After 10,000 simulations, SportsLine's model reveals its top NBA picks today
By Daniel Kohn Apr 30, 2026 at 10:59 am ET • 2 min read 
Imagn Images Thursday's NBA playoff slate features three NBA playoff Game 6 matchups. In the Eastern Conference, the Knicks are 2.5-point favorites vs. the Hawks at 7 p.m. ET, while the Celtics are 6.5-point favorites over the 76ers at 8 p.m. ET. In the West, the Nuggets are 6.5-point favorites over the Timberwolves at 9:30 p.m. ET. The totals are 213.5, 212.5 and 224.5, respectively, in those matchups.
What are the NBA best bets for Thursday, and which combination of picks should you target in a Thursday NBA parlay? Before locking in any NBA picks, you'll want to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past eight-plus seasons. The model entered the second full week of the 2026 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 25-9 roll (74%) on top-rated NBA spread picks this season. Anyone following its NBA betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.
Now, the model has scoured the latest NBA odds and locked in three confident NBA best bets for NBA parlay sports betting. If you successfully parlay its picks, you'd be looking at a payout of over +600. You can only see the model's NBA picks at SportsLine.
Top NBA picks for Thursday, April 30
After simulating both games 10,000 times, the model is backing New York (-2.5) to cover the spread in the Knicks vs. Hawks matchup. New York is in position to close out the series 4-2, but Atlanta is on its home court, where it is 25-18 this season, including the playoffs. The Knicks had the 10th-best scoring offense in the league during the regular season, averaging 116.5 points. They also allowed the fifth-fewest points at 110.1. Jalen Brunson is projected by the SportsLine model to score 26.4 points on Thursday, as five Knicks in all are forecasted to score 11.3 points or more.
Jalen Johnson of the Hawks, meanwhile, is projected to score 21.9 points. In all, six Atlanta players are forecasted to score in double figures. The model is projecting the Knicks to win by three points, making New York (-2.5) the play in well over 50% of simulations. See which other NBA parlay picks to make here, and bet the Knicks at FanDuel right here:
How to make NBA playoff predictions for Thursday, April 30
The model also has locked in two more picks, including an over/under play that hits in more than 60% of model simulations. You can only see the model's NBA parlay at SportsLine.
What are the model's top NBA parlay picks for Wednesday, and which best bets should you target for a chance at a payout of over +600? Visit SportsLine now to see NBA best bets from a model that's returned more than $10,000 on top-rated picks, and find out.
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