SportsLine's model simulated the PGA Championship 2026 10,000 times and revealed surprising picks heading into Round 4
By Daniel Lewis May 17, 2026 at 7:49 am ET • 3 min read 
Imagn Images The PGA Championship 2026 heads towards its conclusion with Round 4 beginning on Sunday morning at Aronimink Golf Club in Newtown Square, Pa. Alex Smalley nailed a birdie on 18 and three during his final four holes in Round 3 to get to 6 under for the tournament, putting him up two shots on the rest of the field. Some big names are chasing him, however, with Ludvig Aberg (-4), Jon Rahm (-4), Rory McIlroy (-3) and Xander Schauffele (-3) all within three strokes of the lead. Defending champion Scottie Scheffler is at 1 under for the tournament. The first tee times come at 7:40 a.m. ET, with the final grouping beginning at 2:35 p.m. ET.
Smalley is the +480 favorite (risk $100 to win $480) in the 2026 PGA Championship odds heading into Sunday, followed by Aberg and Rahm at +550 and McIlroy (+700). Before locking in any 2026 PGA Championship picks for Sunday, be sure to see the 2026 PGA Championship predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
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SportsLine's proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, simulated every PGA Tour event 10,000 times and reveals golf betting picks that have a history of being extremely profitable.
This same model has also nailed a whopping 17 majors entering the weekend, including the 2026 Masters -- its fifth Masters in a row -- as well as last year's PGA Championship and Open Championship. Anyone who has followed its sports betting picks could have seen massive returns on betting sites.
Now that the 2026 PGA Championship is heading into Round 4, the model simulated the rest of the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.
2026 PGA Championship Sunday predictions
One major surprise the model is calling for at the PGA Championship 2026 Sunday: It projects that Smalley finishes outside the top 5 despite carrying the two-shot lead into Round 4. He's defied the odds all weekend, shooting 67-69-68 thus far. It's been an admirable effort, but he's got a loaded leaderboard ready to pounce. His lack of experience with this type of pressure makes him a tough favorite to back, according to the model. See who else to fade here.
Another surprise: The model projects a bounce-back Sunday for Scheffler, as he is projected to get back in the top 5 despite entering Sunday at T23. He's now fired back-to-back rounds of 71, though he did shoot a first-round 67. Scheffler leads the PGA this season with a fourth-round scoring average of 67.22, so the model loves his value for outright bets at +1600, and makes him a strong play for top-5 bets (+230). See who else to pick here.
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How to make 2026 PGA Sunday picks
The model is also targeting several other longshots, including one going off around 40-1 who makes a stunning run for the title. You can only see the model's picks here.
Who will win the 2026 PGA Championship, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Check out the 2026 PGA Championship odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed 17 golf majors, including three in 2025.
2026 PGA Championship Sunday odds, favorites
Get full 2026 PGA Championship picks, best bets and predictions here. (odds via FanDuel and subject to change)
Alex Smalley +480 Ludvig Åberg +550 Jon Rahm +550 Rory McIlroy +700 Xander Schauffele +1200 Scottie Scheffler +1600 Aaron Rai +1800 Nick Taylor +1800 Patrick Reed +2200 Maverick McNealy +2700 Matti Schmid +3000 Hideki Matsuyama +4000 Min Woo Lee +4000 Chris Gotterup +4000 Justin Rose +4000 Joaquin Niemann +4500 Ben Griffin +6000 Brooks Koepka +6000 Kristoffer Reitan +6500 Cameron Smith +6500 Max Greyserman +8000 Chris Kirk +10000 Sam Burns +10000 Cameron Young +10000 Bud Cauley +10000 Rickie Fowler +10000
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