Last week, I wrote about excellent Houston right-handed pitcher Hunter Brown, and that it was hard to know what the 2026 Astros truly were until he got back healthy and in rhythm. I can probably say the same thing about the Blue Jays and righty Shane Bieber. The 2020 AL Cy Young winner (with Cleveland) makes his season debut today against the visiting Astros. It's a 4:07 p.m. ET first pitch from Rogers Centre – the only matinee today.
Astros vs. Blue Jays MLB same-game parlay
- Toronto alt +1
- Under 10.5
BetRivers SGP price: +103
We originally were going to get Brown vs. Bieber on Monday night, but because Toronto's Sunday game at Wrigley Field was rained out, the team opted use ace Dylan Cease on Monday when it was his turn Sunday. That worked out in a 4-2 win.
To be clear, the Jays most likely are not repeating as American League champions, and even a repeat AL East title is probably out of reach as they sit 7.5 games behind the first-place New York Yankees. But the team is good enough to get a wild card spot, especially if Bieber is anywhere close to that 2020 guy.
The SportsLine Projection Model forecasts Toronto at 79.8 wins and a 40.1% shot at the playoffs, which equates to +166 on the money line. FanDuel has the club at -158 for the postseason. The Jays currently hold the AL's last WC spot by a game over the Athletics.
Toronto acquired Bieber from Cleveland last July for pitching prospect Khal Stephen, who has not reached the Show yet. Bieber went 4-2 with a 3.57 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in seven regular-season starts for the Jays and 2-1 with a 3.86 ERA in five playoff appearances spanning 18.2 innings.
I thought it was a lock that Bieber would decline his player option for 2026 and become a free agent, but he might have known he was hurting so he decided to exercise it at $16 million. Bieber was placed on the 15-day injured list in March with elbow inflammation and was later transferred to the 60-day IL.
He wasn't very good in five minor-league rehab assignments, spanning 17 innings with a 6.88 ERA and 1.88 WHIP. In his final one last Wednesday with Triple-A Buffalo, Bieber got up to 93 mph on his fastball and reached 80 pitches, so he shouldn't have a major restriction today.
Who really knows what Bieber has left as, after Tommy John surgery in April 2024, he has only made nine regular-season starts. The model has Bieber at 5.3 innings, 5.3 strikeouts, 5.1 hits allowed and 2.3 earned runs. He is 1-1 career in four starts vs. Houston with a 2.81 ERA. He did see the Astros last year after being dealt and allowed three runs over 5.2 innings in a no-decision. DraftKings has him at +156 to win and Over/Under 4.5 Ks.
The Blue Jays' rotation has been hit hard by injuries this year. Kevin Gausman had been the only member of that group to be a qualifying starter for big-league leaderboards, but Cease got there Monday. Cease, Max Scherzer and Trey Yesavage have all made trips to the injured list, with Scherzer going there twice. Patrick Corbin was signed off the street in early April and was a godsend at first but has remembered he is Patrick Corbin and allowed 11 earned runs in his last 11 2/3 innings.
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Houston counters with lefty Peter Lambert (6-4, 3.23). The 29-year-old has been a huge surprise considering he entered 2026 with a 6.80 career ERA, although he had only previously pitched with the Colorado Rockies and obviously pitching games in Denver is rough. Lambert was 2-5 with a 5.72 ERA last year mostly as a reliever.
He didn't make the Astros' Opening Day roster out of spring camp and was granted his release to pursue other opportunities. But a few days later, Lambert opted to re-sign with the team on a minor-league deal. Lambert is 4-0 with a 2.83 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and .212 opponents' batting average in his past five starts. He has a six-pitch mix but mostly relies on his four-seam fastball and change-up, which is his best pitch.
"There were some internal talks, but no," Lambert said of whether he considered exploring other options this spring. "And I'm sure glad I stayed." This will mark his first career start vs. Toronto, as he has one relief appearance against the Jays. He is +184 to earn the win. If you had bet $100 on each of his starts for Houston to win in 2026, you would be up $237.
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Can't say I trust Bieber a ton, but the Jays are a different club at home and have a chance to get above .500 overall on the season for the first time since April 3. I added the +1 for some insurance. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.
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