SportsLine soccer expert Martin Green shares his best bets for Monday's EPL match between Arsenal and Burnley
By Brandon Gustafson May 17, 2026 at 9:47 am ET • 4 min read 
Arsenal can take another step toward winning the English Premier League title on Monday, May 18, when they host Burnley in an EPL clash. Arsenal have won each of their last three matches and have a two-point lead over second-place Manchester City in the EPL table. Burnley is a distant 19th and sits in the relegation zone.
Kickoff from Emirates Stadium in London is set for 3 p.m. ET. Arsenal are heavy -1200 favorites on the 90-minute money line (wager $1,200 to win $100) while Burnley are +2200 underdogs (wager $100 to win $2,200). A draw is +1100, and the total is 3.5 (Over -120, Under -110). In soccer money line betting, only a draw wager pays out if there's no winner after 90 minutes, and there's also prop betting and parlay betting available.
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Before locking in your wagers for Monday's EPL clash between Arsenal and Burnley, make sure to see what SportsLine soccer expert Martin Green has to say.
After working in the sports betting industry for several years, Green became a professional sports writer and handicapper and has covered the game worldwide. Last year, Green was profitable in multiple areas on his soccer betting picks, including Euro qualifying (+6.30 units), EFL Cup (+4.47), FA Cup (+3.07) and Champions League (+3.05), among others. Anyone who follows him could be way up.
Here are Green's best bets and analysis for Arsenal vs. Burnley on Monday.
Arsenal vs. Burnley best bets
Arsenal -2.5 (-118, 0.5 units)
Arsenal to win both halves (-120, 0.5 units)
Bukayo Saka to score (+130, 0.5 units)
Arsenal will take a giant stride toward winning the Premier League title if they beat Burnley at the Emirates Stadium on Monday.
The Gunners are two points clear of title rivals Man City at the top of the table after battling to a 1-0 victory over West Ham last weekend. They only have two games left to play this season, so they're within touching distance of clinching their first league title since 2004.
However, Man City are also surging with momentum, so Arsenal can't afford any slip-ups in the closing stages of the campaign. The stage is set for a tense, nervy game, but Arsenal's superior quality should ultimately shine through.
Robust defense leaves Arsenal on the brink of glory
Arsenal's dreams of winning the title looked in tatters after they lost 2-1 to Man City on April 19. That was their second consecutive Premier League defeat, and it wiped out their lead at the top of the table.
Rival fans were rubbing their hands with glee at the prospect of the Gunners blowing another glorious chance to win the Premier League. They've finished second for the past three seasons, and they looked on course to extend that unwanted record. However, the players didn't crumble under the pressure. Instead, they ground out a 1-0 win against Newcastle before beating Fulham 3-0 and West Ham 1-0.
Meanwhile, Man City could only draw 3-3 with Everton on May 4, allowing Arsenal to seize the initiative once again. The Gunners also beat Atlético Madrid 2-1 on aggregate in their two-legged Champions League semifinal, so they're unbeaten in five games. They've only conceded once in that five-game stretch, and that was after conceding a contentious penalty in Madrid. The Gunners haven't conceded a goal from open play in more than 500 minutes.
Goalkeeper David Raya has been magnificent, while central defenders Gabriel Magalhães and William Saliba look rock-solid. The Gunners have injury problems in the full-back positions, but the Raya-Gabriel-Saliba axis makes them extremely robust.
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Can Burnley throw a spanner in the works?
Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta couldn't have wished for an easier two games at the end of this long season. First, they're at home against Burnley, who have already been relegated. The Clarets have a miserable away record this season: two wins, three draws, and 13 defeats from 18 games, with 20 goals scored and 45 conceded.
Arsenal will then play Crystal Palace away on the final day of the season. Palace are a good team, but they will have one eye on the Europa Conference League final, which takes place in Germany just three days later. For that reason, Palace manager Oliver Glasner could rest his key players.
Most online sportsbooks now make Arsenal the -500 or -550 favorite to win the Premier League title. However, the players can't afford to lose their focus. They have a strong home record this season: 14 wins, two draws, and two defeats from 18 games at the Emirates. The Gunners have kept clean sheets in 10 of those 18 games and have only conceded 0.61 goals per game at home this season.
It's also worth noting that Arsenal picked up a 2-0 away win against Burnley earlier in the campaign, courtesy of first-half goals from Viktor Gyökeres and Declan Rice. The Gunners are unbeaten against Burnley since 2020.
The Clarets are playing with freedom after their relegation was confirmed, and they drew 2-2 with Aston Villa last weekend. However, they're unlikely to get as many chances against this formidable Arsenal defense. This is the sort of game that Gyökeres enjoys playing in. He's scored 21 goals this season, and most of them have come against struggling teams.
Bukayo Saka is also back from injury, and his return has inspired Arsenal to crucial victories over Fulham, Atlético Madrid and West Ham. Fellow forward Leandro Trossard also looks back to his best, and the Gunners have a lot of firepower on the bench, so it would be a major calamity if they failed to beat Burnley on Monday.
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