The U.S. Open is annually the toughest test in golf as it is, but this week's 126th staging of America's national championship is being played at arguably the toughest track in the rotation: Shinnecock Hills in Southampton, N.Y. Thus, don't be surprised to see zero players under par come Sunday evening, although that is a betting underdog at the various sportsbooks.
Shinnecock Hills Golf Club, founded in 1891, is a links-style track with sandy, rolling terrain and few trees that plays to par 70 at 7,440 yards. This will mark the sixth U.S. Open that Shinnecock has hosted, making it the sixth course in history to do so that often.
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Only twice has the U.S. Open winner there finished under par: Raymond Floyd at 1 under in 1986 and Retief Goosen at 4 under in 2004. When it last hosted in 2018, American Brooks Koepka repeated as champion – he's the last player to do so in this major – in finishing at 1 over. Koepka is +3200 this week after withdrawing Sunday at the Canadian Open with an injury. He says he's fine to tee it up in New York.
That 2018 tournament is the last major championship overall where no golfer finished under par, and the Over/Under winning score for this week at DraftKings is 278.5, with the Under a -148 favorite. Needless to say, someone would have to finish with a total of no worse than 279 to finish under par.
But only three golfers overall in a combined 659 U.S. Open starts at Shinnecock have finished under par – a scant 29 total guys have finished better than +5 -- and those were Floyd in '86, and Goosen and runner-up Phil Mickelson in 2004. Eight years ago here, the average score to par was +4.65, the highest at any U.S. Open since 2007 and fifth-highest in the past 40 years. The 1986 event is fourth on that list at +4.67.
The course record at Shinnecock is a 63, by England's Tommy Fleetwood in the final round back in 2018, which shot him all the way to a runner-up finish. It tied for the lowest final-round score in tournament history along with Johnny Miller in 1973 … and Fleetwood again in 2023 when he finished T-5. He is +2300 to win a first major title on Sunday. That anyone breaks the course record this week is +1200, and that we get a first-time major winner is +115 with No at -142.
Fleetwood is among 36 players in this year's field who played in the 2018 event; two big names who missed the cut that year were Rory McIlroy (+930 second favorite this week) and Jon Rahm (+1175 third favorite). Both are looking for a second U.S. Open title, and one would think Europeans like them would have a bit of an edge on a links-style course. But that a European wins this week is +168 compared to an American -142 – USA guys have won the past three U.S. Opens but no majors in 2026.
Almost amazingly, there hasn't been a playoff since Tiger Woods' epic 19-hole Monday defeat or Rocco Mediate in 2008 across the country at Torrey Pines. That format was changed years later, and a playoff is now two-hole aggregate. That there is a playoff this year is +410. Think I'm going to throw something down on that, as it is way overdue. That there isn't one is -575.
I mentioned Mickelson above, and he is one of three players who is a U.S. Open title shy of the career Grand Slam along with current world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler (+455 to win) and Sam Snead. Mickelson will miss the event for a second straight year for personal reasons, and he is 56, so he's most likely not going to get a U.S. Open title.
Scheffler's 30th birthday is Sunday, so how fitting would that be to complete the Slam? He would join Gene Sarazen, Ben Hogan and Tiger Woods as the fourth to do so on the first try. Scheffler didn't play the 2018 event at Shinnecock but has been T-7 or better in four of his past five U.S. Opens. He's -180 for a top-10 finish this week. Scheffler goes off at 8:14 a.m. ET on Thursday with reigning U.S. Open champion J.J. Spaun and 2025 U.S. Amateur winner Mason Howell.
To win, I'd probably just take an American but am leaning Xander Schauffele (+1900) as he finished in the top 14 in each of his nine appearances at the U.S. Open and was T-6 in 2018. He is the first golfer to finish in the top 15 in each of his first nine appearances in this event since Bobby Jones from 1920-30 (11 straight).
No player has won back-to-back majors on Tour since 2015, and surprise PGA Championship winner Aaron Rai of England is +11000 this week. His best U.S. Open finish was T-19 two years ago at Pinehurst.
We will see history on Thursday when Aussie Adam Scott tees off as he makes his 100th consecutive major championship start. Only Jack Nicklaus with 146 reached triple digits in a row. Scott's lone win in that span was the 2013 Masters, and he's +7400 to win the Open. Scott was T-2 through 54 holes last year but finished T-12 after blowing up in the final round.
It will be windy at times this weekend on Long Island, but rain should not much factor except perhaps a bit Thursday.
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