The SportsLine Projection model has identified four NBA Playoffs value plays, with three of them coming on one Eastern Conference team
By Gene Menez May 4, 2026 at 2:15 pm ET • 3 min read 
Imagn Images The Celtics? Clipped. The Nuggets? Nixed. The Rockets? Removed. The 2026 NBA Playoffs are moving on without Boston, Denver and Houston, and on Monday night the Eastern and Western Conference semifinals begin with two Game 1s.
As the second round commences, the reigning champion Oklahoma City Thunder remain the favorites to lift the Larry O'Brien Trophy again, at -155 at FanDuel. They were +115 entering the postseason. The young Spurs are still the second choice, at +400.
But the elimination of the Celtics, Nuggets and Rockets have significantly altered the odds down the board. The Knicks (+900), Pistons (+1500) and Cavaliers (+2000) now round out the top five in the NBA Finals futures odds. The Lakers (+4000), 76ers (+4500) and Timberwolves (+10000) complete the field.
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The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and entered the second round of the 2026 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 26-9 roll (74%) on top-rated NBA spread betting picks this season, gives the Thunder the best chance to win the title at 49.5%. But with the odds at -155, the model does not like a play on Oklahoma City.
However, the model has found value elsewhere in futures betting. The simulations are especially high on one team in particular.
Knicks -270 to win series against 76ers Knicks +145 to win Eastern Conference Knicks +900 to win NBA Finals
- Eastern Conference semifinals implied odds: 73.0%; Model odds: 91.3%
- Eastern Conference finals implied odds: 40.8%; Model odds: 52.0%
- NBA finals implied odds: 10.0%; Model odds: 20.6%
The SportsLine Projection Model loves New York. And why not? The Knicks have looked like a different team in the playoffs, closing out the Hawks, 4-2. New York won the last three games of the series by 16, 29 and 51 — yes, 51 — points, with two of those games being in Atlanta.
Fans in Gotham should be ecstatic that the home team crushed the Hawks with Jalen Brunson needing only to be Robin and not Batman. While he was very good over the final three games (25.0 points per game on 52.8% shooting), Brunson entered the series averaging 29.9 points per game over his career in the postseason, the fifth-most in NBA history (minimum 40 games) behind only Michael Jordan, Luka Doncic, Allen Iverson and LeBron James.
The Knicks and 76ers split their season series 2-2, but Brunson & Co. won the last two games, including a 138-89 blowout in the last meeting, which was in Philadelphia. Though the 76ers also are playing like a different team now that Joel Embiid is in the lineup, the SportsLine Projection Model still gives New York a resounding 91.3% chance to win the series and advance to the Eastern Conference Finals.
The elimination of Boston also greatly enhances the Knicks' chances to win the East, according to the model. Entering the playoffs, New York had just a 19.0% chance to win the conference in the model's simulations. That has improved to 52.0% with the Celtics out and the top-seeded Pistons struggling against the Magic.
And that, in turn, has almost tripled the Knicks' chances of winning the whole thing. The model now says New York has a 20.6% chance to have a championship parade through the Canyon of Heroes. That's up from 7.3% entering the postseason.
Timberwolves +600 to win series against Spurs
- Implied odds: 14.3%; Model odds: 24.7%
The SportsLine Projection Model sees significant value with only one play in the Western Conference: Minnesota to beat San Antonio in the seven-game series. The Timberwolves advanced to the West semifinals by stunning Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets, 4-2.
Minnesota won two of the three matchups against the Spurs this season and has won five of the past six overall. With Rudy Gobert (7-foot-1) and three 6-foot-9 specimens in Jaden McDaniels, Julius Randle and Naz Reid, the Timberwolves have the size to throw at Victor Wembanyama while also causing matchup problems for the young Spurs on the other end.
The model gives Minnesota a better chance than the odds say, even knowing that Donte DiVincenzo is out for rest of the postseason and that Anthony Edwards (who averaged 36.7 points a game against San Antonio this season) is questionable to play in the first two games of the series with a hyper-extended left knee and bone bruise. Anything Edwards could contribute to Games 1 and 2 would be a bonus.
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