SportsLine's golf model ran 10,000 simulations of the final round of the Masters 2026 at Augusta National Golf Club
By Daniel Lewis Apr 11, 2026 at 9:29 pm ET • 3 min read 
Imagn Images The 2026 Masters heads for Sunday with a new feel after Rory McIlroy's six-stroke solo lead evaporated on Moving Day. McIlroy is now tied with Cameron Young for the lead at 11 under after shooting a third-round 73 on Saturday. Young shot a third-round 65 to climb the leaderboard. Sam Burns (-10), Shane Lowry (-9), Justin Rose (-8) and Jason Day (-8) are all within three strokes of the lead. Scottie Scheffler returned to contention with a third-round 65 that has him at 7 under for the tournament.
The 2026 Masters odds heading into Sunday list McIlroy as the +135 favorite (risk $100 to win $135). Young is +240, Burns is +700, Scheffler is +1000 and Lowry is +1300 on what's become a much more crowded top of the odds board as compared to the one following Round 2. Before locking in any 2026 Masters picks heading into Sunday, be sure to see the 2026 Masters predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
SportsLine's proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, simulated every PGA Tour event 10,000 times and reveals golf betting picks that have a history of being extremely profitable.
This same model has also nailed a whopping 16 majors entering the weekend, including the 2025 Masters -- its fourth Masters in a row -- as well as last year's PGA Championship and Open Championship. Anyone who has followed its sports betting picks could have seen huge returns on betting sites.
Now that the first three rounds of the 2026 Masters are in the books, the model simulated Round 4 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.
Top 2026 Masters Sunday predictions
One surprise the model is calling for at the 2026 Masters: Rose, who has been steady all weekend with three rounds of 70 or lower, ultimately stumbles and falls out of the top 5. He's a golfer to avoid in outright and top-5 bets heading into Sunday.
Rose has been solid, but didn't post one of the extremely low numbers that golfers such as Scheffler, Russell Henley and Young produced on Saturday. He shot a 66 in the fourth round last year to force a playoff, but didn't go lower than 70 in his previous three Sundays at the Masters, so the model isn't backing him this year. See who else to fade at SportsLine.
Another surprise: Patrick Reed remains in contention and is a live longshot in the outright market (+7000), as well as a great value at -160 in the top-10 market. Reed had three straight birdies to open Round 3, but ultimately settled for a 72 on Saturday to put him at 6 under for the tournament.
The 2018 Masters winner has recorded four top-10s at Augusta since that point, including a solo third last year and a T4 in 2023. In both of those tournaments, he went lower than 70 on Sunday, so he's a golfer to target as a potential Masters sleeper pick heading into Round 4. See who else to back at SportsLine.
How to make 2026 Masters Sunday picks
The model is targeting a massive triple-digit longshot who surges up the leaderboard on Sunday and gets back into contention. Anyone who backs this golfer could hit it big. You can only see the model's Masters picks here.
So, who will win the Masters 2026, and which longshot will stun the golfing world? Check out the 2026 Masters odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected 2026 Masters leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed 16 golf majors, including four straight Masters.
2026 Masters odds, contenders
Get full 2026 Masters picks, best bets and predictions here. (odds via FanDuel and subject to change)
Rory McIlroy +135 Cameron Young +240 Sam Burns +700 Scottie Scheffler +1000 Shane Lowry +1300 Justin Rose +1500 Jason Day +2200 Patrick Reed +7000 Haotong Li +8000 Russell Henley +10000 Patrick Cantlay +12500 Collin Morikawa +15000 Jake Knapp +17500 Xander Schauffele +17500 Ben Griffin +35000 Tommy Fleetwood +35000 Brooks Koepka +35000 Matt Fitzpatrick +75000 Tyrrell Hatton +75000 Ludvig Åberg +75000 Sam Stevens +100000 Hideki Matsuyama +100000 Sungjae Im +100000 Chris Gotterup +100000 Adam Scott +100000 Michael Brennan +100000 Sepp Straka +100000 Harris English +100000 Rasmus Højgaard +100000 Nick Taylor +100000 Keegan Bradley +100000 Corey Conners +100000 Kurt Kitayama +100000 Sergio Garcia +100000 Aaron Rai +100000 Dustin Johnson +100000 Alex Noren +100000 Kristoffer Reitan +100000 Jacob Bridgeman +100000 Si Woo Kim +100000 Marco Penge +100000 Matt McCarty +100000 Jordan Spieth +100000 Brian Campbell +100000 Justin Thomas +100000 Charl Schwartzel +100000 Jon Rahm +100000 Wyndham Clark +100000 Ryan Gerard +100000 Maverick McNealy +100000 Brian Harman +100000 Gary Woodland +100000 Max Homa +100000 Viktor Hovland +100000
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