SportsLine's model simulated the Valero Texas Open 2026 10,000 times and revealed its surprising PGA picks this week after Collin Morikawa withdrew on Tuesday
By Daniel Lewis Apr 1, 2026 at 1:45 pm ET • 3 min read 
Imagn Images A two-event stop in Texas concludes this week with the 2026 Valero Texas Open beginning on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET at TPC San Antonio - The Oaks Course. Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy are both out this week ahead of major play, but there's still a strong Valero Texas Open field headlined by top-10 OWGR players such as Tommy Fleetwood and Russell Henley. The latest 2026 Valero Texas Open odds via FanDuel list Fleetwood and Ludvig Aberg as the +1500 co-favorites. Russell Henley (+1600), Jordan Spieth (+1800) and Robert MacIntyre (+1800) are among the other favorites. Collin Morikawa and Gary Woodland have both withdrawn from the field.
Before locking in any 2026 Valero Texas Open picks, entering any Texas Open one and done contests, or making any PGA DFS picks on sites like FanDuel or DraftKings, be sure to see the golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
SportsLine's proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, simulated every PGA Tour event 10,000 times and reveals golf betting picks that have a history of being extremely profitable.
This same model has also nailed a whopping 16 majors entering the weekend, including the 2025 Masters -- its fourth Masters in a row -- as well as last year's PGA Championship and Open Championship. Anyone who has followed its sports betting picks could have seen massive returns on betting sites.
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Now that the 2026 Valero Texas Open field is locked in, the model simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard, which you can use for PGA picks, one and done contests or Texas Open DFS lineups.
2026 Valero Texas Open predictions
One major surprise the model is calling for at the Texas Open 2026: It projects that Henley barely cracks the top 5 despite being one of the favorites. Henley has yet to finish inside the top 5 in any event this year, so the model isn't ready to project him near the top of the leaderboard. He finished fourth in this event in 2024, but didn't play it in 2025 and he finished T52 and missed the cut in his other two Texas Open appearances. See who else to fade here.
Another surprise: The model projects Sepp Straka as a top-10 contender despite him not being in the top group of favorites at +2700. The 32-year-old Austrian has finished inside the top 20 in four of his last five events, including a strong T8 finish at The Players Championship last time out. He struggled during his first two appearances at this tournament, but turned a corner last year, finishing T22 after a strong weekend, so the model likes his value this week. See who else to pick here.
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How to make 2026 Valero Texas Open picks
The model is also targeting several other longshots, including one at 30-1 who makes a stunning run for the title. You can only see the model's picks here.
Who will win the 2026 Texas Open, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Check out the 2026 Texas Open odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed 16 golf majors, including three in 2025.
2026 Valero Texas Open odds, favorites
Get full 2026 Valero Texas Open picks, best bets and predictions here. (odds via FanDuel and subject to change)
Tommy Fleetwood +1500 Ludvig Åberg +1500 Russell Henley +1600 Jordan Spieth +1800 Robert MacIntyre +1800 Si Woo Kim +2200 Sepp Straka +2200 Hideki Matsuyama +2200 Maverick McNealy +2700 Michael Thorbjornsen +3000 Rickie Fowler +3000 J.J. Spaun +3300 Denny McCarthy +3300 Alex Noren +3300 Keith Mitchell +3500 Ryo Hisatsune +3500 Johnny Keefer +4000 Nick Taylor +5500 Sudarshan Yellamaraju +4500 Thorbjørn Olesen +4500 Richard Hoey +4500 Marco Penge +5000 Alex Smalley +6000 Tony Finau +6000 Will Zalatoris +6000 Brian Harman +6000 Jordan Smith +6500 Stephan Jaeger +6500 Christiaan Bezuidenhout +7000 Austin Smotherman +7000 Davis Thompson +7000 Matt Wallace +7000 Max McGreevy +7000 J.T. Poston +7000 Mac Meissner +7000
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