Stephen Oh, the data engineer behind the SportsLine Projection Model, explains why there is still a gap between the sportsbooks' odds and the model's implied odds as the Eastern and Western Conference Finals begin
By Gene Menez May 18, 2026 at 1:42 pm ET • 3 min read 
The reigning champion Oklahoma City Thunder are threatening to turn the NBA Playoffs into the Oklahoma City Invitational.
The Thunder have swept both of their first two opponents, the Suns and Lakers, in four games. The team's average margin of victory in the playoffs is an obscene 16.6 points per game.
Accordingly, newly crowned NBA MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder are overwhelming favorites to lift the Larry O'Brien Trophy for a second consecutive season. Entering Monday night's Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals against the Spurs at the Paycom Center, Oklahoma City is a -170 favorite to win the NBA Finals. The team was +115 entering the postseason.
The Spurs (+310), Knicks (+550) and Cavaliers (+2000) complete the field.
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But the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and entered the conference finals of the 2026 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 26-10 roll (72%) on top-rated NBA spread betting picks this season, does not see any value in a futures bet on the Thunder. Even though the model's simulations say Oklahoma City has the best chance to lift the trophy, at 46.3%, that's not enough given the odds.
Instead, the model remains high on another team.
Knicks -265 to win Eastern Conference Knicks +550 to win NBA Finals
- Eastern Conference finals implied odds: 72.6%; Model odds: 84.4%
- NBA finals implied odds: 15.4%; Model odds: 32.7%
The SportsLine Projection Model has been high on Jalen Brunson & Co. the entire postseason, and the Knicks' Eastern Conference semifinal series sweep of the 76ers only solidified that.
New York is on a roll. Only one game in the four-game series against Philadelphia was decided by fewer than 14 points. The team also has won seven straight playoff games (the longest streak in franchise history), and many of those games haven't been close. The Knicks have played 10 games this postseason, and their point differential is +194. That's the largest point differential in the first 10 games of a postseason by any team in NBA history.
New York will have home-court advantage over the Cavaliers when the Eastern Conference Finals begin on Tuesday at Madison Square Garden. The home team won each of the three meetings during the regular season, with the Knicks taking the season series 2-1.
The SportsLine Projection Model gives the Knicks an 84.4% chance to advance to the NBA Finals, which is greater than the implied odds of 72.6%.
The model also has greatly enhanced New York's chances to win the franchise's first title since 1973. After entering the playoffs with a 7.3% chance to win the whole thing, the Knicks are now at 32.7% in the model's simulations. That's significant value over the 15.4% implied odds.
Stephen Oh, SportsLine's principal data engineer and the man behind the model, believes the sportsbooks are not considering New York's massive improvement in key metrics this season, such as:
- Point differential: +4 last season to +8 this season
- Road point differential: +1 last season to +5 this season
- Rebounding differential: +1 last season to +6 this season
"Because the faces and names are largely the same [on the Knicks], the oddsmakers are pricing the Knicks the same as last season," Oh says. "But a slightly different bounce of a few balls could have put the Knicks in the Finals [last year], and if that had happened they'd be priced like a contender, instead of a team that needs to 'prove they are worthy.' "
Spurs +210 to win series against Thunder
- Implied odds: 32.3%; Model odds: 33.8%
Outside of the Knicks, the SportsLine Projection Model does not see much value elsewhere on the odds board. The only other play would be San Antonio to upset Oklahoma City, at +210, which the model gives a 33.8% of happening. That's very slight value over the implied odds of 32.3%.
If the regular season is any indication, the Spurs have a big shot. They won four of the five games against the Thunder, becoming the only team to win the season series against the defending champs.
Victor Wembanyama enters the series having a postseason unlike any other player in NBA history. He is the only player in league history to average at least 25 points and five blocks per 36 minutes in a single postseason all-time (minimum five games).
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