and time again over the last decade and a half, Mayfield disproved his detractors. To give him a multi-million-dollar chip on his shoulder -- in addition to the one that exists because of the team's perceived weakness -- is like feeding raw meat to a starving wolf. It could give him the kindling he needs to blaze his way to a bounce-back campaign.