The final major of the year concludes on Sunday at Royal Birkdale as the 2026 Open Championship heads for Round 4. Lucas Herbert held a two-stroke lead entering the weekend, but shot a 1-over 71 on Saturday to drop three shots behind new leader Sam Burns. Burns and Herbert both tied a major record on Friday by each shooting a 62, but then Burns followed that with a 65 on Saturday. Burns is two strokes ahead of Si Woo Kim and Ryan Fox. Other big names still within striking distance include Bryson DeChambeau (-6), Ludvig Aberg (-6), Tommy Fleetwood (-5) and Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm, both at 4 under.
Burns is the +125 favorite in the 2026 Open Championship odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, followed by Kim at +500 and Fox at +750. DeChambeau is priced at +1300, while Scheffler is a longer shot at +2700. Before locking in any 2026 Open Championship picks, be sure to see the 2026 British Open predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
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SportsLine's proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, simulated every PGA Tour event 10,000 times and reveals golf betting picks that have a history of being extremely profitable.
This same model has also nailed a whopping 17 majors entering the weekend, including the 2026 Masters -- its fifth Masters in a row -- as well as last year's PGA Championship and Open Championship. Anyone who has followed its sports betting picks could have seen massive returns on betting sites.
Now that the 2026 Open Championship is heading into Round 4, the model simulated the rest of the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.
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2026 Open Championship Sunday predictions
One major surprise the model is calling for at the Open Championship 2026: Herbert, who is tied for fourth heading into Sunday, falls all the way out of the top 10. He's a golfer to fade in Open Championship Sunday best bets. Based on his major history and Round 1 and Round 3 this year, the second-round 62 appears to be an outlier. The model isn't take a shot on him at +2000 and also recommends a fade in positional bets such as top 5 and top 10. See who else to fade here.
Another Open Championship prediction from the model: Aberg makes a strong run on Sunday. He's a strong value at +1600 to win, and is worth considering at +125 as a top-5 finisher. He's bounced back nicely from his first-round 71, shooting a 66 in Round 2 and a 67 in Round 3. He has a career top 5 in the Masters and PGA Championship, and now he's well-positioned to add one at the Open Championship. See who else to pick here.
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How to make 2026 Open Championship Sunday picks
The model is also high on several other longshots, including one golfer going off at nearly 30-1 who makes a surprising run. You can only see the model's picks here.
Who will win the 2026 Open Championship, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Check out the 2026 Open Championship odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed 17 golf majors, including three in 2025.
2026 Open Championship weekend odds, field
Get full 2026 Open Championship picks, best bets and predictions for Sunday here. (odds via FanDuel and subject to change)
Sam Burns +125 Si Woo Kim +500 Ryan Fox +750 Bryson DeChambeau +1300 Ryan Gerard +1500 Ludvig Åberg +1600 Lucas Herbert +2000 Tommy Fleetwood +2200 Scottie Scheffler +2700 Jackson Suber +3500 Jon Rahm +4500 Xander Schauffele +6500 Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen +8000 Shane Lowry +10000 Hideki Matsuyama +10000 Cameron Young +15000 Rory McIlroy +17500 Daniel Brown +17500 Justin Thomas +17500 Eric Cole +17500 Robert MacIntyre +17500 Jacob Bridgeman +35000 Collin Morikawa +35000 Max Homa +35000 Kazuma Kobori +35000 Sungjae Im +50000 Alex Smalley +50000 Cameron John +50000 Nico Echavarria +50000 Matt Wallace +75000 Rickie Fowler +100000 Peter Uihlein +100000 Sepp Straka +100000 John Parry +100000 Matthew Southgate +100000 Bud Cauley +100000 Min Woo Lee +100000 Pierceson Coody +100000 Chris Gotterup +100000 Sahith Theegala +100000 Marco Penge +100000 Brooks Koepka +100000 Hennie du Plessis +100000 Jesper Svensson +100000 Alex Fitzpatrick +100000 Corey Conners +100000 Naoyuki Kataoka +100000 Jordan Smith +100000 MJ Daffue +100000 Marcus Plunkett +100000 Adam Scott +100000 Eugenio Chacarra +100000 Russell Henley +100000 Kurt Kitayama +100000 JJ Spaun +100000 Shaun Norris +100000 Laurie Canter +100000 Keegan Bradley +100000 Thomas Detry +100000 Kristoffer Reitan +100000 Kazuki Higa +100000 Casey Jarvis +100000 Patrick Cantlay +100000 Nick Taylor +100000 Tyrrell Hatton +100000 Michael Brennan +100000 Ben Griffin +100000 Alex Noren +100000 Andy Sullivan +100000 Ryo Hisatsune +100000 Francesco Molinari +100000 Jack McDonald +100000 Jose Luis Ballester +100000 Patrick Reed +100000 Johnny Keefer +100000 Michael Thorbjornsen +100000 Victor Perez +100000 Aldrich Potgieter +100000
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