Arizona vs. Utah State odds, March Madness predictions: 2026 NCAA Tournament picks from proven model

SportsLine's model simulated Arizona Wildcats vs. Utah State Aggies and revealed its college basketball picks for this NCAA Tournament 2026 second-round matchup on Sunday

The 2026 NCAA Tournament continues with a must-see second-round contest on Sunday night, as the No. 1 seed Arizona Wildcats face the No. 9 Utah State Aggies in the West Region. The Wildcats easily handled LIU in the first round of March Madness by a score of 92-58. As for USU, it defeated No. 8 seed Villanova by 10 points to reach the second round. Utah State owns the 3-1 edge in the all-time matchups between the programs. The Aggies are seeking their first Sweet 16 appearance since 1970.

Tipoff from the Viejas Arena in San Diego is at 7:50 p.m. ET. Arizona won the last meeting in 2005. The Wildcats are 11.5-point favorites in the latest Arizona vs. Utah State odds, while the over/under is 154.5. Before making any Utah State vs. Arizona picks, check out the Arizona vs. Utah State predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered the 2026 NCAA Tournament on a sizzling 11-1 run on its top-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season, and is on a 28-22 run on top-rated CBB side picks. 

Now, the model has simulated Utah State vs. Arizona 10,000 times and just revealed its college basketball picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several college basketball odds and college basketball lines for Arizona vs. Utah State:

Utah State vs. Arizona spread:    

Arizona -11.5

Utah State vs. Arizona over/under:    

154.5 points

Utah State vs. Arizona money line:    

Arizona -847, Utah State +565

Utah State vs. Arizona picks:    

Utah State vs. Arizona TV:

truTV

Top Arizona vs. Utah State predictions

After 10,000 simulations of Utah State vs. Arizona, SportsLine's model is going Over on the total (154.5 points). Both squads have seen the Over hit more often than the Under this season, with the two seeing the Over go a combined 38-31. The total has been eclipsed in 60% of Utah State road/neutral-site contests, while the Over is 5-1 for Arizona when facing a team that allows between 67 and 72 ppg, as the Aggies do.

Additionally, the Over has hit in each of the last three Arizona games, while it is 6-3 over Utah State's last nine games overall. A total of nine players are forecasted to score more than 9 points as the teams combine for 157 points, per 10,000 simulations. That allows the Over to hit 55.1% of the time. You can get the spread pick at SportsLine.

How to make Utah State vs. Arizona picks

Now, the model simulated every possession of Arizona vs. Utah State 10,000 times and says one side of the spread hits nearly 60% of the time. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Utah State vs. Arizona, and which side of the spread hits nearly 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Arizona vs. Utah State spread to back, all from the advanced model that just simulated this game 10,000 times, and find out.