Arsenal survive injuries, nerves to beat Newcastle: Is a Premier League title race supposed to be this hard?

Kai Havertz and Eberechi Eze left injured as Arsenal ginded out all three points on Saturday

LONDON -- It cannot possibly be this hard and end in a Premier League title, can it? The footballing gods would not demand such a heavy toll to crown Arsenal champions of England for the first time in a generation?

Mikel Arteta would tell you it can. "I don't expect, after 22 years of not winning it, that it's going to be a path of roses and beautiful music around it," he said. "It's going to be like this, and we are ready for it."

Honestly, though, Mikel, it can't be like this. The price of three points cannot be two injuries that degrade Arsenal's attack, an hour spent watching from behind the metaphorical (or perhaps actual) sofa. A 1-0 win at home to 14th-placed Newcastle United did not have to be as terrifying as it was, and it probably would not have been if Kai Havertz and Eberechi Eze had seen the day out.

The hope will be that Arteta was accurate in his assessment that both his forwards had suffered the sort of niggles that might even allow them to return in time for Wednesday's Champions League semifinal first leg at Atletico Madrid. Eze too said that his substitution early in the second half was "just a precaution." What a relief that would be for those Arsenal fans who were put through the emotional threshing machine once more, another season seemingly torn apart by injuries.

With Eze and Havertz in the lineup today, Arsenal looked good enough. Not great. Not at the quality level that they had displayed at the Etihad. But a team that was good enough to do what was required of them for four more league games.

Losing Havertz in particular proved to be a heavy blow. The hosts at least looked able to make the ball stick in the opposition half before their forward went down in pain. With his exit, Arsenal lost their outball, the roving forward whose movement was creating channels for wide runners to dart into central spaces. 

Without him, it got worse. In the 34 minutes before the first substitution Arsenal had 12 penalty box touches. They barely doubled that number in the remaining two-thirds of the game plus added time with just 15. 

Now, of course, there are redeeming traits to Viktor Gyokeres. His 18 goals have helped Arsenal to get where they are today, just about ahead of Manchester City with four league games left to play. Get him a shot, and the ball tends to stay hit. He is a willing runner down the channel, and for the second time this season, Arsenal found themselves baffled by a referee's decision when Nick Pope wiped him out to receive a yellow. "Talk to any of the players," said Arteta, "because the trajectory where the ball is, there's no keeper there. If that were to happen the other way around [Malick Thiaw fouling Gyokeres as the last man], it's a red card."

There were moments, Gyokeres hoofing clear a set piece, chasing the ball, and forcing a turnover from Sandro Tonali. There might have been a chance to really test Pope if Martin Odegaard had released a pass quickly. The moment that sticks with you, however, is not that. It is, of course, the pass that picked out Thiaw when Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli sprinted through to kill the game off in added time.

Even moments like that might be mitigated against if Gyokeres were doing the thing he was bought to do, translating the relentless volume of shots he accrued in Portugal to the Premier League. No one could have reasonably expected the goal-a-game force who blitzed Sporting to titles, but in an hour of football, it cannot be enough to deliver one shot worth 0.03 xG.

When so many of the other bars in the image below are deepest red, you simply have to be offsetting that with a high volume of high-quality shots that result in a lot of goals. One of the most consistent commonalities between elite strikers is that they get their shots, whatever the team they play in, whether the style suits them or not. Gyokeres averages 2.1 per 90.

He was not alone in struggling. Noni Madueke started this season brightly, but doesn't look like the darling of the stats community anymore. Last season he averaged 3.54 shots per 90 Premier League minutes and 0.42 xG. This season, his shots have nearly halved to 1.84, his xG of 0.09 about half that of multiple Arsenal fullbacks. Earlier this month, I noted how Arsenal's open-play xG craters when Madueke and Gyokeres share the pitch with Gabriel Martinelli, albeit with the caveat that it had not happened that often. Well, it's happening more and more, and it's not looking great.

Between the 53rd and 81st minute, the period after match-winner Eze went down on the edge of his box, and before Saka's return from injury, Arsenal took three shots and reached the Newcastle penalty area on three separate occasions. The excellence of their defense just about kept them in the ascendancy, but it was in this spell that the Emirates stared down at the precipice, Yoane Wissa scooping a volley over David Raya's crossbar.

Worryingly for a team that had just had a week off, Arsenal tired as the game wore on. Martin Zubimendi had played 81 minutes despite being ill, and this proved to be another game where the league leaders desperately wished for at least one Mikel Merino. Two wouldn't be shabby either, given that the Spain international might have alleviated some of the strain up front as well as in midfield. Or if Arteta hadn't evidently lost belief in Christian Norgaard's impact beyond the clubhouse. Instead, Myles Lewis-Skelly got the midfield minutes that have always been such an intriguing prospect, just in the most stressful of circumstances.

"We did the job," said Arteta. "We should have finished with a bigger margin in certain moments of the game, but when it's 1-0 it's always tough because they have quality, because they brought so many good players on the bench as well. And when we don't finish the action, especially the open ones that we had, the margin is going to be smaller."

This was winning a Premier League title in spite of yourselves, raising your own rent because that's how much you believe in your hustle. It was just a moment though. Saka's introduction restored some control and guile to the final third. "He has some very good impact as well in the minutes that he's played," said Arteta. "He's back, I think he looks sharp, he looks good, he looks fresh. You certainly notice something different in the team, in the stadium as well, when he comes in, so we certainly need that."

He, Havertz and Odegaard have not lost an Arsenal game in which they shared the pitch for over two years. That is not entirely surprising given that they have not started a game together since late 2024. Add Eze to the equation, a player whose resolute commitment to pulling the trigger when space opened up delivered the winner, and you have what looks like an extremely interesting attack on paper. It will remain that way for now, given that these four have still not played a minute together.

Perhaps if Arteta's first assessment of the injury situation proves to be accurate, then this run-in might be a bit more roses and beautiful music than he expects.