The biggest World Cup ever with 48 nations, up from 32 four years ago in Qatar, kicks off today with a pair of matches in Mexico, while fellow co-hosts Canada and the United States play their first games Friday. It's the first time three nations have hosted the World Cup, and this year's event will include 12 groups of four teams each. The additional teams mean there will be 104 total matches at this event, compared to 64 in 2022, and now there's a Round of 32 knockout stage.
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I have no clue who wins the tournament but feel pretty comfortable saying that none of the three hosts will. Six host nations have won the World Cup, but not since France in 1998. I'll leave the futures picks to experts Martin Green and Jon Eimer but want to address the odds on which player wins the Golden Boot.
That goes to the player who scores the most goals in the tournament, whereas the Golden Ball is given to the tournament MVP. And the Golden Glove goes to the event's top goaltender. Just in case you needed a soccer refresher.
As you would expect, the Golden Ball usually goes to the best player on the World Cup champion, and that was Argentina's Lionel Messi four years ago when he became the first player to win tournament MVP twice (also 2014, when Argentina finished runner-up). Messi is +1200 to repeat there, with Spain's 18-year-old Lamine Yamal as the +700 favorite.
But I'll focus today on the tournament's top goalscorer, and France's Kylian Mbappe is the +550 favorite after winning the Golden Boot four years ago with eight goals, one more than Messi. Mbappe had a hat trick in that epic final loss to the Argentines – the second player in history to score one in a final after Geoff Hurst in 1966 for England (he didn't win Golden Boot that year).
Only two nations -- Italy (1934, 1938) and Brazil (1958, 1962) -- have repeated as World Cup champion and no player has won the Golden Boot in consecutive tournaments. Mbappe's 12 career World Cup goals are one shy of the French all-time record set by Just Fontaine (what a great name). He scored all 13 career goals in just six matches during the 1958 tournament in Sweden. That's an event record.
Mbappe had five goals in six qualifying matches and needs four this year to tie career World Cup mark of 16 set by Germany's Miroslav Klose. Mbappe is a -145 favorite to score the most goals for France, which is a +475 second favorite to win the Cup for the first time since 2018. The French try to become only the third team to reach the final in three consecutive editions after West Germany (1982, 1986, 1990) and Brazil (1994, 1998, 2002). If you are going to bet on the World Cup's leading goalscorer, you'd better bet a guy on a club that at least reaches the semifinals.
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BetMGM is more exposed on Mbappe than any other player on this prop, as he has taken the most tickets (18.6%) and handle (34.6%) and moved from an open of +600. The other three big movers at the book are England's Harry Kane, Portugal's Cristiano Ronaldo and Spain's Yamal.
Kane (shifted from +700 to +650) has eight career World Cup goals, two shy of the English record set by Gary Lineker. Kane also had eight goals in eight qualifying matches and would get to third all-time in caps for England should the country advance as expected.
Kane has made 112 international appearances and should pass Steven Gerrard (114) and David Beckham (115) in this tournament but won't catch No. 1 Peter Shilton (125). Kane is -230 to lead England in goals and is taking the second-most tickets (12.4%) and handle (21.9%) to top the tournament in goals.
It's surely the last World Cup for the 41-year-old Ronaldo (+2200 to +1600) as he eyes his first title and tries to become the first player to score at six different World Cups. Ronaldo has totaled eight goals in his five previous appearances and is one shy of tying the Portugal record of nine set by Eusebio. Ronaldo is +175 to lead his country in goals but might not even start.
Yamal is recovering from a torn left hamstring sustained on April 22 that sidelined him for the remainder of Barcelona's La Liga season. He was still named the league Player of the Year with 16 goals and provided 12 assists for the champs despite missing the final six matches with that injury. Yamal should be ready for the opener with La Roja as +450 tournament favorites.
Spain hasn't gotten past the Round of 16 since its lone title in 2010 in South Africa, when Yamal was about 2. He is taking the third-most tickets (12.1%) and handle (8.7%). Yamal is the +250 second favorite to lead Spain in goals behind Mikel Oyarzabal (+175).
The American player with the shortest odds for the Golden Boot is Christian Pulisic, way down at +5000 and taking little action because the USA is a +110 underdog simply to reach the Round of 16. We got that far four years ago and also in 1994, when the United States last hosted, but then lost immediately both times.
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