SportsLine's model simulated the Valero Texas Open 2026 10,000 times and revealed its surprising PGA picks this week
By Daniel Lewis Mar 31, 2026 at 7:33 am ET • 3 min read 
Imagn Images A two-event stop in Texas concludes this week with the 2026 Valero Texas Open beginning on Thursday at TPC San Antonio - The Oaks Course. Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy are both out this week ahead of major play, but there's still a strong Valero Texas Open field headlined by top-10 OWGR players such as Tommy Fleetwood and Collin Morikawa. The latest 2026 Valero Texas Open odds via FanDuel list Fleetwood, Ludvig Aberg and Russell Henley as the +1600 co-favorites, followed by Texas native Jordan Spieth, Morikawa and Robert MacIntyre, all at +2000.
Before locking in any 2026 Valero Texas Open picks, entering any Texas Open one and done contests, or making any PGA DFS picks on sites like FanDuel or DraftKings, be sure to see the golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
SportsLine's proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, simulated every PGA Tour event 10,000 times and reveals golf betting picks that have a history of being extremely profitable.
This same model has also nailed a whopping 16 majors entering the weekend, including the 2025 Masters -- its fourth Masters in a row -- as well as last year's PGA Championship and Open Championship. Anyone who has followed its sports betting picks could have seen massive returns on betting sites.
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Now that the 2026 Valero Texas Open field is locked in, the model simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard, which you can use for PGA picks, one and done contests or Texas Open DFS lineups.
2026 Valero Texas Open predictions
One major surprise the model is calling for at the Texas Open 2026: It projects that Morikawa finishes outside the top five despite being tied for third in the odds and entering this event as the No. 8 player in the world. Morikawa had a strong run in the late winter, winning at Pebble Beach and finishing T7 at the Genesis Invitational and solo fifth at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He's only started in one event since that point -- The Players Championship -- and he quickly withdrew due to back pain. With the Masters up next week, he likely won't want to push too hard in this one, making him one of the favorites to fade this week. See who else to fade here.
Another surprise: The model projects Sepp Straka as a top-10 contender despite him not being in the top group of favorites at +2500. The 32-year-old Austrian has finished inside the top 20 in four of his last five events, including a strong T8 finish at The Players Championship last time out. He struggled during his first two appearances at this tournament, but turned a corner last year, finishing T22 after a strong weekend, so the model likes his value this week. See who else to pick here.
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How to make 2026 Valero Texas Open picks
The model is also targeting several other longshots, including one at 30-1 who makes a stunning run for the title. You can only see the model's picks here.
Who will win the 2026 Texas Open, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Check out the 2026 Texas Open odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed 16 golf majors, including three in 2025.
2026 Valero Texas Open odds, favorites
Get full 2026 Valero Texas Open picks, best bets and predictions here. (odds via FanDuel and subject to change)
Tommy Fleetwood +1600 Ludvig Åberg +1600 Russell Henley +1600 Jordan Spieth +2000 Collin Morikawa +2000 Robert MacIntyre +2000 Si Woo Kim +2200 Hideki Matsuyama +2200 Sepp Straka +2500 Maverick McNealy +2700 Michael Thorbjornsen +3000 Rickie Fowler +3000 Keith Mitchell +3500 Ryo Hisatsune +3500 Alex Noren +3500 J.J. Spaun +4000 Sudarshan Yellamaraju +4000 Denny McCarthy +4000 Johnny Keefer +4000 Daniel Berger +4000 Thorbjørn Olesen +4500 Marco Penge +5000 Nick Taylor +6000 Richard Hoey +6000 Jordan Smith +6500 Ricky Castillo +6500 Will Zalatoris +6500 Brian Harman +6500 Alex Smalley +7000 Austin Smotherman +7000 Mac Meissner +7000 Christiaan Bezuidenhout +8000 Tony Finau +8000 Stephan Jaeger +8000 Davis Thompson +8000 Max McGreevy +8000 J.T. Poston +8000 Billy Horschel +10000 Eric Cole +10000 Chris Kirk +10000 Tom Kim +10000 Kristoffer Reitan +10000 Bud Cauley +10000 Matt Wallace +10000 Patrick Rodgers +10000 Andrew Putnam +10000 Matt McCarty +10000 William Mouw +10000 Andrew Novak +10000 S.H. Kim +10000 Adrien Dumont de Chassart +10000 Haotong Li +10000 Mackenzie Hughes +10000
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