2026 NCAA Tournament: One factor that will determine each Sweet 16 game in March Madness

One question that each Sweet 16 game will hinge on as NCAA Tournament action resumes this week

Look no further than the roster of coaches who will be patrolling the sidelines for the Sweet 16 as evidence of the intrigue coming during the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament. Among them are national title winners John Calipari (Arkansas), Rick Pitino (St. John's), Dan Hurley (UConn) and Tom Izzo (Michigan State).

The non-title winners are no slouches, either. All but two of them appeared on our preseason ranking of the Top 25 And 1 college basketball coaches. As such, the schematic battles will be fierce with these coaches and their staffs looking for any Xs and Os edge they can find.

One advantage to a chalky first weekend is that it creates compelling games for the remainder of the Big Dance. There are no double-digit point spreads for the Sweet 16, although Michigan -- currently a 9.5-point favorite vs. Alabama -- could get there.

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With that in mind, here's a look at the top question looming over every Sweet 16 matchup before March Madness officially resumes on Thursday.

Thursday games

(11) Texas vs (2) Purdue

Can Purdue keep Texas off the free-throw line?

Texas ranks No. 12 nationally in free-throw attempts per game at 25.7 as the Longhorns draw a whopping 20.9 fouls per contest, which is No. 2 in the country. By contrast, Purdue attempts just 17.1 free throws per game, which ranks 324th. If the Longhorns are able to bait Purdue into fouling and make it a whistle-happy affair, they will have a chance. Texas is 8-1 when attempting 30 or more free throws this season.

(9) Iowa vs (4) Nebraska

Can Iowa limit itself to fewer than 12 turnovers?

Iowa must limit its turnovers if it wants to win the rubber match with its neighbor. The Hawkeyes committed a season-worst 19 of them in an 84-75 overtime road loss against the Cornhuskers to close the regular season. When committing 13+ turnovers this season, Iowa is 3-4. Nebraska forces you to play deep into the shot clock, and Iowa is fine with that. But it can lead to some frantic endings to possessions. Nebraska is 15-1 when forcing 12+ turnovers this season.

(4) Arkansas vs (1) Arizona 

Will Meleek Thomas get to 18 points?

Arkansas is just 5-4 when Meleek Thomas scores 10 points or fewer. But the Razorbacks are 23-4 when he scores more than 10 points and 10-1 when he reaches 18+ points. It's a foregone conclusion that Darius Acuff Jr. is going to get buckets for the Razorbacks, regardless of what Arizona throws at him defensively. But what kind of support will he get from Thomas? It will be critical that Arizona make life hard on Acuff's leading sidekick.

(3) Illinois vs (2) Houston

Can Houston get to 12 offensive rebounds?

Illinois is an elite offensive rebounding team. But its challenge on Thursday will be keeping Houston off the offensive glass on the other end of the floor. The Cougars are 12-1 when grabbing 12+ offensive rebounds. Illinois is just 3-3 when allowing 13+ offensive rebounds. It's going to be a battle on the boards.

Friday games

(5) St. John's vs (1) Duke

Can Duke hold St. John's to 10 fastbreak points or less?

Duke's defense ranks No. 1 at KenPom entering the Sweet 16. The Blue Devils have been through ebbs and flows on that side of the ball, but they are lethal when fully engaged. That's why St. John's needs to score, at a minimum, 10 fastbreak points. The Red Storm doesn't have a true point guard, and Duke's size and switchable defense will make getting buckets from traditional sets a chore. Transition opportunities -- via turnovers or long rebounds -- can be a workaround.

(4) Alabama vs (1) Michigan

Can Alabama make 15 triples?

The only way Alabama stands a chance is to bomb Michigan into submission. The Crimson Tide is 2-4 this season when making fewer than 10 3-pointers. They are 8-2 when making 15 or more. It might take 15 for Bama to stand a chance. The only team to hit that many against Michigan this season was Wisconsin, which did it twice. The Badgers and Wolverines split those two games, which were decided by a combined point differential of zero.

(3) Michigan State vs (2) UConn

Can Solomon Ball return to form and score 15 points?

UConn is 13-0 when Solomon Ball scores 15+ points. Among the victories were marquee wins over Florida, Kansas and Illinois. But the junior guard is coming off his first scoreless game since UConn's 2024 national title victory over Purdue. Ball logged just 13 minutes in the Huskies' second-round win, which was his fewest in a game over the past two seasons. Getting Ball going is vital for UConn.

(6) Tennessee vs (2) Iowa State

Who scores more? Joshua Jefferson or Nate Ament?

The star forwards for both teams are banged up, which is a storyline looming large over this matchup. Tennessee freshman phenom Nate Ament soldiered through the first weekend despite being in obvious discomfort following a leg injury suffered against Alabama on Feb. 28. Iowa State star Joshua Jefferson was unavailable for the Cyclones' 82-63 win over Kentucky in the second round after suffering an ankle injury in the first round. Whoever can get more from their hobbled NBA prospect will be in good shape.