SportsLine's model simulated the PGA Championship 2026 10,000 times and revealed surprising picks heading into Round 3
By Daniel Lewis May 15, 2026 at 8:35 pm ET • 3 min read 
Imagn Images The PGA Championship 2026 heads into the weekend with Round 3 beginning on Saturday morning at Aronimink Golf Club in Newtown Square, Pa. Scottie Scheffler is the defending PGA Championship winner, and he's back in the mix this year at 2 under. He trails a group of eight golfers who are either 4 under or 3 under, with Alex Smalley and Maverick McNealy the co-leaders at 4 under entering the weekend.
Scheffler is the +390 favorite (risk $100 to win $390) in the latest 2026 PGA Championship odds entering the weekend via FanDuel Sportsbook. Cameron Young (+950), Ludvig Aberg (+1200) and McNealy (+1200) are among the other PGA Championship favorites entering Round 3. Young and Aberg are both 2 under. Before locking in any 2026 PGA Championship picks for the weekend, be sure to see the 2026 PGA Championship predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
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SportsLine's proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, simulated every PGA Tour event 10,000 times and reveals golf betting picks that have a history of being extremely profitable.
This same model has also nailed a whopping 17 majors entering the weekend, including the 2026 Masters -- its fifth Masters in a row -- as well as last year's PGA Championship and Open Championship. Anyone who has followed its sports betting picks could have seen massive returns on betting sites.
Now that the 2026 PGA Championship is heading into the weekend, the model simulated the rest of the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.
2026 PGA Championship weekend predictions
One major surprise the model is calling for at the PGA Championship 2026 weekend: It projects that Smalley, the co-leader, stumbles over the weekend and barely stays in the top 10. He's a golfer to avoid at +1300. Smalley fired a 67 on Thursday and followed that up with a 69 on Friday. The 29-year-old, however, has no career PGA wins, much less one in a major. He also has just one top-10 finish in a solo event this season, so the model is shying away from him as a serious contender. See who else to fade here.
Another surprise: The model projects a strong showing from Chris Gotterup, who is 3 under and has longer odds at +1500. He's projected to be a top-5 contender, making him a strong value for positional bets and a live underdog for outright bets as well. Gotterup remains the only player with multiple PGA wins this year, and he had a strong weekend at the Cadillac Championship recently, shooting a 65 and 69 on Saturday and Sunday, respectively. He has a top-25 finish in three of the four majors and finished third at the Open Championship last year, so the model is more confident that he'll be in contention on Sunday. See who else to pick here.
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How to make 2026 PGA Championship weekend picks
The model is also targeting several other longshots, including one going off around 30-1 who makes a stunning run for the title. You can only see the model's picks here.
Who will win the 2026 PGA Championship, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Check out the 2026 PGA Championship odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed 17 golf majors, including three in 2025.
2026 PGA Championship weekend odds, favorites
Get full 2026 PGA Championship picks, best bets and predictions here. (odds via FanDuel and subject to change)
Scottie Scheffler +390 Cameron Young +950 Ludvig Åberg +1200 Maverick McNealy +1200 Min Woo Lee +1300 Alex Smalley +1300 Hideki Matsuyama +1500 Chris Gotterup +1500 Jon Rahm +1600 Justin Thomas +2000 Si Woo Kim +2200 Rory McIlroy +2700 Patrick Cantlay +3000 Harris English +3500 David Puig +3500 Aldrich Potgieter +4000 Max Greyserman +4000 Kurt Kitayama +4500 Stephan Jaeger +4500 Xander Schauffele +5500 Jason Day +6500 Patrick Reed +7000 Brooks Koepka +7000 Jordan Spieth +10000 Aaron Rai +10000 Matt Fitzpatrick +10000 Collin Morikawa +10000 Rickie Fowler +10000 Andrew Novak +12500 Haotong Li +17500 Ryo Hisatsune +17500 Cameron Smith +1750
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