Michigan Democratic U.S. Senate primary candidate Abdul El-Sayed, foreground, addresses the crowd during a campaign rally, Saturday, July 18, 2026, in Detroit. (AP Photo/Jose Juarez) Perhaps the most contentious primary of the 2026 cycle comes to a head on Tuesday, when Michigan voters choose between Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) and progressive Abdul El-Sayed to face Republican Mike Rogers.
The contest, now one of the most expensive in the country — over $52 million has been spent, most of it supporting Stevens — figures to play a large role in control of the Senate.
A Democratic hold is vital to the party’s chances to retake the upper chamber, particularly as Maine increasingly looks like a tossup. For Republicans, flipping Michigan could cushion their majority or mitigate potential losses elsewhere, such as North Carolina or Ohio.
At the same time, the primary is the sharpest test yet of a question roiling Democrats: Can a democratic socialist-aligned progressive win statewide in a purple state, or only in deep-blue House districts?
To be sure, the contrast between the two candidates — and their general election viability — is stark. Stevens is a committed centrist backed by establishment Democrats, with endorsements from Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and the incumbent, Sen. Gary Peters.
On the other side is progressive-populist El-Sayed. Supported by progressive heavyweights Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), as well as Rep. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, El-Sayed is “campaigning on a sharply anti-Israel platform that also calls for abolishing ICE, raising taxes on the rich and making Medicare available to all Americans.”
According to the most recent data, El-Sayed appears to be gaining considerable momentum in the campaign’s final days. In the four latest surveys published by RealClearPolitics, El-Sayed holds a double-digit lead, including a 15-point lead (54 percent to 39 percent) in the newest Emerson poll. Likewise, prediction site Kalshi currently has El-Sayed’s odds to win at 96 percent, a 30-point increase since July 15.
A primary victory by El-Sayed would be one of, if not the, most significant win for the progressive movement in recent memory. However, progressives may be on the cusp of winning the battle only to lose the war.
Last week, a poll from the Michigan Education Association and Business Leaders for Michigan was released indicating just that. According to the survey, in a hypothetical general election, Stevens and Rogers are virtually tied, 46 percent to 45 percent, respectively. Conversely, Rogers led El-Sayed by 10 points, 49 percent to 39 percent.
Beneath the topline, the differences in viability for Stevens and El-Sayed are apparent.
Independents and Black voters, two vital demographics in Michigan, are significantly more likely to support Stevens than El-Sayed, repeating a theme seen in New York City, where the left wing struggles among Black voters.
With independents, whereas Stevens and Rogers are statistically tied, the Republican leads El-Sayed by 28 points. Similarly, Stevens’ advantage over Rogers with Black voters (69 points) is more than double El-Sayed’s margin over Rogers (37 points). Notably, the Emerson poll showing El-Sayed with a considerable lead also reported that among Black primary voters, Stevens led 58 percent to 38 percent.
This is not a one-off. Mitchell Research found that in a general election versus Rogers, Stevens’ support among Black voters was 17 points higher than El-Sayed’s.
Last week’s debate may have hinted at looming problems for El-Sayed in the primary, or for Democrats should he win.
El-Sayed repeatedly attacked Stevens over issues having little to do with Michigan — Israel, support for the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) and corporate donations — while Stevens focused on “portraying herself as a pragmatic lawmaker focused on delivering results for Michigan.” That contrast matters, as perceptions of El-Sayed as a “celebrity candidate” overlooking the state — and its voters’ needs — are not new.
CNN reported that in discussions with “prominent Black leaders” in the state, a “recurring complaint came up: El-Sayed’s support for ‘uncommitted’ in 2024.” The pro-Palestinian “uncommitted movement” is considered largely responsible for former Vice President Kamala Harris’ defeat in the state. That has exacerbated doubts “about El-Sayed’s priorities.”
As Rev. Dr. Wendell Anthony, president of the Detroit NAACP rhetorically asked of El-Sayed, “Are you going to be more concerned about the West Bank than the West Side of Detroit? Those tensions are markedly different from Stevens’ history of outreach to and support from Black voters.
On the Republican side, Rogers reportedly told a group of supporters that he would be “in good shape” if El-Sayed won, a sign that should alarm Democrats.
A coherent picture has now formed. Stevens and El-Sayed have staked out entirely separate coalitions: Black, older and voters without a college degree for Stevens — younger, white, college-educated and further left-leaning voters for El-Sayed.
If that seems familiar, it is. In New York City, multiple Democratic Socialist candidates won with identical coalitions, despite a lack of support from Democrats’ traditional base, which resembles Stevens’ coalition. Whether that model for left-wing candidates can be replicated in a purple state remains to be seen, but it will have tremendous implications for the future of the Democratic Party.
Ultimately, as the race nears its end, El-Sayed appears to have the momentum, though polls have swung all cycle, especially given the late withdrawal of Mallory McMorrow. If he does win, the odds that progressives will have won the battle only to cost Democrats the war will increase significantly.
Douglas E. Schoen and Carly Cooperman are pollsters and partners with the public opinion company Schoen Cooperman Research based in New York. They are co-authors of the book “America: Unite or Die.”
Add as preferred source on Google Tags Abdul El-Sayed Bernie Sanders Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) Gary Peters Gov. Gretchen Whitmer Gretchen Whitmer Haley Stevens Haley Stevens Maine Maine Democratic Senate primary Michigan michigan democratic primary Mike Rogers New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez North Carolina Ohio Rep. Haley Stevens Sen. Gary PetersCopyright 2026 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
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