Alabama vs. Texas Tech odds, March Madness predictions: 2026 NCAA Tournament picks from proven model

SportsLine's model simulated Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Alabama Crimson Tide and revealed its college basketball picks for this NCAA Tournament 2026 second-round matchup on Sunday

The final game of the second round in the 2026 NCAA Tournament will pit the No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide against the No. 5 Texas Tech Red Raiders. Alabama is coming off a 90-70 win over Hofstra in the first round and is 24-9 on the season, while Texas Tech earned a 91-71 win over Akron and is 23-10. This will be the ninth all-time meeting between these two programs and the first time they've played each other during March Madness.

Tipoff for this Midwest Region matchup is scheduled for 9:45 p.m. ET at Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, Fla. The Red Raiders are 1.5-point favorites in the latest Alabama vs. Texas Tech odds, while the over/under is 164.5. Before making any Texas Tech vs. Alabama picks, check out the Texas Tech vs. Alabama predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered the 2026 NCAA Tournament on a sizzling 11-1 run on its top-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season, and is on a 28-22 run on top-rated CBB side picks. 

Now, the model has simulated Alabama vs. Texas Tech 10,000 times and just revealed its college basketball picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several college basketball odds and college basketball lines for Texas Tech vs. Alabama:

Alabama vs. Texas Tech spread:    

Texas Tech -1.5

Alabama vs. Texas Tech over/under:    

164.5 points

Alabama vs. Texas Tech money line:    

Alabama -106, Texas Tech -114

Alabama vs. Texas Tech picks:    

Alabama vs. Texas Tech TV:

TBS

Top Alabama vs. Texas Tech predictions

After 10,000 simulations of Texas Tech vs. Alabama, SportsLine's model is going Over on the total (164.5 points). This will be somewhat of a tempo clash, with Alabama ranking fourth in the nation in KenPom adjusted tempo (73.2) and Texas Tech ranking 253rd (66.1). However, both of these offenses are incredibly efficient, and the Red Raiders in particular have proven that they can play at just about any speed.

Alabama ranked third in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency (129.3) while Texas Tech ranked 10th (125.8), and both teams put up 90 points or more in their first-round matchups. The model predicts that the Over hits in 60% of simulations and projects that there will be 171 combined points scored on average. You can get the spread pick at SportsLine.

How to make Texas Tech vs. Alabama picks

Now, the model simulated every possession of Alabama vs. Texas Tech 10,000 times and says one side of the spread hits over 50% of the time. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Alabama vs. Texas Tech, and which side of the spread hits over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Texas Tech vs. Alabama spread to back, all from the advanced model that just simulated this game 10,000 times, and find out.