Arkansas vs. Arizona odds, March Madness predictions: 2026 NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 picks from proven model

SportsLine's model simulated Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Arizona Wildcats and revealed its college basketball picks for this NCAA Tournament 2026 Sweet 16 matchup on Thursday

The fourth-seeded Arkansas Razorbacks take on the top-seeded Arizona Wildcats in a 2026 NCAA Tournament West Region Sweet 16 matchup on Thursday. Arkansas is coming off a 94-88 last-second victory over potential Cinderella High Point on Saturday in the second round, while Arizona defeated Utah State 78-66 on Sunday. The Razorbacks (28-8), who won the SEC Tournament, have won seven in a row. The Wildcats (34-2), who won the Big 12 regular-season and the conference tournament, have won 11 straight. 

Tipoff from SAP Center at San Jose is set for 9:45 p.m. ET on CBS. Arizona is a 7.5-point favorite in the latest Arkansas vs. Arizona odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 166.5. Before making any Arizona vs. Arkansas picks, check out the Arkansas vs Arkansas predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered the 2026 Sweet 16 on a sizzling 11-1 run on its top-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season, and is on a 28-22 run on top-rated CBB side picks.

Now, the model has simulated Arkansas vs. Arizona 10,000 times and just revealed its college basketball picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several college basketball odds and college basketball lines for Arkansas vs. Arizona:

Arkansas vs. Arizona spread:    

Arizona -7.5

Arkansas vs. Arizona over/under:    

166.5 points

Arkansas vs. Arizona money line:    

Arizona -352, Arkansas +277

Arkansas vs. Arizona picks:    

Arkansas vs. Arizona TV:

CBS

Top Arkansas vs. Arizona predictions

After 10,000 simulations of Arkansas vs. Arizona, SportsLine's model is going Under on the total (166.5 points). The total has gone Under in five of the Wildcats' last seven games played on a Thursday. Arizona's last game also came in Under the total. The Razorbacks are 5-0 against the spread in their last five games played on a Thursday.

The model projects the Razorbacks to have three players score 12.7 points or more, including Darius Acuff Jr., who is projected to score 20.4 points. The Wildcats are projected to have five players score 10.9 points or more, led by Brayden Burries, who is projected to score 15.6 points. The model is projecting 164 combined points as the Under clears in 60% of simulations. You can get the spread pick at SportsLine.

How to make Arkansas vs. Arizona picks

Now, the model simulated every possession of Arkansas vs. Arizona 10,000 times and says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Arkansas vs. Arizona, and which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Arkansas vs. Arizona spread to back, all from the advanced model that just simulated this game 10,000 times, and find out.