SportsLine's model simulated the 2026 Masters 10,000 times and revealed its surprising PGA Tour picks for Augusta National
By Ross Kelly Apr 8, 2026 at 4:46 pm ET • 4 min read 
Imagn Images The 2026 Masters begins on Thursday and Augusta National Golf Club is expecting a dry week for the first time in nearly 15 years. That means firm and fast conditions as the week progresses and an even larger emphasis on control around the already lightning-fast greens. Two-time Masters champions Scottie Scheffler ranks third on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: around the greens this season and he's been the No. 1 player in the world for nearly three years straight now.
Scheffler scored his 20th career tour win earlier this season and has racked up four consecutive top 10s at Augusta National, so it comes as little surprise that he's the +550 favorite in the 2026 Masters odds. Jon Rahm (+1000), Bryson DeChambeau (+1000), Rory McIlroy (+1300) and Xander Schauffele (+1500) are also among the other top Masters 2026 contenders. Before locking in any 2026 Masters picks, be sure to see the 2026 Masters predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
SportsLine's proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, simulated every PGA Tour event 10,000 times and reveals golf betting picks that have a history of being extremely profitable.
This same model has also nailed a whopping 16 majors entering the weekend, including the 2025 Masters -- its fourth Masters in a row -- as well as last year's PGA Championship and Open Championship. Anyone who has followed its sports betting picks could have seen huge returns on betting sites.
Now that the 2026 Masters field is locked in, the model simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.
2026 Masters predictions
One major surprise the model is calling for at the Masters 2026: Ludvig Aberg, one of the favorites and a golfer who has had two strong Masters appearances, finishes well outside of the top 5 this year. The 26-year-old has already racked up five worldwide wins in his career and he's finished solo second and solo seventh in two career starts at Augusta National.
However, he's down to No. 17 in the Official World Golf Ranking after peaking at No. 4 last year because of a string of bad starts late last season and early in 2026. He's also missed the cut in four of his eight career major championship starts and an afternoon-morning stagger on Thursday and Friday is likely to have him playing in firmer and faster conditions than most. See who else to fade here.
Another surprise: Tommy Fleetwood, a +2200 longshot, makes a strong run at the title. He has a much better chance to win it all than his odds imply, so he's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. The conditions this week will undoubtedly lend itself well to great ball strikers and players with a great short game, and Fleetwood qualifies in both regards.
He's fifth on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: tee-to-green (1.606) this season and is second in strokes gained: around the green (0.712). He's a career-best No. 4 in the Official World Golf Ranking entering the week and he's made the cut eight times in a row at Augusta, including a T-3 finish at the 2024 Masters. See who else to pick here.
How to make 2026 Masters picks
The model is also targeting two more stunning longshots higher than +4000, including one going off around +8000, to surge to the top of the leaderboard, potentially bringing a massive return. You can only see who they are at SportsLine.
Who will win the 2026 Masters, and which massive longshots will stun the golfing world? Check out the 2026 Masters odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed 16 golf majors, including three in 2025.
2026 Masters odds, field, favorites
Get full 2026 Masters picks, best bets and predictions here. (odds via FanDuel and subject to change)
Scottie Scheffler +550 Bryson DeChambeau +1000 Jon Rahm +1000 Rory McIlroy +1300 Xander Schauffele +1500 Ludvig Åberg +1700 Matt Fitzpatrick +2200 Cameron Young +2200 Tommy Fleetwood +2200 Hideki Matsuyama +2700 Robert MacIntyre +2700 Justin Rose +3000 Min Woo Lee +3000 Patrick Reed +3500 Collin Morikawa +3500 Si Woo Kim +4500 Jordan Spieth +4500 Brooks Koepka +4500 Chris Gotterup +5500 Russell Henley +5500 Nicolai Højgaard +5500 Viktor Hovland +5500 Akshay Bhatia +6500 Maverick McNealy +6500 Jake Knapp +7000 Shane Lowry +7000 Patrick Cantlay +7000 Justin Thomas +7000 Adam Scott +7500 Jason Day +7500 Sepp Straka +8000 Tyrrell Hatton +8000 Corey Conners +8000 J.J. Spaun +8000 Jacob Bridgeman +8000 Sam Burns +10000 Harris English +10000 Rasmus Højgaard +10000 Cameron Smith +10000 Marco Penge +10000 Sungjae Im +12500 Gary Woodland +12500 Kurt Kitayama +15000 Daniel Berger +17500 Ben Griffin +17500 Alex Noren +17500 Ryan Gerard +17500 Sam Stevens +20000 Keegan Bradley +20000 Harry Hall +20000 Aldrich Potgieter +20000 Kristoffer Reitan +22500 Max Homa +22500 Ryan Fox +25000 Casey Jarvis +25000 Aaron Rai +25000 Wyndham Clark +25000 Brian Harman +25000 Sergio Garcia +30000 Dustin Johnson +30000 Nicolas Echavarria +30000 Carlos Ortiz +30000 Michael Kim +30000 Max Greyserman +40000 Nick Taylor +40000 Haotong Li +40000 Matt McCarty +40000 Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen +40000 Andrew Novak +40000 Tom McKibbin +40000 Sami Valimaki +50000 Michael Brennan +50000 John Keefer +50000 Bubba Watson +75000 Charl Schwartzel +75000 Zach Johnson +75000 Davis Riley +100000 Angel Cabrera +100000 Mason Howell +100000 Fifa Laopakdee +100000 Ethan Fang +100000 Brian Campbell +100000 Vijay Singh +100000 Jose Maria Olazabal +100000 Brandon Holtz +100000 Naoyuki Kataoka +100000 Danny Willett +100000 Jackson Herrington +100000 Fred Couples +100000 Mateo Pulcini +100000 Mike Weir +100000
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