Alabama vs. Florida State prediction, picks, odds, spread: Crimson Tide look to avenge 2025 upset loss

Revenge will be at stake Saturday when No. 10 Alabama hosts Florida State in a nonconference blockbuster at Bryant-Denny Stadium. The Seminoles stunned the No. 8 Crimson Tide 31-17 in last year's season opener at FSU, setting the stage for a high-stakes rematch on Bama's home field.

Seminoles coach Mike Norvell's tenure could use another jolt of life like the one momentarily provided by last season's win over Alabama. On the flip side, the Crimson Tide can't afford another loss to FSU before entering the teeth of the SEC's first-ever 9-game conference schedule.

A year ago, Alabama recovered from the stunning opening defeat by reaching the SEC Championship Game and College Football Playoff. Florida State went the opposite direction, failing to capitalize on the early momentum and finishing 5-7.

This time around, we know more about both teams going into the meeting. The Crimson Tide enter off a 45-17 win at Kentucky that was equal parts ugly and spectacular. On the opposite side, the Seminoles are coming off a bye week that followed a gutting 27-24 loss to SMU in Week 1.

Alabama vs. Florida State: Need to know

Keelon Russell's development: The Alabama sophomore quarterback recovered nicely from a nightmare beginning to Alabama's 45-17 Week 2 win at Kentucky. Making his first career road start, Russell committed three turnovers in the first half before settling in and helping the Crimson Tide cruise to a convincing win. The performance underscored just how green Russell remains. Once he settled down and started taking care of the football, Alabama's defense carried the day and the Crimson Tide's rushing attack started to hum. There will come a time when Alabama needs Russell to be a hero. But that portion of the schedule has not arrived. Taking care of the football, mitigating Bama's pre-snap penalties and making the easy plays should be among his top goals against Florida State.

Mike Norvell noise: Now in his seventh year, Florida State coach Mike Norvell is just 39-35 (22-27 ACC) and trying to avoid a third straight losing season. The Seminoles looked unimpressive in a Week 0 victory over New Mexico State before dropping their ACC opener at home to SMU. Florida State fired athletic director Michael Alford on Monday, only furthering speculation about whether Norvell could be next. With a buyout north of $50 million, moving on from Norvell would be pricey. But FSU would have the option to spread that over the life of his contract, which runs through 2031. Florida State's schedule does Norvell no favors. In addition to nonconference games against Alabama and Florida, the Crimson Tide must face ACC stalwarts Louisville and Miami on the road in consecutive weeks next month.

Dominant defense: Alabama's defense showed a dominant side in the second half of a 45-17 Week 2 win at Kentucky. The Wildcats mustered just three first downs while averaging only 2.4 yards per play over the final two quarters. BUK never finished a drive in Alabama territory during the second half and finished just 3 for 18 on third and fourth downs. As the Crimson Tide began to dominate on defense, it created short fields for the offense, allowing Russell to settle in after a shaky start. It was an encouraging showing from the unit that should strike fear into an FSU offense that hasn't hit its stride.

How to watch Alabama vs. Florida State live

Date: Saturday, September 19 | Time: 3:30 p.m. ET Location: Bryant-Denny Stadium -- Tuscaloosa, Alabama TV: Channel | Live stream: Fubo (try for free)

Alabama vs. Florida State prediction, picks

Florida State played a quality SMU team close in Week 1, but don't be deceived. FSU won the turnover battle 4-1 and still couldn't win the game. Even if Alabama coughs it up as much as SMU did, the Crimson Tide proved last week at Kentucky that they can get past turnovers and still pull away to beat a quality opponent. This Bama defense is looking strong, and the run game is improved over last year. That takes the pressure off young starting quarterback Keelon Russell, who should be able to settle in and guide the Tide to a convincing revenge victory following last year's loss at FSU. Pick: Alabama -19.5

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